Nachoman's Baseball

Nachoman's Baseball is pretty much defunct for now...

2011-03-16T09:41:00.000-04:00

I've been writing at jacobsphysics for the last couple of years. Please check that out.

Oh, you're not interested in physics, eh? Well, you can check out some of Nachoman's Greatest Hits, especially starting here with the posts from the Harry Wendelstedt Umpire School.

Until I re-assume the Nachoman costume, I'll be working on revisions of the Everything Kids Baseball Book, and the Everything Kids Football book. I would truly love to get back to writing 4000 word weekly baseball columns. Someday.

NM

Brandon Phillips' runny mouth

2010-08-11T08:59:00.000-04:00

From Nachoman's neighbor and Cardinals fan Jason Getz, who still needs a food-related theme name.... he refers, of course, to Tuesday night's bruhaha in game two of the Reds-Cards series, the game that allowed the Cards to tie the Reds for first place:

"You know...if a player is going to run his mouth before a game, you think he'd at least have the decency to back up those comments during the game instead of starting a brawl."

Well, Yadi started it DURING the game.

Brandon Phillips shouldn't have run his mouth. Cincinnatians are on one hand thankful to have a fiery player who gives a #@$! for the first time since Pete Rose. On the other hand, the fans know that Mr. Phillips utterly deserves a good smack upside the shoulder with a fist or a fastball.

Remember, we're only two years removed from an outfield that included Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey, the "swing for the fences, strike out, and head to the clubhouse for a drink. Oh, did we lose? Sorry." duo. We love Brandon Phillips. And we haven't seen a real basebrawl since Rose vs. Pallone.

You should know that Marty Brennaman's continued theme throughout the broadcast was on the order of, "If you're gonna run your mouth like that, you'd better back it up. Look at what Molina did -- his yappin' started the brawl, but then he crushed a home run. Phillips is 1-10 in two games. Nuff said."

"Why do the Bengals...

2010-08-04T07:09:00.000-04:00

...sign so many head cases?" writes El Molé. "Inquiring minds want to know."

http://www.slate.com/id/2262321/ is the link he sent. In the Slate.com article, outed Bengals fan Robert Weintraub suggests that perhaps, for the sake of argument and reducing the desire for assasination, Mike Brown is signing criminals, idiots, and losers because they are undervalued in the current NFL marketplace.

"Huh, exploiting market inefficiencies," I told El Molé. "The hidden genius of Mike Brown."

"His master plan is to enter a third decade without a playoff win, because with the recent ascent of the Cardinals the "rooting for a shitty team" market remains underserved."

Just Say No to the Bengals

2010-07-28T08:03:00.002-04:00

So, in order to maintain my allegiance to the Bengals this year, I must root for noted malcontent and primadonna TO; noted executioner Pacman Jones; noted dumbarse Chad Ochocinco; and Mike Brown.

Even worse, the job performance of each of the above is highly overrated, and not particularly far above freely available talent.

Won't do it.

My Carson Palmer jersey will stay buried in a drawer this year.

NM

J.P Ricciardi and ESPN should be sentenced to umpire school

2010-06-03T09:13:00.002-04:00

To ESPN:

Okay, Jim Joyce blew the call. He owned it. He entered the Tigers locker room, apologized to Armando Galarraga, and admitted his mistake in front of God and the sports media.*

*...who too often seem to think that these terms are redundant.

Sportscenter's highlight package of the game was well-presented and fair, both to Mr. Galarraga and to Mr. Joyce.

However, then SC brought in two buffoons for the "expert" take. They started with a statement that Mr. Joyce's call is one of a series of blown calls unprecedented in the history of baseball. First of all, that's what passes for journalism today? You begin a segment with an inflamatory, prejudicial statement presented without evidence? For shame.

Okay, then came J.P. Ricciardi's "analysis." It would make sense to have an expert explain the mechanics of the first base umpire, to verify whether or not Mr. Joyce was in the proper position for the call. Problem is, Mr. Ricciardi showed himself to be an ignoramus about umpiring right off the bat.

The first rule of umpiring, one hammered into our heads at Umpire School**, one even written down in the rule book, begins (Rule 9.05): "Keep your eye everlastingly on the ball while it is in play." Mr. Ricciardi questioned why Mr. Joyce was watching the ball as the second baseman fielded it. Why? BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT A BASE UMPIRE IS TRAINED TO DO FROM THE FIRST DAY OF UMPIRE SCHOOL.

** I attended the Wendelstedt School in 2008

The proper mechanic on that play is for the first base umpire to watch the ball, and to take a couple of steps off the foul line into the field. When the throw is made, THEN the umpire snaps his head to the base in order to make the call. All kinds of things besides a routine play at first can happen on a grounder, and the base umpire is trained to be prepared for any of them.

Mr. Joyce was in correct position, and he followed correct mechanics. Mr. Ricciardi contends that the call at first should be based on sound, and so implied that the call is easy. That's true of a routine play when the first baseman is planted on the bag. It is a much more difficult call when the pitcher covers, because the sound of the glove hitting the mitt is irrelevant - all that matters is which foot touches first, the runner's or the pitcher's. Sure, a major league umpire needs to get that right, but I take issue with Mr. Ricciardi's inflammatory suggestion that the umpire should be able to call that with his eyes closed.

Mr. Joyce did everything right leading up to this play, but got the call wrong. He should be held accountable for missing the call. (That accountability should not include wikipedia death threats, obviously; but it should also not include ignorant ridicule by ESPN's talking heads.)

Mr. Ricciardi did everything WRONG leading up to his appearance on Sportscenter. He failed to understand the correct mechanics of the play, he failed to understand the nature of the call, he failed to recognize his journalistic responsibility to keep perspective and objectivity. For that he should be held accountable.

While I would prefer to see Mr. Ricciardi publicly humiliated for his poor judgement -- after all, he publicly humiliated Mr. Joyce -- I would be pleased to see Mr. Ricciardi sentenced to attend umpire school. Perhaps that might cure him of his ignorance on a topic for which your network has proclaimed him "expert."

Greg Jacobs
Woodberry Forest School
Woodberry Forest, VA 22989
greg_jacobs@woodberry.org

Cubs 6, Rockies 2... conversation with Deep Dish

2010-05-19T11:20:00.001-04:00

I worked the Cubs-Rockies game last night for STATS. Carlos Silva vs. Jhoulys Chacin. I've always wanted to see ESPN televise a spelling bee in which blowhard sportswriters and talking heads are given interesting sports names to spell. How many would get Jhoulys right? (Of course, they could come right back at me and ask me to PRONOUNCE Mr. Chacin's name. No luck there.)

Nachoman correspondent and #1 Cubs fan Deep Dish watched a bit of the game, and maintained some correspondence with me:

NM: Working the Cubs game, and I like G. Soto's catcher's gear -- it's white and blue, and looks sharp. Looking forward to seeing this Silva guy.

DD: Soto is back this year (he had a rotten 2009) -- hitting over .300, making good contact, solid at-bats (his OBP is astronomical, like .450 or something). Be sure to watch our new rookie at short: Starlin Castro. They moved Theriot over to second to bump him up to the majors, and he's had a great 2-3 weeks. Silva is good (believe it or not, we actually got him for Bradley -- is that the best trade of all time or what?). The Cubs are living proof that giving long-term contracts to guys who are around 28-30 is a BAD long-term move. Soriano is on one of his streaks, but Ramirez, Lee, and Zambrano have been poopy (although Lee started slowly last year and ended up having one of his best years ever).

NM: Best trade of all time: Bronson Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena. And Milton Bradley for a handful of Magic Beans would be a candidate for the best trade of the century.

I am a big fan of Mr. Silva already. He got lucky on a phantom tag on a double play that cost the Rox a run, but he's been awesome. 12 balls to 34 strikes.

DD: Wily Mo Pena: Is this a real name or some sort of joke?

NM: Just as real as "Jhoulys." Who has not endeared himself to me, walking the leadoff guy twice in four innings.

DD: As for Soto's catcher's outfit, I disagree with you -- he looks like a superhero. I'm too old school for white-and-blue catcher's gear...

NM: Nah, I like the hockey-style masks with the detailed artwork.

But I *hate* Rafael Betancourt. I'd like to see fire ants poured down his pants... and he can have them washed off when he's finally finished pitching an inning.

DD: Molasses. I watched an inning or two and almost fell asleep. You picked a decent game to work.

NM: "Decent" as in "close" and, from your perspective, "the Cubs won." Crappy in the "3:19 for 8.5 innings" sense. And crappy in the "FSN Rocky Mountain spent an inning ignoring the game in favor of a vapid interview with Lindsay Vonn, which mainly consisted of the announcers leering and kissing her (figurative) butt." But generally enjoyable.

The definition of "indisputable"

2010-04-14T10:44:00.000-04:00

Tuesday night, April 13, 2010

To: the Atlanta Cracker

From: the Nachoman

Thanks for obtaining prizes for last weekend's physics fights. I especially liked the hanging tomato grower! Oh, and the umpires used a 5 minute replay review to reverse a Jay Bruce home run, even though the Reds broadcasters thought the ball was fair from their replay. (I was watching on extra-low def internet video, so I couldn't tell.) Now the game is tied at 8 in the 8th, 'cause a reliever walked a guy with a three-run lead and then gave up a tying homer. Guh.

To: the Nachoman

From: the Atlanta Cracker

Nice. What's the definition of "indisputable" again? Or is that word not in the MLB replay policy?

To: the Atlanta Cracker

From: the Nachoman

No idea. The MLB replay policy appears to be identical to that of the NFL, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball -- Stop the game and take 5-10 minutes to agonize over an issue that could be resolved in 30 seconds if the organization were willing to say "Can't tell, let's move on."

P.S. The Reds game went to extras, then the Reds took advantage of the Marlins reliever who gave up two walks, and would have had more than two runs but for an amazing catch on a Cabrera drive. F. Cordero actually looked good getting the save.

Rays Haze

2010-04-07T08:54:00.000-04:00

I just watched the video highlight of Carl Crawford's walkoff double to defeat Peter Angelos. Sure, it's an exciting baseball play, well-called by the play-by-play man. What ELSE do you notice?

I thought there was old-fashioned TV static on my internet video. On further reading, I found out that a haze had settled in over the Trop, St. Petersburg's indoor stadium that is second only to old Olympic stadium for charm. Why the haze?

During player introductions, the Rays used elaborate smokey special effects to heighten the excitment of opening day. (Traditionalists such as the Nachoman scoff scoffingly at such gimmickry. If a fan needs more than organ music to feel excited on opening day, than he is no fan.)

Problem is, the Trop is an indoor stadium. INDOOR! I've been annoyed at Reds games in an OUTDOOR stadium when the brief smoke effects after a home run drift into the crowd and reduce visibility for a half inning. The Tampa smoke hung around until the end of the game.

I continue to wonder at how baseball manages to survive when marketing geniuses like these are in charge. I'd rather watch Schotzie the Elephant.

NM

How far will YOU go to avoid Joe Morgan's commentary?

2010-04-05T13:31:00.000-04:00

Okay, that was exciting... I'm listening to the Yanks-Sox in Spanish via Gameday Audio. No, I don't speak a word of Spanish, but nevertheless this is far more enjoyable than Joe Morgan. The call of Granderson's home run was especially fun (possibly because Mr. Granderson is on my fantasy team). Not that I knew what the announcer said, but he said it well.

FYI, I did the same thing for World Cup 2006. I entered the room with some (American) friends to watch the US game, and an Argentinian had the Spanish broadcast on. She offered to switch, and every one of us said, emphatically, "NO!" We all preferred to hear knowledgable, experienced, and properly trained broadcasters in a different language than random ignorant American play-by-play man who's trying his best with random-veteran-of-1994 USA team who has no ability on air but got the job anyway.

That's today's rant. Back to grading ray diagrams.

Ramon Hernandez -- Don't underestimate the value of Spanish

2010-03-13T10:09:00.000-05:00

Last week I acquired the 2010 Baseball Prospectus, the tome that's home to the best writing and statistical analysis available in the preseason. I'm disappointed that the authors deliberately choose not to organize their statistics in aggregate tables -- after all, the primary purpose of such statistical season previews is to assist fantasy baseball owners with their drafts. The BP folks are banking on the fact that readers won't mind paying online for a sortable spreadsheet. Pah, I say. I feel like I bought a car, but the tires cost extra.

Anyway. On to BP's commentary on the Reds.

The Reds section includes three separate comments about the Ryan Hanigan / Ramon Hernandez combination at catcher. BP points out, quite reasonably, that Mr. Hanigan had a slightly better year than Mr. Hernandez in 2009, Mr. Hanigan is an inexpensive player relative to the $3 million that Mr. Hernandez just signed for, and Mr. Hanigan is the younger player with a higher long-term upside. BP criticizes Reds general Manager Walt Jocketty harshly for paying a premium for Mr. Hernandez; they mock Mr. Jocketty for his publicly stated rationale that Hernandez brings "veteran leadership."

In the world of baseball statistics, "leadership" and other intangibles probably don't exist, and if they do, they certainly aren't worth a million dollars.

Now, Baseball Prospectus did not contact Mr. Jocketty or the Reds to discuss the Hernandez signing. I don't know that they would have gotten a useful answer if they had attempted to obtain a comment -- baseball GMs are not known for their frank honesty when dealing with the media. But I wonder if BP overlooked and underestimated the language issue.

As I understand it, Ramon Hernandez speaks fluent Spanish, and Ryan Hanigan does not. (If I am mistaken here, I would love someone to correct me. I do not have the access to find out if I'm wrong.)

Consider the Reds starting pitching. The team hopes to make their rotation the bedrock of a team that can win several division titles. Look at the players and their native languages.

Aaron Harang, a solid veteran and one-time ace whose performance has slipped recently, is from San Diego. He almost definitely doesn't speak Spanish.

Bronson Arroyo, a "veteran league average innings eater," in BP's estimation, was born in Key West to a Cuban family. He almost definitely DOES speak at least some Spanish; chances are he's rather fluent.

Behind these two veterans are the young pitchers the Reds are counting on to lead them out of the NL Central depths:

Johnny Cueto, from the Dominican Republic. Native Spanish speaker.

Edinson Volquez, also from the DR. Native Spanish speaker. [Mr. Volquez will not be back on the roster until midseason due to injury.]

And, most importantly...

Aroldis Chapman, the Reds newest signee, straight off the Cuban national team. With the fortune the Reds have given Mr. Chapman, it is in the organization's interest to do everything possible to ensure his success.

How many times have we seen a foreign player struggle mightily in his rookie season because of the considerable cultural adjustment? Mr. Chapman in particular is going to experience possibly the biggest possible one-year swing in his social, cultural, and economic status. He's going from, essentially, Cuban peasant to American zillionaire. As far as I know. Mr. Chapman doesn't have any family or established relationships in America. He will be left to deal with the transition on his own, and with help from his teammates.

Who's going to tell Mr. Chapman the difference between a legitimate financial advisor and the unscrupulous sharks who want him to fund their Madoff-style schemes? Who's going to confront Mr. Chapman when he's made too many late night Taco Bell runs? Who is going to listen to and understand Mr. Chapman's adjustment issues?

While they might not be able to RELATE to Chapman's issues, the Spanish speakers on the roster will at least have the language skills to UNDERSTAND what Mr. Chapman is saying. Mssrs. Cueto and Volquez will have gone through something similar over the past few years -- but they are still learning the ropes of major league life themselves.

And here is the hole that Ramon Hernandez can fill. It is likely that Mr. Jocketty expects Mr. Hernandez to be as much coach as player to the predominantly young and predominantly Spanish-speaking starting pitchers. Sure, Ryan Hanigan is the better hitter with the better arm and more potential. But Hernandez might be better for his teammates.

Chapman?

2010-01-10T21:22:00.001-05:00

The Nachoman's Cubs correspondent Deep Dish writes in to ask about the Reds signing of Aroldis Chapman.

1. I trust Walt Jocketty.

2. $5 mil per year isn't really that much, as major league pitchers go.

3. I don't believe the 102 mph baloney for a second. Remember the "gyroball?"

4. I'm much more worried about Rolen's contract. I like him, but isn't he older than me?

5. I'd be a whole lot more confident if I thought the Reds had a decent pitching coach. Can we please steal Dave Duncan or Leo Mazzone? Mazzone is broadcasting, for Bob's sake, he's available!

6. Isn't Havana the best possible expansion city for MLB? Can someone please just "dissapear" whichever Castro is in charge so we can put a team there?

Hey, Deadspin, it's Karch Kiraly! AP Physics is how I knew.

2009-12-22T09:48:00.001-05:00

This December 22 Deadspin post asks readers to identify the man to the right. I knew right away it must be the best known volleyball player of the 80s and 90s, Mr. Karch Kiraly. I was right -- take a look here, or check several pages worth of Google image searches.

How did I recognize this somewhat obscure character? AP Physics.

Each June I read thousands of AP Physics exams. Last year I was a table leader for problem 5. One of the members of my group was the multitalented Eric Plett, who teaches at Junipero Serra High School in San Mateo, CA. Eric is himself a kick-butt swimmer and volleyball player. He arrived at the pool each morning at 6:30 to work out with another physics teacher from Wisconsin -- I enjoyed the daily recaps of their races*.

Anyway, I remembered Eric discussing how people think him a dead ringer for Karch Kiraly. And when I saw the picture above, I said, "What's Eric Plett doing in Deadspin?"

Now, imagine that Mr. Plett were to give his AP Physics reading invitation to Mr. Kiraly. How long, do you think, could Mr. Kiraly last before he were found out as not-a-physics-teacher? Bids start at two minutes.

*I enjoyed them all the moreso because *I* was usually still asleep at 6:30.

Yes, I swear to the Almighty Bob, this conversation happened

2009-12-06T16:24:00.000-05:00

Sunday afternoon, El Mole and I saw the Redskins miss the 23 yard field goal, leaving Drew Brees and the Saints under two minutes and 77 yards to go to tie or win the game.

I turned to El Mole. "So, how many plays will it take for Brees to score? Over or under, say, five?"

"Hmmm," replied El Mole. "I'd go with exactly five."

We noted that neither of us had any doubt whatsoever that the Saints would, in fact, score the touchdown.

When the Brees-to-Meachem 53 yard touchdown occurred on the FIFTH play of the Saints drive, there was much rejoicing in the Nachoman household.*

*Except for by Burrito Girl, who didn't care.

"I Hate Myself for Loving You?"

2009-10-25T12:39:00.001-04:00

Okay, maybe I'm just too ignorant of 80s music, but I was unaware of the 1988 Joan Jett and the Blackhearts song "I Hate Myself for Loving You," at least until my XM 80s channel just played it. I know this song as the Sunday Night Football theme, sung not by an aging Joan Jett but by some blonde in a tight black Joan Jett-style thing.

Right? Was this just brutally obvious, such that any non-physicist with normal pop-cultural literacy would have known this? And if the SNF theme IS based on a 1988 Joan Jett song, does that mean that my generation is taking over the world? Will we soon see Sting and Duran Duran replacing Paul McCartney and the Rolling Stones on ads for retirement funds and cholesterol-lowering medication?

This is what the Nachoman ponders as he waits for baseball to resume. Too bad they didn't bother to schedule an ALCS game Friday night, when the weather was lovely... now it's likely the World Series will last into January.

GCJ

Are the Yankees "desperately needed" by baseball?

2009-10-19T15:25:00.003-04:00

The NachoGrandpa writes:

"A radio talk show host, I think Colin Cowherd, said that Yankees-Angels had a TV rating of 6.5, whereas Dodgers-Phillies had a 3.5. The 3.5 is well lower than the big college football games, and the NFL gets around a 12.

He concluded that the Yankees are desperately needed by baseball to do well financially. Does this ring true to you?"

Yes, but NOT for television purposes. If national TV ratings were the only important issue, then MLB would do what I've wanted to see for years: Cut the season so that it ends on August 10th, have the playoffs and world series finish before the start of the NFL season, and make the games fit into a concise 2.5-hour bin. National TV ratings would, at minimum, quadruple.

The fact is, individual teams get substantial revenue from local broadcast rights and from attendance at the games themselves. This is NOT the NFL, where national broadcast revenue dwarfs pretty much every other source of money. Only die-hard baseball fans care substantially about the playoffs and world series if the home team isn't playing. This wasn't true 30 or even (maybe) 20 years ago... but now, NFL playoffs are national events regardless of who's in them; baseball playoffs are only truly important in the home market.

Nevertheless, which team gets the largest local broadcast revenue? The Yankees. Which team makes the most money per game throughout the season? The yankees. Which team sells the most paraphernalia? Yankees. Which team is guaranteed to sell out in a visitor's stadium, even if that stadium is named PNC Park? Yup, the Yankees. So strong New York baseball is definitely important to the league, but for different reasons than Colin Blowhard says.

(My second act as commissioner would be to put a team in Brooklyn named the Dodgers with the correct old insignia. I actually think that the New York market is underserved by baseball.)

The baseball analogy might be Reggie Jackson hitting a bird

2009-10-17T10:43:00.003-04:00

Okay, the NLCS last night just stunk. I watched a couple of early innings (since when can an "elite" offense not hit Vicente freakin' Padilla?), as well as about an hour of the bottom of the eighth. All you need to know about this game, and about the detritus that is modern postseason baseball, is that this hour did not represent the entirety of the half-inning.

So I'll post about soccer instead. Under the "truth is stranger than fiction" tag, as well as "you see something new and crazy all the time":

Liverpool playing at Sunderland, first few minutes... Sunderland takes a shot from about 15 yards out, straight in front of the goal but with a few defenders around. It's a kinda weak shot, headed straight for the keeper for an easy save. BUT WAIT! A balloon was on the pitch. "A rogue balloon, dispatched by the spectators," was sitting on the ground near the Liverpool goal. This shot ricocheted off of the balloon, changing its path just enough to get past the goalkeeper.

Now, I don't know enough about soccer rules to know what is supposed to happen here, but I doubt this situation is covered in your normal official's clinic. Apparently the goal stands -- that certainly makes the most sense, even though Liverpool could be justifiably angry at the unfortunate and unlucky situation.

The commentator was excoriating the Liverpool defense, saying that they "should have stomped on the balloon so that it could not impact play." Huh? You really want your fullbacks trying to catch a slippery balloon rather than mark their men? I mean, I would have a word for the Sunderland event management, who allowed the balloon to get on the pitch to begin with. (To take the argument ab absurdio, an unscrupulous team could deliberately release balloons when their offense makes a run on goal.)

Could the referee have stopped the Sunderland attack if he had noticed the balloon? Should he have? (I'm guessing not.) Have you ever seen something like this before?

Another reason to love Chris Collinsworth

2009-09-14T08:04:00.001-04:00

Sunday night, Bears at Packers. Illegal contact is called by the referee. NBC’s cameras replay the source of the action, which was a near-interception by a Green Bay cornerback.

Al Michaels asks, with a bit of indigence, “Where was the illegal contact?”

Probable John Madden (or pretty much any other “analyst,” especially one who played offense) response: “I don’t know, Al, *I* certainly don’t see any illegal contact. I can’t imagine what the officials were thinking.”

Chris Collinsworth response: “It was downfield.”

Mr. Collinsworth, seemingly alone among announcing booth denizens, knows that illegal contact is ANY contact that occurs more than 5 yards downfield before the ball is thrown, even away from the eventual focal point of the play. I appreciated how Collinsworth’s quick, concise response refocused the broadcast on the game rather than on the purported incompetence of the officials.

A note about Troy Palamalu's hair

2009-09-11T16:51:00.004-04:00

A note from last night's NFL opener, Titans-Steelers:

On the crazy-sick Polamalu interception, the Tennessee receiver’s leg touched Polamalu’s hair. I read a couple of years ago that the hair is considered part of the uniform for the purposes of “touching.” Therefore, Polamalu should have been ruled down after the interception, and his ~10 yard return should have been disallowed. I’m surprised Jeff Fischer didn’t challenge. I’m also surprised that the most astute commentators on television, Michaels and Collinsworth, didn’t notice.

P.S. Isn’t it great to have Collinsworth in place of Madden? I’m enjoying the announcers, which is a highly unusual state for the Nachoman.

P.P.S. I sighed to myself as I headed to bed last night, "Be prepared for the onslaught of lazy sportswriter columns decrying the NFL overtime system." Sure enough, SI.com had one at 11:39 a.m. Come on, folks, just deal with it. If you don't want to lose in overtime because the other team won the coin toss, you have two options: (1) win the dang game in regulation, or (2) make your defense and special teams stop the opponent. If you can't do either of those things, TS.

Two important notes about the August 28 Dodgers-Reds game

2009-08-28T22:22:00.001-04:00

(1) No, it’s NOT a save situation when the pitcher comes in in the 9th with one out, no one on, and a 3 run lead. Sorry, FSN Cincinnati.

(2) The game should have been over a batter early! With two outs in the 9th, and the bases loaded, Andre Either swung at a pitch that hit his foot for strike 3. Plate umpire Chuck Meriwether let the wild pitch go… the ball went to the backstop , a run scored, and the inning continued.

Well, if it WERE a wild pitch, then that’s correct – the batter can run to first even though first was occupied because there were two outs. However, a pitch that hits the batter is always dead, even if swung at. The correct call is strike 3, ball dead, game over.

Good thing Crappy Cordero, who made a three-run lead with two outs to go interesting, got Manny to take strike 3.

It's almost college baseball season, and replay bites the Gnats in the thorax

2009-05-29T16:12:00.007-04:00

We're less than two months into the season, and one team has been, in the Nachoman's eyes at least, eliminated from playoff contention. How's that, you say? Take a look at the Baseball Prospectus playoff odds . A computer "plays" each remaining game in the season and computes the final standings. Then the computer does the same thing for another pretend season. Then again and again, a total of a million times. Of those million pretend seasons, the Nationals have made the playoffs just 53,000 times, or 0.5 % of the time.

I call that "effectively eliminated." Why? Baseball in something resembling its current form has been around for just over 100 years. The probabilities computed by BP suggest that the Nationals have well less than one chance in 100 of making the playoffs. My conclusion: the Gnats ain't making the playoffs without a Moses-level miracle.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Dodgers are listed at a 96% chance of making the playoffs, best in the league. What's most surprising: the early-season darling Pirates still have a 9% chance of making it; and both the Royals and the Reds are still in the 20-30% range. Moses level miracle, indeed.

Do you spit in the gruel of your most bitter rival if you can?
The ACC baseball tournament has an unusual structure. The eight qualifying teams are split into two pools. Each pool plays one game against each team in the pool; the winners of each pool face off in a championship game.

With four teams in a pool and only three games to play, it’s highly likely that two teams tie for the top spot in the pool. The tiebreaking procedures are reasonable: If two teams tie, then the head-to-head victor advances. If three teams tie, then the best regular season conference record among the teams gets to the title game.

On Saturday afternoon, the last day of pool play produced a strange situation. At 4:00, Clemson took on North Carolina. Clemson was out of it, at 0-2. North Carolina, 1-1, had to win in order to have any chance of advancing. At 8:00, Duke at 1-1 was to play pool leader Virginia, 2-0. A UVA win obviously put them in the title game. But if Duke were to win on Saturday night, then craziness would ensue.

Carolina had the best regular season record. So, if they, Duke, and UVA all tied at 2-1, Carolina would advance. Look at the timing of the games: the Tar Heels played first. If they won, then Duke would have no prayer of advancing, but must beat UVA for Carolina to advance.

Now, one might expect that a team tries to win in all circumstances. And I do not believe that the Blue Devils would ever purposely lose. But remember the bitter blood feud that exists between UNC and Duke. Knowing that a loss hands UNC the championship, and that a win would be meaningless, might they subconsciously give less than their best effort?

(It turned out to be a mute point, as UNC lost in extra innings in the 4:00 game. Virginia beat Duke to advance to the ACC championship game.)

Why was there a 30 minute no-rain delay in Florida on Sunday?
At the scheduled start time of 1:10 PM, the tarp at Wayne Huizenga’s “It Was Good Enough For Baseball When We Lobbied For An Expansion Team” Stadium still sat on the field. I didn’t expect the game to start on time, because the weather forecast on Yahoo indicated a tornado warning in north-central Dade County, which is the approximate location of the stadium. Nevertheless, the forecast was clear for the rest of the day, and no rain had fallen in the stadium all day. Finally, at about 1:15, the grounds crew began to pull the tarp off the field; the game started at 1:40 or so.

So, why did the game start late if no rain ever fell? The turf at IWGEFBWWLFANET stadium drains extraordinarily well. Knowing that clearing skies were approaching, the tarp could have been left off for warm-ups pending the actual arrival of actual rain.

Problem was, the Marlins bullpen was completely burned out from long outings on the previous couple of days. They couldn’t afford the possibility of their pitcher having to come out of the game due to rain in the second inning. Since the home team, not the umpires, determines whether conditions are suitable to start the game, the Marlins chose to avoid even the remote chance of their starter being forced out of the game early.

And the best way to avoid walks is to throw strikes
I was on dorm duty on Tuesday, during which I watched the Reds-Astros game. Nonetheless, I still had responsibilities as the duty master for the evening. As I walked around the dorm around lunchtime, I found two rooms that smelled really bad. To the residents’ credit, they tried to do something about the odor: they opened their doors and turned on several fans. One person even put some kind of perfume near the fan. While I appreciated the effort to remove the smell, I had to turn off the fans, as fans in unoccupied rooms are considered a fire hazard.

Both rooms had full garbage cans, even after the fans had been on much of the day.

The residents looked at me with interest when I noted that the best way to avoid a smelly room is to keep the trash emptied. This was new, world-changing information.

Oswalt’s meltdown
On Tuesday, for only the7th time in his career, Roy Oswalt walked a batter with the bases loaded. And for only the second time in history, Mr. Oswalt took the loss against the Cincinnati Reds.

Every hit a pitcher ever gave up was the result of a pitch “out over the plate.”[1]

Jeff Brantley: “That’s [Felipe] Paulino’s problem, elevating the baseball.”

Mr. Paulino had just given up a home run to Jay Bruce. The first replay showed the catcher presenting a target above the waist. So Mr. Brantley did a MacCarver:

“Yes, his catcher wanted the ball elevated in this case, but look where that pitch was.” [Brantley drew a line on telestrator.] “Here’s where the catcher wants the ball, WAY up there, and here’s where the pitch is.”

The replay ran... The pitch hit the catcher’s glove right on top of the line drawn by Mr. Brantley, meaning that the pitch essentially hit the target. But Brantley continued with his Bush Administration science: “See he elevated the ball, but not enough. The ball ended up out over the plate.”

Later, on a swinging bunt, Willie Taveras raced toward first base. The throw from the catcher was well wide of first base, allowing Mr. Taveras to reach third base. The Astros protested that Taveras had run out of the three-foot running lane, and thus should be called out for interference.[2]The 2003 Iraqi Foreign Minister made an appearance in the guise of Jeff Brantley, who said “[Taveras is running] on the line.” No he wasn’t. Replay clearly showed Taveras’ feet never touched the white baseline.

Nevertheless
See, for some stupid reason I like Brantley. He’s not afraid to say what he thinks, even when he’s wrong. Sometimes he’s even right. For example, he talked about Jay Bruce. “When he came into the big leagues, he was surrounded by guys who were only concerned with hitting the ball out of the ballpark. Now those two guys are gone. He’s adjusting his approach, because now he’s surrounded by guys who know there’s more to offensive baseball than crushing home runs.”

Now, one could argue with Mr. Brantley about Bruce’s approach to offensive baseball, but it’s about time that someone took Mssrs. Dunn and Griffey to task publicly for the way they played the game.

Then, he suggested that “a team learns a lot about itself through its mistakes. This ballclub got swept in San Diego, and it was an utter embarrassment. Sometimes that’s the best way to come together as a team, to be utterly embarrassed.” Right on! On one hand, the repeated references to teamwork and inter-team relationships has an almost Joe Morgan-like feel; but attitude has more of an effect on baseball teams than many Sabermatricians like to admit, and Mr. Brantley’s insights are occasionally useful.

Brantley kind of reminds me of Joe Nuxhall (RIP), who would have flunked out of broadcast school. No one was a better foil for Marty Brennaman, though. Nuxhall’s folksy delivery, his knowledge of and place in Reds history, and his storytelling made up for his deficiencies in his fundamentals, at least for Reds fans. I can say the some of the same things about “Cowboy” Jeff Brantley.

Replay Fiasco, only three months into the replay system
On Wednesday night in New York, Met Daniel Murphy hit a long fly ball to right field. Adam Dunn, who patrols right field as Frank Drebin patrols Los Angeles, gave up on what he thought to be a sure home run. But the ball landed in the field of play, hitting the top of the fence on one bounce. Mr. Dunn recovered from his surprise, threw back to the infield, and managed to nail a baserunner at home plate.

BUT WAIT! The Mets asked for a replay review, the fourth review in a Mets game in five days. Three umpires headed for the replay room. Six excruciating minutes later, the umpires reversed themselves and awarded Mr. Murphy a tiebreaking and eventually game deciding home run.

On Wednesday night, the Atlanta Cracker wrote to me asking my thoughts.

Sayeth the Nachoman (who didn’t see the play, but watched it on a small-screen highlight):
I didn't at first realize this was a replay review. I thought the umpires just got together to sort it out. If a non-calling umpire had a better angle, then the crew generally would defer to him. Furthermore, if the calling umpire wasn’t totally sure, better to let play go and THEN ask for help than to call a mistaken home run.

Sayeth the Atlanta Cracker:
Yes, it was a replay review. But I'm more interested in what you think of the physics of it. Look at it again and tell me if you think it's physically possible for that ball to hit the Subway sign, then bounce on the field and bounce up high against the wall. I say no, and I think that should have been something the umpires considered. But I bet they just looked at the video around the sign itself and decided that they thought it hit the sign.

Nachoman:
Yes, it's physically possible. I see it now ('cause I got it in high def). The "Pepsi Porch," as I learned when I first watched a game from Ponzi Scheme Field, hangs out OVER the playing surface. It's like old tiger stadium. You hit the "Pepsi Porch," it's a home run.

AC:
I don't think you're understanding my objection. The two MASN announcers debated this, and I actually think one of them had a fairly good idea of the physics involved. The other one seemed clueless.

I realize the porch hangs out over the field. The objection is that a ball that hits the porch would at best (if the collision is fairly inelastic) fall straight down or, more likely (if the collision is more elastic) bounce back towards the infield. It would not fall to the ground and then bounce towards the wall. Look at it again. The trajectory of the hit is very high, which is why I think the umpires guessed it could have hit the Subway sign and fallen down without bouncing back towards the infield much. Fine. But look at how it bounces off the field and then high up off the wall. The only way it could have bounced like that is either by not hitting the "Pepsi Porch" at all or by just barely skimming the bottom edge of it---and of course there's no way to tell from the video if the ball just barely skims the bottom edge.

NM:
Yes, I see... I had the SNY announcers. But I think you kind of agree with my point: if the Porch were not hanging over the field, then the trajectory you indicate would be impossible. But with the porch in front of the fence, then the ball can maintain some momentum toward the wall after the collision, and still bounce further toward the wall. I am thinking precisely of a collision that you would describe as "skimming" the bottom part of the sign.

AC:
OK, but only with the "skimming" collision, right? Is there any way the ball could smack the face of the sign, come down, and then because of some sort of spin from the collision bounce like that towards the wall? I can't imagine it happening, but I could be wrong.

So basically, what the umpires were saying is that the video review shows indisputably that the ball barely skimmed the sign. What a crock.

NM:
You're right, the video is inconclusive from every angle I saw. And the umpires should take physics into account, of course.

By the way, the plate umpire was Sam Holbrook, one of the Wendelstedt School instructors. He has a masters degree... in sports administration. And he didn't look at the replay.

AC:
Interesting. Why would one umpire sit out the replay session? I assume that's standard procedure, not just that he didn't feel like going over to look.

NM:
I think the idea is to keep one umpire in case something untoward happens... like a fight, or someone stealing bases (Lou Pinella style, not Ricky Henderson style).

AC:
Two other points:

#1: The MASN announcers were all over the first-base umpire, to the point that they were suggesting he look into a new line of work. It was really harsh and completely unwarranted, as far as I could see. Apparently they had some complaints about a call from a previous night, but last night it came down to stuff like any time a close call didn't go Washington's way, who was responsible? That umpire, of course!

#2: The MASN sideline reporter actually went up to the "Pepsi Porch" to talk to the Mets fans there about the disputed HR, and they were in agreement that the Mets got a gift there---none of them thought the ball hit the sign.

NM:
You’ve hit on the Nachoman’s entire objection to instant replay, in all sports, not just baseball. Replay exists to rectify obvious errors of judgment. If a call cannot be reversed using one quick look from each camera angle, then the “error or judgment” was in no way “obvious,” nor was it necessarily an “error.” If anyone can say, with even a shred of credibility, “I looked at the replay, and I still wasn’t sure whether the official was right or wrong,” then the call on the field has to stand. Unfortunately, that’s not how replay has actually worked in practice in college basketball, college and pro football, and now baseball. All replay has done in these sports is prolong the already interminable games, interrupt their flow, and cause more arguments than they’ve settled.

Next week:
Amid widespread calls for improving the quality of the Nachoman’s officiating, the Woodberry Athletic Department spends 2/3 of their remaining budget installing an instant replay system for intramural flag football.

[1] The following are approximate quotations written down immediately after I heard them. I don’t claim word-for-word accuracy, but the gist is correct.
[2] The umpires correctly ruled no interference. Since the throw was nowhere near Mr. Taveras, then he could not have hindered the fielder taking the throw at first base. If he doesn’t interfere with a throw to first, a runner can go to first on any path he wants.

Nats-Pirates, Ford the Prefect, and a tenuous defense of Kerry Wood

2009-05-23T15:26:00.010-04:00

We’ll begin not with the Dodgers or the Yankees, but with the other end of major league baseball.

I was a bit sad that I had to miss the Woodberry Forest varsity baseball banquet on Tuesday night. I had already been scheduled to work the Pirates-Nationals game for STATS. I bemoaned the quality of my assigned game to El Molé, but he took an optimistic attitude: “At least it will be an even match,” he said.

And it was – the Gnats came back to tie the game in the 9th, but the Pirates won in the 10th.

Adam Dunn made a play!
In the first inning Tuesday, Nate McLouth crushed a ball down the first base line, the wind held it up, and it looked like a sure double. But, here came Adam Dunn, reaching up and then back behind him, making the catch – An awkward catch, to be sure, but a catch. When Mr. Dunn was with the Reds, I used to cringe on every ball hit his way. But Tuesday, Dunn made a total of three above-average-difficulty plays in right field. Even a blind nut finds a squirrel once in a while. Or something like that.

Color me surprised
I continue to enjoy listening to Rob Dibble on Nats broadcasts, and not just because he tells stories about the 1990 Reds. On Tuesday, Pirates leadoff hitter Nyjer Morgan started the game with a double off of rookie Shairon Martis. Mr. Morgan’s slugging percentage of .370 should not scare anyone. So, as Mr. Dibble pointed out, why throw a changeup to him? That just sped up Morgan’s bat, and resulted in a hard liner.

Thursday night marked Brave pitcher Kris Medlen’s first start. This gentleman had been known in the minor leagues for his command, his ability to pitch to contact successfully. In spots, Mr. Medlen showed just why scouts were so high on him. Problem was, in the fourth inning, Medlen suddenly lost all semblance of control. He gave up a leadoff hit, walked the bases loaded, and then hit a batter. (As if things could be any worse, the batter he hit was the opposing pitcher.) Bobby Cox slapped Mr. Medlen on the butt and wished him good evening.

“So, what is Kris Medlen’s personal quirk,” you ask, and I’m glad you did. He wore the bill of his hat flat, not rounded, so that one could (in principle) balance a cup of coffee on it. Interestingly, SportSouth showed Medlen’s parents in the stands during the game. While mom looked normal, Dad wore his cap just like his son’s: the bill was parallel with the earth.

I thought I was done with Adam
Now that he’s no longer with the Reds, I thought I was through watching Adam Dunn’s unwillingness to cut down his swing in an RBI situation… but no. With the game tied, runner on second base, and one out in the ninth, Dunn had two chances to hit 3-2 pitches. All he needed was a base hit to win the game – “just make contact, Adam, just make contact!” said I. I might as well have been vicariously shouting for Travis Henry to use birth control.

Yes, I have heard all the arguments that despite all the strikeouts, Adam Dunn is a valuable hitter. I agree, generally. Strikeouts usually hurt less than people think, if the alternative is frequently a home run or a double. Problem is, good players adjust their approach to the game situation. Either Mr. Dunn is incapable of shortening his stroke for the purpose of making contact – in which case he isn’t nearly as good as he thinks he is – or, he’s too stubborn. Either way, and coupled with his general defensive ineptitude, I don’t want Adam Dunn on any major league team that I root for.

Awesome!
As of Tuesday, the Nats had scored at least 5 runs in 10 straight games.

But they still stink
The Gnats are 1-9 in those games.

The hurtin’ Mets
Injuries forced three starters out of the Mets lineup for Monday’s game in Los Angeles. The Mets started Ramon Martinez instead of Jose Reyes at short; Angel Pagan instead of Gary Sheffield or Daniel Murphy in left; Fernando Tatis at first instead of Carlos Delgado.

Mr. Tatis went 0-5. Mr. Martinez made two errors at short and went 0-5 at the plate. Mr. Pagan had a good night offensively, going 4-6, but contributed to a critical misplay in the bottom of the 11th – he failed to yield to his centerfielder, who (according to Carlos Beltran’s postgame quotes) called for the ball six times.

As if that weren’t enough, Jeremy Reed entered the game as a pinch hitter, and took over for Mr. Tatis at first base. In the bottom of the 11th, after the Pagan misplay that was scored as a Beltran error, the Mets had their chance to get out of the inning. With one out and the bases loaded, a grounder to Reed could have been an easy double play ball, or at least a fielder’s choice at home. But Mr. Reed threw wide to home… fifth Mets error on the night, and ballgame.

As if THAT weren’t enough, check out the TOP of the 11th inning. Ryan Church singled with two outs, then came around to score on a Pagan triple. BUT WAIT! Church failed to touch third base. Take a look at this excellent screen shot of third base umpire Mike DiMuro watching Mr. Church round third. A Dodger appeal nullified the run and ended the inning. AARRGH, said Mets fans. Their starters can’t come back soon enough.

The continuing saga
The Mets picked up right where they left off on Tuesday – left fielder Daniel Murphy got picked off to end the top of the first, then dropped a fly ball to allow a leadoff baserunner in the bottom of the first. Final score: 5-3 Dodgers.

Epilogue
Murphy was moved to first base for Wednesday’s game.

I will not discuss the sausage race this week
After the 4th inning of all home games, the Nationals stage a Presidents Race, which is eerily reminiscent of the Milwaukee Sausage Race: four presidents with enormous foam heads run around the stadium. On Tuesday night, the race was a relay involving both Presidents and Pirogies.[1] A pirogue tripped over a hurdle, allowing a determined George Washington to pass the pirogue and cruise to victory.

Creepy clickable advertisements

I’m becoming increasingly annoyed at the online clickable ads tailored to a specific location. Somehow, no doubt using the kind of “cookie” you can’t eat, various websites know that I live in Woodberry Forest, Virginia. And the ads that I see, in principle, can be adjusted based on where I live.

Problem is, these ads are woefully uncreative, dishonest, and downright creepy. It’s one thing to put up an ad for a blues club on Rush Street for someone in a Chicagoland zip code, or to keep Carl’s Junior ads confined to the west coast. It’s simply stupid to create an ad with a fill-in-the-blank for a city: “Our internet-based or nationally known company has special deals for people in Kokomo, Indiana this week!”

This latter approach is what I see most of the time. Thing is, Woodberry Forest is a “town” consisting of about 40 families. Though we’re technically a town with our own zip code, really we’re a boys’ boarding school, where the faculty live on campus with our families. I know every person who lives on campus; I see most of them every day, even sometimes in the summer. Everyone who lives here is either a faculty member, a faculty spouse, or a faculty child.

So, I see, on mainstream websites such as yahoo.com and usatoday.com:

“Woodberry Forest mom lost jiggly fat. See how a mom dropped 43 pounds of fat and kept it off.” – no, I and my wife would have noticed if there were (a) a Woodberry Forest mom who lost 43 pounds, or (b) a Woodberry Forest mom who even had 43 extra pounds to lose.

“Woodberry Forest Man makes $10,000 a month. ‘I got fired! I now earn more than my old boss!’” No, if you got fired from Woodberry, you don’t live here anymore. And I would now be asking this person for money if he or she existed.

“Meet Woodberry Forest singles!” By the picture of the sultry and scantily clad young lady included with this ad, it is referring to “singles” of the female variety.[2] Problem is, there are no female singles of marriageable age who would list their hometown as Woodberry Forest, Virginia. There are three high school girls in our “town,” as well as a gaggle of little girls. The (six-year-old) Nachoboy and I have already met each of these girls, so we have no need for an introduction service.

Help prevent the scourge of bootleg prayer crosses
An ad during Spongebob Squarepants promoted the “prayer cross,” a spiritual as well as a jewelry accessory. When held to the light, the words of the Lord’s Prayer “almost miraculously” appear. Each prayer cross comes with a money back guarantee, presumably if the appearance of the prayer is not quite miraculous.

Each also comes with a “certificate of authenticity.” What, is it signed by God himself?

BOUX to MASN
In between innings, their perky sideline reporter conducted an interview with Adam Dunn’s mom. Let me repeat #44 of Nachoman’s 99 Baseball Theses[3]: during a game, it is inappropriate EVER to interview ANY relative of a player who sits in the stands. We tuned in to watch a game, not the Oprah Winfrey show. (You want to talk to Mrs. Dunn in the pregame or postgame, okay, fine with me, but not during the game.)

Double BOUX to SportSouth
…whose perky sideline reporter conducted an in-game interview with Kris Medlen’s parents. Double BOUX for extending the interview while game action was going on! Aargh!

Good catch by plate umpire Bob Davidson
In the 3rd inning on Thursday, Yunel Escobar grounded out. The bat flipped out of Mr. Escobar’s hands, and landed in Bob Davidson’s lap. Mr. Davidson juggled the crazily spinning bat, and finally held on while he sported a bemused look on his face. Replays showed Mr. Davidson angrily gesturing at Mr. Escobar upon returning the bat. Braves announcers noted that this was not the first time umpires or opponents have gotten angry about Escobar’s bad bat-dropping habits.

Just pencil in the 4-3 and be done with it
Aaron Cook, the Rockies sinkerballer, pitched against the Braves on Thursday night. He faced 32 batters, of whom 23 hit the ball on the ground. Of these grounders, 3 were hits, 20 were outs. Second baseman Clint Barmes had 10 assists.

The Braves broadcasters mentioned a deal an old timey pitching coach used to make with his pitchers: get 18 ground ball outs, and he’d buy the pitcher a suit. Nowadays pitchers can generally afford their own formalwear, but I still suggest that someone in Rockies management owes Mr. Cook a dashing outfit in recognition of Thursday’s outing.

I will check, Mr. Meek, whether you bring up your “holds” at your next contract negotiations.
Evan Meek of the Pirates entered Tuesday’s gamein the 7th with a one run lead. Right off the bat he went 3-0 to Christian Guzman, the Gnats leadoff hitter. Guzman ended up walking. A double play ball followed – phew. The next two batters walked. Mr. Meek barely escaped by inducing a deep fly out.

But he gets a “hold,” the most useless statistic in baseball, because he didn’t give up the lead. It’s not like he didn’t make every attempt to let the Gnats tie the game. Therefore, Mr. Meek, you earn the Nachoman’s Stinky Cheese award. Next time you plan on walking three batters in an inning, do it when I’m not watching.

I want to see clean innings from a closer
Kerry Wood blew a game for Cleveland on Tuesday. He entered in the 9th with a three run lead, but then he allowed the Royals two homers, a walk, a triple, and a game winning sac fly. He stinks, right?

Well, on that night, certainly. And it’s quite possible that Mr. Wood is truly washed up, no good, or whatever. But let’s look deeper at his 13 appearances as of Wednesday. Six of those thirteen appearances have been completely “clean,” meaning no hits or walks allowed. Granted, that’s a crude statistic – one of Mr. Wood’s appearances was for just one batter. I propose that a “closer,” whose job it is to get just a few critical outs in tight games, should more often than not get the opposition out 1-2-3. Despite Mr. Wood’s self-destruction on Tuesday and despite his high ERA, the number of clean innings he’s thrown stacks up against some other, similarly-used relievers. I tested my proposition by looking at some other teams’ closers.

Brad Lidge, PHI: 3 of 19 clean appearances
Francisco Cordero, CIN: 4 of 16 clean
Mariano Rivera, NYY: 3 of 16 clean
Kevin Gregg, CHC: 4 of 19 clean
Jonathan Broxton, LA: 10 of 18 clean
Francisco Rodriguez, 7 of 19 clean
Heath Bell, NL saves leader: 7 of 16 clean

This is just a sampling, but I submit that so far this year, Mr. Broxton has clearly outperformed Mssrs. Cordero and Rivera and Gregg and Lidge, and Mr. Wood’s performance hasn’t been that far outside the norm. Sure, I haven’t looked up exactly what happened in those games in which Mr. Broxton gave up hits or walks – perhaps Mr. Cordero or Mr. Wood did a much better job stranding those baserunners. I’m just saying that Mr. Broxton usually doesn’t even have to worry about baserunners. He shuts the opponents down for (usually) one inning, which is exactly what a closer is supposed to do.

But should she even want her tooth back?
Deadspin reports about the woman who got stuck in a Citi Field Toilet. She dropped her gold tooth in the commode, reached in to retrieve it, and got stuck. Plumbers had to be called to disengage the poor lady. The question is, would you put an item in your mouth after it had spent time in a stadium potty?

I’m reminded of Weird Al Yankovic’s famous song lyric: “I’d rather clean all the toilets / in Grand Central Station with my tongue / than spend one more minute with you.”

Barry Zito has first successful outings since the Clinton Administration
Mr. Zito started the year with two outings that must be described as complete crap. But since then, three of his six starts have been Nachoman Quality Starts, with only one subpar game thrown in. On Tuesday night, he went 8 innings, giving up just two runs, but still took the loss.

Is he worth the $200 million or so that he signed for a couple of years ago? No. Has he been solid this year? Well, since Aprill 22, he’s pitched well. Credit should be given where credit is due, even if it does seem that Mr. Zito is robbing the Giants blind by underperforming his contract. Remember, it takes two to dupe: one unscrupulous agent to dupe, and one credulous GM to be duped. Don’t blame Mr. Zito for accepting a dumptruck full of money.

Sporcle
Thanks to my physics teaching colleague Jacob Sargent, I discovered a wonderful time waster the other day: sporcle.com. This site provides “quizzes” in electronic format suitable for communal play. For example, I had some time left with my seniors in the last class on the last day of school. Most had finished their assignment. What did I do? I brought up the sporcle quiz in which we were given 16 minutes to name the artist responsible for each of the top 100 songs of the 1980s. With everyone shouting out ideas, we got 70% of the answers right. (They then demanded the 1990s game, and several students stayed late to finish.)

The site is captivating, especially if you’re wasting time in a group setting. Try pressing “random game” to see what’s available. On dorm duty Wednesday night I checked out a few random games, and found: “Can you name the players listed in the Mitchell Report?”

Thing is, I had all kinds of trouble. I only got 9 out of 86!

Perhaps most interesting about the quiz is the results page. More than 12,000 people have taken the quiz. So, which player named in the Mitchell Report do you think was guessed successfully most often? Think about it…

Answer: Roger Clemens, guessed correctly by nearly 80% of the quiz-takers. Barry Bonds was guessed second most often, and he only got 70% of the popular vote. How can you not immediately connect “Barry Bonds” and “Mitchell Report?”

Slip of the tongue, but for the first time all year
At the boarding school where I work, each hall is assigned a 12th grader to serve as prefect. The prefect is responsible for maintaining order and cleanliness.[4] The prefect on the bottom floor of the dorm I work on is named Ford Schwing.

You may recall the Hitchiker’s Guide trilogy[5] by Douglas Adams. This series was a cult classic from back when I was in elementary school. A major character was Beteljuician Ford Prefect. For the first time all year, tonight I slipped up by asking a student if he had seen “Ford Prefect” rather than “Ford Schwing” or “the downstairs prefect.” I’m surprised I made it the whole year without that mistake.

Next week
There SHOULD be a column, assuming I survive this afternoon. The six-year-old of “real burp or fake burp?” The good news is, when he noted that one of his burps was both real and fake, he listened attentively to a discussion of quantum superposition states.

[1] What do presidents have to do with pirogues? No, sorry, no joke here, I’m honestly asking. I understand the Milwaukee-sausage correlation, and the Washington-president correlation, but a race involving Thomas Jefferson and a potato-filled noodle just doesn’t have a rationale, except perhaps illicit substances in the executive suite.
[2] Though chemistry professor Jason Getz notes that such sultry young ladies generally don’t have any need to go on line to meet available men.
[3] Intended to be nailed to Allan H. “Bud” Selig’s office door, the Nachoman’s Theses are not nearly as weighty, nor as historically significant, as Martin Luther’s.
[4] Or at least a facsimile thereof
[5] Consisting of five books

Full post coming, but probably tomorrow

2009-05-22T16:19:00.003-04:00

I will not, in fact, discuss the sausage race, but I will mention a similarly surreal baseball event.

Playground baseball and bad science at the gentlemen's club

2009-05-15T09:14:00.005-04:00

It’s still early in the season, but some things are sorting themselves out. The Pirates, now in their standard lowest-potential-energy state at the bottom of the NL Central, are not as awesome as some proclaimed them to be. On the other hand, the Rangers and Reds have, so far, outperformed all expectations, while the Royals and Giants are also above .500. What does it really mean to be barely above .500 in mid-May? Couldn’t that change in just a few days?

Well, of course. Let’s look away from the won-lost record, and instead look at the probability of making the playoffs as determined by Baseball Prospectus. Their computers play the season a million times, using each team’s established level of performance to approximate who will win each game.

Who’s most likely to make the playoffs? The Dodgers, of course, who have the best record in the majors. Their four-game lead over the Giants as of Thursday translates into an 84% chance of making the playoffs. The Royals are a 50-50 shot. The Giants, though they have a slightly better record than the Royals, have only a 13% playoff probability – they play in a tougher division. The vaunted Yankees are down to 18%. No one is effectively eliminated yet;[1] the Orioles, at 14-20 in a strong division, are the worst bet at 3%.

How rapidly do these probabilities change? The case of the Mariners is instructive. They have won just once in the past week, during which their playoff probability has dropped from 24% to just 9%.

Why do we venerate the hitting streak?
Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals had his 30 game hitting streak snapped this week. I ask, why do we care?

Not that I’m downplaying Mr. Zimmerman’s ability. He is a proud member of the Electric Marshmallows, the Nachoman’s fantasy team, so I am acutely aware of his ability to get on base consistently. Such ability would be far more interesting if the Gnats pitchers had any ability to keep opponents OFF base, but that’s an irrelevant tangent.

My point is that I’ve always suspected the “hitting steak” to be a concept invented for the sole purpose of venerating Joe DiMaggio. Over a long season, batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, and other stats can allow a reasonable comparison between players. Over a single night of baseball, Willy Taveras can outperform Albert Pujols. Whether a hitter maintains a long hitting streak is far more a manifestation of luck than of differentiated skill – everyone who has ever hit for a long streak is a good hitter, but I dispute the conceit that DiMaggio is better than Rose by a score of 56-44.

A simple, obvious rule change that would net the Nachoman major dough
I took last week off because I’ve been traveling for two straight weekends. First I was in Oak Ridge for the US Association of Young Physicist Tournaments board meeting, where we made plans for our February 6, 2010 physics debate tournament. Then I drove to Richmond, VA to run an all-day Saturday prep session for students about to take the AP physics exam.

That session was paid for by a Virginia nonprofit group who has obtained a multi-million dollar federal grant for the improvement of AP science teaching. I can’t object to the purpose behind that grant; millions for AP science teaching is certainly better than spending federal money researching the connection between ovulation and strippers’ tips. Nevertheless, I have an easier way to ensure quality AP science teaching: make the teachers ace the AP exam.

Currently, any schmo who earns science teaching certification can teach AP physics in a public school, no matter how much physics that person knows, no matter how good that person is at teaching, and no matter how much effort that person puts into his or her course. The major problem with evaluating teachers is that teaching talent and effort are nebulous, subjective qualities.[2]

Physics knowledge, though, is not particularly subjective. Although I agree that too many teachers who know physics well have zero ability to help others learn the subject, I also submit that it is impossible to teach a subject in which one has insufficient fundamental knowledge – no matter how good the teacher. Since it’s next to impossible to fairly evaluate teaching ability and effort, why not test a teacher’s physics knowledge?

In fact, we have an excellent, nationally normed, standardized exam which tests physics knowledge: the AP exam itself. I suggest that public schools eliminate the arcane and worthless teaching certification rules, and instead allow anyone with a college degree to attempt to teach AP physics, if that person can get a top score of “5” on the exam. (And if that person fails to get a 5 on the exam, then that person cannot teach the course; I don’t like my tax money paying people in jobs for which they are not qualified.)

Now, I’m sure the local NEA union chief has already started writing a nasty response to the Nachoman reminding me that, even were all physics teachers to pass the AP exam, many would still stink as teachers, and would thus be unqualified for the money they earn. I can’t argue with that point. So, tell me again, why is it a bad idea to root out the one mode of incompetence which can, without question, be rooted out?

Finally, you might ask why such a simple rule change could net the Nachoman some dough. You see, the number of actually qualified AP physics teachers is relatively small. If a school must hire from a limited pool of teachers, then they will be forced to pay higher wages – that’s just supply and demand. Instead of offering workshops and seminars and programs with multi-million dollar federal grants, why not just use that money to pay truly qualified teachers? That’s a lot simpler, and would net the country substantially better results.

Not ALL umpires look like this
If you watch mlb.tv, you may have seen advertisements for the week-long mlb umpire camp in southern California. I met several veterans of this camp when I was at Umpire School – apparently the camp is sort of a point of contact to help the major leagues scout for umpire talent.

Unfortunately, the video from this camp (a screenshot is to the right) plays into the hands of those who stereotype umpire physiques. Not all of us have enormous bellies! Some of us have merely large bellies.

It’s easier to blame the umpire than your teammate's crappy performance
After Tuesday’s extra inning loss to the Mets, Braves legend Chipper Jones lashed out at umpire Greg G

ibson for costing his team the game. In the 9th inning, the Braves led by a run with one out and a man on second base. Carlos Beltran bolted for third base, McCann made a perfect throw… and replays indicate that Mr. Jones applied the tag an instant before Mr. Beltran reached the bag. Greg Gibson ruled “safe” – he missed a bang-bang call.

He missed the call, but did he truly cost the game? Possibly… Mr. Beltran scored on a sacrifice fly to tie the game, when a proper out call would have put the Braves one out from victory with the bases empty.

Nevertheless, consider how the game ended in the 10th inning. Pitcher Jeff Bennett got two quick outs, then gave up a single and a stolen base. He intentionally walked starter Alex Cora to face pinch hitter Ramon Cas

tro, whose career batting average is a paltry .238.

Mr. Bennett proceeded to go 3-0 on Castro, finishing up with a 5-pitch walk. That brought up Carlos Beltran, who took two straight balls, eventually walking to force in the winning run.

Jeff Bennett, you earn the Nachoman's Stinky Cheese award for your 10th inning. And Mr. Jones, I feel your pain about the out in the 9th, but your teammate blew the game, not the umpire.

Strippers and bad science
The previously referenced article

“Ovulatory cycle effects on tip earnings by lap dancers: economic evidence for human estrus?” earned the 2008 Ig Nobel Prize for economics. Why? Well, for one, the premise is funny. But I dispute the study’s conclusions.

Read the study’s abstract. The conclusion drawn by the authors is that ovulating strippers earn better tips than non-ovulating strippers. Their evidence: a control group of strippers on birth control pills earned, on average, relatively constant tips over the course of a month. However, the strippers on their natural reproductive cycle earned almost twice as much money when they were ovulating than when they were not.

I see two major problems with the research methods. The first is that results were self reported. Especially if the women involved knew what the researchers were investigating, they might have adjusted their reporting to meet the researchers, or their own, expectations. Secondly, the sample size is just 18 women over merely two months. Presumably that’s only about nine women in the control group and nine in the investigatory group. The chances are immense that random events – a performer having a bad day, a dancer in one group being significantly better than the others, A-Rod showing up at the club – could have significantly skewed the results.

To check the validity of this study, I suspect I can obtain a large contingent of volunteers from my E period class who would love to redo this study properly, with or without a federal grant. To address my concerns about the methodology, they propose the use of video analysis rather than self reporting.

And there are people who say science isn’t applicable in "real life."

A TV broadcast gimmick that’s actually interesting and useful
No, it’s nothing so revolutionary as the “Fox Box” or the yellow on-screen first down marker, but nothing as crappity as the infamous glowing puck. Sportschannel New York, which broadcasts Mets games, shows what they call the “pitch differential.”

The Nachoman has long advocated that an in-depth evaluation of a pitcher’s outing should be on a pitch-by-pitch basis. One should look at the accuracy and movement of the pitch rather than the actual result. If the catcher wants a slider down and away, but the pitch goes up and in, then that’s bad. But if the pitch is a nasty slider dead on the catcher’s glove, that’s good, even if that awesome slider gets knocked for bloop double.

SNY’s “pitch differential” highlights the catcher’s target with a blue circle; the actual pitch location is highlighted in yellow. Viewers can see for themselves how badly the pitcher missed his target… or, viewers can see that a pitch was actually quite good, even if the batter hits it. “Pitch differential” makes it difficult for broadcasters to engage in one of the Nachoman’s pet peeves, the color man who describes every hard hit ball as coming off of a pitch “out over the plate.”

Playground baseball: why young players don’t know the rules
I worked a middle school baseball game as the plate umpire on Tuesday. Early in the game, the visiting pitcher tried to pick off a runner at second base, who slid back to the bag safely. The alert shortstop held the tag on the runner as he got up. The 13-year-old took his hand off the base before he contacted the base with his foot; since he was still being tagged, he was out. I’ve never seen that before.

Soon thereafter, the visiting pitcher pivoted, stepped toward first base, and faked a pickoff throw there. I called a balk. Now, at the varsity and especially at the collegiate or pro level, the umpire is directed never to engage in explanation of a balk unless asked; even then, the explanation should be succinct. “He faked a throw to first from the rubber” is sufficient, because the assumption is that everyone knows the rule.[3]

With a 13-year-old on the mound, though, I felt comfortable asking the pitcher if he knew what he did wrong. With eyes as wide as saucers, he shook his head. I briefly explained that he wasn’t allowed to fake a throw to first base unless he first stepped off the back of the rubber. The boy nodded… but later in the inning he took my partner aside for more clarification. Between innings I asked the coach if he was clear on the rule; he said he was, and he took the pitcher aside for a cram session.

So what’s your point here, Nachoman?

My partner noted to me between innings that these coaches seem not to have taught their players some basic tenets of baseball: maintain contact with the base or call time after a slide, you can’t fake a throw to first from the rubber. Me, I don’t blame the coaches. They get a bare minimum of practice time, during which they rightfully should be more concerned with developing physical skills. Rules and tactical tidbits are learned not by coaching but by experience.

And this brings me back, as always, to the Fundamental Theorem of Nachodom: Baseball is best learned by 10-15 year olds playing numerous unstructured “playground” games without adult involvement.

Think about how you learned various rules of the game. I personally am a nerd about such things, so I learned a lot by noting unusual occurrences in major league games. But some of the most lasting lessons came by playing experience. To wit:

When does the batter run to first base after a dropped third strike? I couldn’t have told you when I was 12. At least, not until I ran into a triple play. I was on third base, bases loaded, none out. The batter struck out, and the catcher dropped the ball. “Run!” shouted an assortment of ignorant soccer moms insistently, with their tone of voice indicating that we baserunners were worse than stupid for failing to run. Realizing that I was forced home if the batter ran to first, I ran. The catcher, of course, tagged me out easily, then threw to second base to put out another confused boy for the triple play. The coach didn’t hold his temper well after the game, when he explained that the batter ONLY has to run to first base if the base is open, or if there are two outs.

You may not remember your own confusion when you were young, but the rule about retouching your base after a caught fly ball is not obvious to novice players.[4] All the boys in Beechwood Elementary School’s third grade in 1981 learned that one the hard way. We drafted teams for kickball in gym class one day, and of course nerdboy Nachoman was chosen last. The captains had been one boy and one girl, who had picked on strict gender lines. Thus, I was stuck as the odd boy out on the girls’ team.

Top of the first inning, the first two boys smugly kicked singles as the girls in their girly way acted as if the ball would mess up their hair if it touched them. With runners at first and second and none out, the next boy who thought he was awesome popped the ball up to me at shortstop. I caught it, and noticed that the runners had just sprinted to the next bases. I stepped on second, tagged the runner from first base, and I had executed an unassisted triple play.

The more games that a kid plays in, the more chances that kid has to learn little bits of baseball knowledge. Nowadays, I hardly ever see pickup games of baseball, softball, stickball, kickball, or whatever. Kids play football or lacrosse or even soccer in those rare times when they are free to fool around by themselves. I haven’t seen any sort of recreational baseball on Woodberry’s campus in five years, when a small group of seniors organized a daily stickball game. Is it any wonder that today’s best baseball players come from the Caribbean?

I call balogna
Mets pitcher J.J. Putz[5] used to be the “closer” for the Mariners, but this year he signed a huge contract with the Mets to be their “setup” man. Francisco Rodriguez was signed to be the closer.

Now, what difference should the defined roles make? Not much. Both pitchers are expected to pitch a single inning in tight game situations. Whether that inning is the 8th or 9th should be rather immaterial. Holding a 1-run lead in the 8th is nearly as critical as holding that lead in the 9th; if the pitcher’s team ends up pulling away in the 9th, then the pitcher’s 8th inning work is MORE important to the victory. Nevertheless, relief pitchers have been conditioned by journalists, agents, and each other that they must pitch the 9th inning to be a mensch.

Mr. Putz has had a rough stretch, which can be attributed to a recently diagnosed shoulder injury. He just took a cortisone shot which should allow him to pitch through the pain. According to Yahoo Fantasy Sports:

“[The injury] explains his recent struggles, though Putz thought his mild drop in velocity was due to the "lack of adrenaline" from pitching in the eighth rather than save situations.”

Oh, boy… Mr. Putz, you’re saying you’re going to stink until you get the adrenaline rush from the 9th inning again? Are you truly talking about the adrenaline rush of a 3-run lead facing the 7, 8, and 9 hitter for the cheapest save in the universe? Or are you REALLY talking about the adrenaline rush picturing the yacht you’re going to buy with the extra money a save can earn on your next contract?

Of course, if mlb would abolish the save statistic, then maybe relief pitchers would be evaluated and paid in better relation to their actual ability and performance.

And if pigs could fly I could have a pulled pork sandwich on my next cross country flight.

Sore loser department
On Sunday night, the Red Sox and the Devil Rays engaged in what looks now, on paper, to be a good game, until the line “time of game: 3:30” jumps off the page. The Nachoman didn’t even bother to watch, knowing that an AL East game on ESPN was nearly guaranteed to be excruciating.

Instead, I found game 4 of the Celtics-Magic playoff series. I’ve kept up a wee bit with the Celtics’ progress this postseason just because I read all of Bill Simmons’ columns. I was thus aware that Glen “Big Baby” Davis has been thrust into action due to the absence of aging former MVP candidate Kevin Garnett.

On the decisive play of this game, with the Celtics down one, Mr. Baby set a screen for Paul Pierce as the clock ticked under 5 seconds. Both defenders jumped Mr. Pierce, surmising correctly that the high profile player would be expected to take the last-second shot. Mr. Pierce cagily and correctly passed off to Mr. Baby, who had a wide open 17 foot jump shot for the win. To everyone’s surprise, including Mr. Baby’s, the shot went in, evening the series.

You can see video of the shot everywhere on youtube,

including here. A couple of notes:

(1) Watch the video in real speed, and ask yourself if the shot beats the buzzer. I suspect your answer will be, “yes, obviously.” I mean, the red light indicating the expiration of the game doesn’t come on until the ball is swishing thorough the basket. No question. Nevertheless, the officials wasted more than a minute checking the replay before they declared the game official. My goodness… they should have been thoroughly confident of their call so as not to even need replay. But if they DID need replay, why did it take more than one quick viewing? The first replay I saw on television was as decisive as could be. What took so long?

(2) Note the title of the video: “Glen “Big Baby” Davis Hits the Game Winner At the Buzzer! (And Pushes Kid.) TNT didn’t show it live, but on replay you can see Mr. Baby make mild contact with a pre-adolescent boy on his way to celebrate with his teammates. The boy’s hat fell to the floor. Sniff. From the Associated Press:

"The father of the 12-year-old boy bumped by Celtics big man Glen ''Big Baby'' Davis after Sunday's game-winning shot is demanding an apology.

Ernest Provetti told the Orlando Sentinel that he wrote the NBA office demanding an apology from Davis for acting like a ''raging animal with no regard for fans' personal safety.'' NBA spokesman Tim Frank confirmed the league received the e-mail but declined to comment on it. "

I hope Mr. Frank demands an apology from Mr. Provetti’s son for his failure to control himself during the last seconds of the game. Look at the video again – Sore Loser Boy had jumped far out of his courtside seat, putting himself within a foot of the court itself. The animal raged within the confines of his cage; Sore Loser Boy was the one who jumped into said cage, and is lucky he merely got his hat knocked off.

Next Week
Noting that Mr. Provetti obtained the apology he sought, as well as 15 minutes of ill-gotten fame, the city of Cincinnati enlists Mr. Provetti's assistance to demand an apology from Mike Brown for two decades of incompetence.

[1] The Nachoman defines “effectively eliminated” as a less than 1% chance of making the playoffs.
[2] I often bastardize justice Potter Stewart’s quotation about quality physics teaching: I can’t define it, but I know it when I see it.
[3] This is usually a good assumption. Managers and players will often feign ignorance in order to argue a call, or in order to get what they hope will be an advantage, but they usually shut up once it’s clear that the umpire knows his business. If a high-level coach in fact is ignorant of a rule, he can get a detailed explanation between innings.
[4] In particular, I remember trying in vain to explain this rule to Thomas the Frenchman on our Haverford College physics department softball team.
[5]

Pronounced “puts,” as in “The boy puts matzoh on the table.” Not the other way.

Ribbie Reporter -- NCAA day 1

2009-05-13T16:08:00.003-04:00

Salisbury 3, Washington and Lee 2

Well then. W&L started Chuck Davidson threw 8 innings, gave up 2 hits and walked 2 ... and took the loss. Argh. Washington and Lee outhit Salisbury 7 to 2 ... and lost. Oy.

Playing the No. 3 team in Division III, a team that has a 2.71 ERA and a .355 team batting average, W&L played very, very well ... and lost. It was a brisk affair, over in 1:35 with complete games from each team.
The 3rd inning was the exciting one. W&L loaded the bases with two outs, and on a 1-2 pitch Catcher Will Lewis demonstrated some great hitting by staying behind an outside fastball and lacing it into the left center gap. W&L led 2-0.
But things went bad in the bottom of the 3rd. With a man on first, Salisbury hit a routine, but spinning, grounder to first. 1B Hunter Serenbetz booted it. Two batters later, with one out and the bases loaded, the number two hitter tapped a slow roller to short. The ball died in the grass, and SS John Ditore tried to make a flip towards second rather than going to first. The Salisbury runner beat the throw to second, so everyone was safe and a run scored. This proved critical when Salisbury's next batter had another RBI groundout that was only the second out instead of the third out.
Two mistakes. But they came in the same inning and at a bad time. And that's all it took for W&L to miss a beautiful upset chance.

They're back in action at 10 a.m. tomorrow vs. Washington and Jefferson. Game broadcast will be available at http://wlur.wlu.edu

Ribbie reporter -- Stay tuned later this week for D-III action

2009-05-11T12:46:00.003-04:00

The Ribbie Reporter has been enjoying the great outdoors -- and some high school baseball up at Woodberry -- instead of watching the Royals waste good pitching with terrible hitting, baserunning and defense. He heads out tomorrow for Salisbury, MD on the Eastern Shore, where Washington and Lee is the No. 8 seed (out of 8) in the NCAA D-III regionals. The winner of the 8 team double elimination tournament heads for the D-III World Series.
Here's a list of the seedings:
1. Salisbury (37-6)
2. Shenandoah (28-6)
3. N.C. Wesleyan (27-19)
4. Christopher Newport (24-11-2)
5. Washington and Jefferson (33-12)
6. York (Pa.) (27-14)
7. Johns Hopkins (24-14)
8. Washington and Lee (22-13)

The only team in this bunch that W&L faced this year was Shenandoah. The Generals lost 5-4 in Lexington and certainly did not look outmatched at any point. We used out #3 starter and our #4/swing reliever in that game. Salisbury will be a tough out of course, and they'll have the advantage of a home crowd behind them. But W&L started the conference tournament by beating Lynchburg College (No. 1 seed in the ODAC) in Lynchburg. It'll help in this case that the game is at 1:15 on Wednesday.

-- Stay tuned later this week for recaps and analysis of all the action.

No post this week -- suspension

2009-05-08T09:01:00.005-04:00

The Nachoman had been suspended for 50 columns for use of performance enhancing substances. These include spell-check, wikipedia, baseball-reference.com, and word processing software. Back in the days when sportswriters wrote pure columns, they had offices full of reference books and a non-electronic Smith Corona typewriter without white-out. We must get back to untainted baseball writing.

On appeal, the Nachoman's suspension was reduced to just one week. He will be back on May 15 with all kinds of clever tidbits about the world of baseball. For a given value of clever, anyway.

Physics and Baseball in Oak Ridge, Tennessee

2009-05-02T08:25:00.006-04:00

Less major league baseball this week for the Nachoman than usual, folks. I’ve got two weeks of heavy umpiring, plus two weekends straight out of town. Currently I’m in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, at a board meeting of the US Association of Young Physicist Tournaments. We’re considering moving our yearly physics debate tournament to Oak Ridge because, as Oak Ridge High School physics teacher Peggy Bertrand puts it, “In Oak Ridge you can’t throw a stone without hitting a physicist.” In central Virginia the same mantra applies, as long as you throw your stone with a cruise missle.

Don’t worry, despite my travels, I have compiled some interesting tidbits about baseball, which you can read in the rest of this 3000 word column. But the first tidbit is about both baseball and physics. Kind of.

The USAYPT needs money. (Who doesn’t?) We need to be able to pay travel costs for the jurors at our yearly tournament, and we’d like to make it less expensive for the teams to attend. The USAYPT directors are all physics teachers, who are utterly clueless about raising money. I thought, perhaps, that the major leagues’ most famous and only physicist might be able to help out.

The following is a letter I sent to Jeff Francis, the pitcher for the Colorado Rockies who had declared a physics major in university in British Columbia before he was drafted. Mr. Francis is on the DL this year, but he signed a fat contract recently… so he might have time and money on his hands.

Dear Mr. Francis,
I’m going to tell you about “physics fights.” I’d like to invite you to sponsor and judge an international physics debate tournament. Let me explain…

I’ve been teaching high school physics for 13 years, most of which have been spent at a boys’ boarding school. I’ve watched your career with some interest, as you’re the only authentic physicist that I know of in the major leagues. (I can’t tell for sure from your bio… clearly you declared a physics major in college, but did you graduate with a degree? If not, how far did you get? What classes did you get to? I’d love to know…)

Anyway, I’ve been professionally involved with baseball as well as physics. I work for STATS, INC scoring games; you are on my list of pitchers whose games I love to work, because you work fast and throw strikes. I’ve written the Everything Kids Baseball Book. I broadcast Woodberry Forest’s games over the internet for the players’ parents to hear. Last year I was given a sabbatical, so I attended the Harry Wendelstedt Umpire School. (If you ever have a chance to talk to Paul Nauert, the school’s chief instructor, ask him about me. I was the crazy guy in the orange shirt and squash goggles who was really, really loud and asked lots of questions.)

For a few years, my main focus outside the classroom has been the USAYPT. I am the director of a day-long tournament in which schools from all over the world come to Woodberry Forest to present their work on four undergraduate-level research problems. The tournament itself consists of “Physics Fights,” ritualized debates in which teams of students present and dispute their results. Think of typical high school debate team, but with physics rather than with politics.

The tournament is growing. Last year we had eight teams attend, including teams from California, New York, Virginia, Tennessee, Singapore, Australia (Brisbane Girls’ Grammar School), and Slovakia. In order to accommodate this expansion, we need to make the tournament into a two-day event.

The issue with a two-day tournament is getting a professional jury. So far, we have survived by asking college professors within a 2-hour radius of Woodberry to volunteer for a day. For a two-day event, we would need to pay for transportation and hotel costs, and hopefully give each juror a small stipend. Problem is, we don’t have that money.

We could run this two-day tournament for $20,000. Our organization’s secretary is starting the process of fundraising, but I thought I’d start with you… on one hand, we hope you’d sponsor us out of the goodness of your heart and a desire to help physics students the world over. That said, think of the unparalleled public relations opportunity this could be... “Major League Pitcher Judges International Physics Tournament” as a headline on Deadspin or as a Sportscenter story could be a coup for you, your team, and for our organization.

The USAYPT is a registered 501(c)(3) public charity, meaning all donations to us are tax deductable. Check our website (www.usaypt.org) for more details about us. Our 2010 tournament will be held on the Friday-Saturday February 5-6. You may contact me via the email address or phone number shown below. I look forward to hearing from you…

Greg Jacobs

Hey, Nachoman, that letter might work! Jeff Francis might be totally inspired to reply!
Yes. And Bud Selig might appoint me Official Physicist of the National League.

And if a frog had wings, he wouldn’t bump his but on the ground when he hopped.

Weird situation of the week
At our monthly meeting, an umpire crew brought up an unusual play they had seen at a local high school game. With runners at first and third, the runner on first base took a lead near the outfield grass. The pitcher threw to the first baseman, who began chasing the runner – who bolted into right field! As the Keystone Cops-style chase ensued, the runner on third jogged home. Is this fair?

Several rules issues are in play here. To start with, the initial lead on the outfield grass is perfectly acceptable. A runner is not required to remain in a straight line between first and second base. (No one ever questions a runner’s right to take a wide turn around first when legging out a double, do they?) The rules state that the runner establishes his own baseline; that means, if the runner wants to establish a baseline in the outfield, so be it.

So, you ask, what’s that rule that allows a runner to be called out for running “out of the baseline?” The key point is that the “out of the baseline” rule only applies WHEN A PLAY IS BEING MADE ON THE RUNNER. If no one is attempting to put the runner out, then he can go where he likes. But when a fielder tries to tag him, he must stay on a line between his position and the base he’s going to. He goes more than three feet outside that line to avoid a tag, he’s out.

In this case, once the first baseman takes a step toward the runner in a bona fide attempt to put him out, that constitutes a “play.” The runner at this point must go straight from his position toward first or second base. When he runs into the outfield, he leaves his established baseline to avoid a tag; thus, he is called out.

Awkward Joey Votto Interview
David Brown, of Yahoo’s “Big League Stew” blog, convinced Joey Votto to grant an interview for his “Answer Man” feature. (Scroll down to the bottom to read Answer Man” features from folks other than Joey Votto.)

In Mr. Brown’s interviews, he asks offbeat, oddball questions designed to get the normally staid baseball men to loosen up and give authentic, spontaneous responses. I suppose the idea of the feature is to reveal a more authentic characterization of the player than can be inferred from the clichés he must spout after each game. Problem was, Mr. Votto didn’t seem to understand the purpose or tone of the interview. He did NOT loosen up. And afterwards, he complained to a beat reporter about Mr. Brown’s interview. He said he should have refused to answer most of these questions… he called his cooperativeness in the face of strange questions a “learning experience.” Come now, Mr. Votto… I don’t deny that the press corps can be evil incarnate to the professional athlete, but giving your fans a peek into your stance on bowling and mustaches should not be a PR disaster for you.

Deep Dish writes:
We haven't had the chance to talk baseball much over the past couple of weeks.

Yeah, Deep Dish, amazing how crazy it can be as a teacher at a boarding school even though a trained orangutan could teach my courses in the spring. With only a week to go before the AP physics exam, my guys are either ready or they’re not. Once high school baseball season is over and I stop umpiring, I'll be ready to watch baseball religiously again. And the Reds will be out of the race by then, so I'll be willing to watch the Cubs or Cardinals or whoever. Not the Yankees, though. I flipped on the TV at 8:30 Sunday night and they were STILL playing a game that started at 4:00.

Here's a random prediction for 2009: keep your eyes on the Pirates.

I've happened to see bits and pieces of a few of their games for no real reason. Tonight I watched the first four innings of their game against the Padres (who have also come a long way). This is backed up by absolutely no concrete statistical data, but it seems to me the Pirates are doing a few things really well:

1) Starting pitching -- actually, I do have some data here. Combined, their starters have one of the lowest ERAs in the majors.

Agreed. Still small-sample-size time, though... I saw the same thing about the Royals LAST year, when they were hanging around after a month. We all know how that turned out, right, KC fans?

2) Defense. They're hustling and getting to a lot of tough balls.
Yes. This is perhaps the most underappreciated aspect of good teams: defensive talent and hustle. It can't be measured well.

3) Moving runners over -- sac bunts and sac flies all over the place.
Perhaps, but those are still outs. Baseball Prospectus rates managers essentially in REVERSE order of the number of sacrifice bunt and hit and run orders. One of the themes of modern statistical analysis is that "little ball," as championed by Dusty Baker et al, is in general less likely to produce runs than Earl Weaver style wait-for-the-three-run-homer. How many times last year -- three, maybe? -- did Dusty Baker order one of his middle-of-the-order guys to bunt late in a tie game... the guy failed, then hit a two-strike walk-off home run.

4) Terrific new old-school uniforms--Obviously the most important factor at work.
Awesome. I haven't see them, but they've got to be better than the technically illegal duds the Pirates have worn for the past two years. (Illegal because of the patterned dots on the sleeves.) I wore an old-school Astros hat to the cookout yesterday, and a student from Texas offered his compliments. You see, I'm the only man in America who liked the 1980s Mike Scott era "rainbow" uniforms.

Cubs are up-and-down. The Cards look really good (the starting pitching point applies here as well). And the Reds played well against the Cubs during their series last week. Cueto beat Zambrano, I think.

As I predicted last year, Johnny Cueto has outperformed Edinson Volquez this year, primarily because Edinson couldn’t hit Jabba the Hutt with the ball if he were standing next to Princess Leia.

NL Central could be more interesting than many thought -- in the preseason predictions almost everyone had the Cubs running away with it.

Could be, but I think the Cardinals defense, or lack thereof, might be their eventual undoing. That and their relief pitching – I watched Kyle McClellan walk three in 0.2 innings before giving up a game-winning two run single.

Don’t worry, folks, you’ll hear more from Deep Dish in later episodes of Nachoman’s Baseball.

The dangers of generalizing based on one week
Carroll Rogers of the Atlanta Journal Constitution wrote one of those 500 word “what we've learned about our team in six games” articles a while back. The Braves started the year 5-1; since then they’ve gone 5-10, and now stand solidly in third place in the NL east. Here’s were the six things that Mr. or Ms. Rogers said he or she had learned. (I don't know whether Carroll Rogers is male or female. That wouldn't matter at all to the Nachoman, except that I desire to refer to him/her with an honorific. Do I say Mr. Rogers? Ms. Rogers? No, I choose "Mx. Rogers." I use "Mx." when a person's gender is unknown and/or irrelevant. Good grammatical invention, no? No? Really, no? Phthphth. I'm using it anyway.)

1. “ The Braves have some pop after all.” Mx. Rogers went on to list all of the Braves with a home run six games into the season. Of course, the Braves rank 23rd in the major leagues in homers as of April 30.

2. The rotation is shored up. Here Mx. Rogers might be on more solid ground, but not because of one week’s worth of performance. It was clear before even Derrick Lowe and Javier Vasquez had even thrown a pitch that the Braves had improved on last year’s starters. Mx. Rogers noted that Braves starters were, after one week, fourth in baseball in ERA; now they’ve only dropped to 6th.

3. The bullpen might have some issues. Gotta love these “might” predictions – they “might” be right, they “might” be the worst sort of bet-hedging. After a few well-publicized first week meltdowns, the Braves bullpen has settled a bit. But they’re still only 20th best in the majors by ERA. (Once again, this isn’t something Mx. Rogers learned in week 1 – the flakiness of the Braves bullpen was a topic in Baseball Prospectus’s Braves article this year.)

4. Jeff Francoeur is showing signs of a comeback. Mr. Francoeur’s OPS stands at .729. That ranks 132nd out of the 198 qualified (i.e. 3.1 plate appearances per game) players in the majors.

What’s funny about this one is how Mx. Rogers draws general conclusions from pitches faced – “He’s going a little deeper into counts (3.62 pitches per plate appearance is up from 3.49 last year).” Really? After 25 at-bats, Mx. Rogers, you think 0.13 pitches per plate appearance is significant? Had Mr. Francoeur seen just THREE more pitches all year, he would be back to his old tricks of jumping on pitches early in the count.

5. Jordan Schafer can hang with the big boys. Well, his OPS is .827. Not bad. Good enough for 82nd of the 198 qualified major leagures. Does that qualify as "hanging with the big boys?" Only time will tell.

No Busch at Busch
Busch beer was created as a homage to Busch stadium. Well, not really a homage, more like a marketing ploy… when the original stadium was built, major league baseball did not allow fields to be named after products or companies. (Baseball has since changed their collective minds.) Nonetheless, it was forbidden to name the field “Budweiser Stadium.” So the Busch family named the field after themselves, “Busch Stadium.” And they created Busch beer.

But now, as reported by Chad Garrison in the

Riverfront Times

, it is difficult to find Busch Beer at Busch stadium. He and concessionaire Sportservice dispute precisely how many concession stands offer the namesake beverage; he says 3, Sportservice says 10-15. Nevertheless, most beer kiosks offer only Bud, Bud Light, Bud Dry, Bud Ice, Lady Bud, Raspberry Bud, and Tartar Control Bud.

Announcers being critical for the sake of being critical
Leadoff the 5th inning Sunday in San Diego, Macias hit a ball deep into the corner in right field. He picked up the ball (replays showed him looking into right field before he rounded the second base bag) and turned on the jets for third base.

Problem was, he stumbled about three steps beyond second, and he almost fell to the ground. He regained his footing, but a perfect throw retired him in a close play.

The Pirate announcers used this occasion to launch into a diatribe about the “poor baserunning decision.” As the rules of baseball read, apparently, anyone who makes the first out of the inning at third base should be publicly humiliated.

Yes, that’s usually a good rule of thumb – if you can’t make it to third easily, then with no outs, stay at second. In this case, though, Macias would have made it to third easily had he not stumbled! And even with the stumble, it took a perfect relay throw to get him! How is that a bad baserunning decision? What, was Mr. Macias supposed to anticipate his stumble?

No, folks, this is instead a bad announcing decision, to criticize a player incorrectly. FSN Pittsburgh compounded their error upon return from commercial – they showed the entire play again, including the stumble and the bang-bang play at third. The same announcer maintained his idiocy – despite the video evidence to the contrary, he claimed that Mr. Macias would have been thrown out easily even had he not stumbled. Aarrgh! Are you too vain to admit you made a mistake in your criticism? Of course you are… instead of acknowledging that you were too quick to throw stones, you essentially told your audience that the sky is green. If Macias was not thrown out “easily” in the real play, how would he have been thrown out by a greater distance without a stumble? Grrr.

And Marv Levy is still in negotiations about the Bills game
The Cincinnati-Pittsburgh game of Sept. 27 has been moved to 4:15 so that the New York-Tennessee game can be played at 1:00. This is due to the Jewish Holiday of Yom Kippur.

NachoGrandpa says: Apparently Dolly Parton and Reba McIntyre complained that they wouldn't be able to watch the game and also make it to Kol Nidre.

Next Week
The Nachoman notes his displeasure that most Oak Ridge residents look and act like physicists, not like the Oak Ridge Boys. I didn’t hear country music anywhere in the town.

P.S. Thanks a million to neighbor Jason Getz -- who needs a theme name -- for tracking down an early draft of this column and sending it to me via email.

Ribbie Reporter -- The Generals win the pennant!

2009-04-30T15:31:00.001-04:00

At long last, I have my report from the ODAC baseball tournament. W&L’s pennant is their first ever and will also result in their first-ever trip to the NCAA playoffs. They’ll return to action May 13 in Salisbury, Md.

Rest? Who needs to rest in the playoffs?

There were many standouts during the five games of course, but pitchers Brendan Clark and Chuck Davidson deserve special mention. The two gentlemen pitched a combined 24.1 innings (out of a possible 45). They allowed ZERO earned runs and only two earned runs. Davidson pitched 8 innings on one day’s rest in the semifinal, allowing only 1 unearned run on four hits. He even told the coached he wanted to pitch in the final, though thankfully they wouldn’t let him. Davidson’s secrets were simple: avoid walking people, throw your fastball on the corners with consistency and use a good slider for strikeouts. Clark pitched in four relief in all four of the victories. His most impressive showing was when he threw 4.2 innings of scoreless relief to protect a 6-6 tie in the quarterfinals. In that stretched he struck out five, walked one and gave up two hits. The win in that quarterfinal – against Randolph-Macon College – came after senior Second baseman Byron Peyster bashed a two-run homer in the top of the 9th to break a 6-6 tie. The homer – Byron’s first of the season and third of his college career – came on a 1-2 count. I asked Byron what he was thinking at the plate, and his response deserves to be reprinted here: “Well, I’d struck out looking the previous at bat, so I just got really close to the plate and kept thinking, ‘don’t let him call you out again.’ The pitch was right over the middle of the plate so I swung as hard as I could and feeling that bat connect was a really, really good feeling.”

Ah yes, the mantra for successful hitting: “I swung as hard as I could.”

The title game

By Sunday afternoon’s championship game, both W&L and opponent Virginia Wesleyan were nearly out of pitching. Both teams had already played four games in as many days, and the title match would be game five. W&L trotted out Andrew Henderson, a senior who’d had a tough season, losing his DH job and then his spot in the pitching rotation. His ERA was an unsightly 7.20. He’d been lit up on Friday in W&L’s only tournament loss, throwing a disastrous relief stint where he couldn’t hit the strike zone. So we were a bit concerned about what might happen.

Henderson has good stuff. But he’s so inconsistent that you never know what’s coming. His best weapon is a big 12-6 curveball that he throws consistently for strikes. His fastball is in the low 80s, far from overpowering. But in the title game, he was extremely effective. He threw his fastball to both corners, and most of the times he missed his target it was low and away (a good spot to miss). This let him throw the curveball on 1-2 counts several times, and he got three batters to strike out looking. And he focused on challenging hitters and trusting his defense. Wesleyan got two out hits in the first, third and fifth, but since Henderson was challenging – and retiring – lead-off hitters the damage was minimal. He gave up a solo homer in the fourth to the Wesleyan cleanup man but pounced back by retiring the next three men in order. Henderson finally tired in the sixth, allowing a double and single to Virginia Wesleyan’s best two hitters. But by that point W&L was up 10-1.

When you start a pitcher with a 7.20 ERA you’re just hoping for one or two decent innings. Henderson gave W&L five of them. Wesleyan’s starter, in contrast, didn’t make out of the first. They’d gone through two pitchers and were down 6-0 before they ever got a chance to bat.

What’s next

I don’t know if what will happen at the regionals. W&L could go 0-2 and be back home in 48 hours. But in 2005 Hampden-Sydney – the number six seed in the ODAC – won the conference tournament and the regional, advancing all the way to the D-III World Series. W&L in 2009 was the number six seed in the ODAC. Could fate repeat itself? Here’s what I do know: If Davidson and Clark continue to throw strikes and mow down batters, W&L will be a scary team at regionals. If surprising standouts like Andrew Henderson suddenly emerge, who knows what can happen?

Bartman, questioning Knight Rider, and other stories from mlb week 3

2009-04-24T09:29:00.004-04:00

Yeah, I’ve been watching a lot of Reds baseball this week. The Reds are 9-6 and don’t appear to stink as bad as they have since, well, the last millennium. But appearances are deceiving.

I used mlb.com’s awesome standings tool to quickly check up on the Reds records each year on April 24. Remember, the Reds haven’t had a winning record for the year since 2000… yet, they’ve been .500 or above on April 24 in 6 of the 8 seasons that mlb.com could tell me about. This means I should expect a collapse, right?

Right. They’re still the Reds until they prove otherwise.

Carlos Lee the contortionist
Saturday night in Houston, Carlos Lee tried to score from 2nd on a soft ground ball single to left. Jerry Hairston fielded the ball in shallow left field and threw quickly to the plate.[1] The throw was just a bit off-line, but in plenty of time. Catcher Ramon Hernandez fielded the throw cleanly and went to apply the tag, but Mr. Lee’s slide took him way to the first-base side of the plate. Mr. Lee barely touched the plate with his foot, while his body contorted into a question-mark shape as he avoided the tag.

Mr. Pouty Pants
Aaron Harang struggled to start the 7th inning – he hit a batter, then issued his first walk. He clearly was tiring, plus Carlos Lee was up. Mr. Lee had garnered three hits off of Harang on the night. Dusty Baker made the logical move, bringing in the relief. Jared Burton entered the game. He threw ball one, just outside. Burton hit the catcher’s glove, but he didn’t get the call. The next pitch was in the same place, called ball two. Mr. Burton gloved the return throw angrily, and paced around the mound.

Okay, Mr. Pouty Pants, time to throw a strike, right? You know now you’re not going to get that call. Well, Mr. Pants tried again, throwing ball three in the same spot, making the same face after he didn’t get the call. Ball four was low, and the bases were loaded.

Burton pitched well to strike out Hunter Pence, and got to 0-2 on Geoff Blum. Then he wasted two pitches that even the Nachoman would have known to let go by. Finally, on 2-2, the hammer hit – Blum doubled in two runs, Pudge Rodriguez doubled in two, and the game broke open. It started, though, with Mr. Pouty Pants.

What would YOU do with a seven run lead?
With a seven run lead in the 8th inning, in came Chris Sampson for the Astros. He didn’t pout, he just nibbled around and walked the leadoff hitter, the .179-hitting Ramon Hernandez, on a 3-2 count. Boux.

Even the fans who get to be on TV know better
Fox Sports Houston has long been known to the Nachoman as the worst of the regional FSN channels. In every game the audience is treated to an in-game interview with a fan, celebrity, or a player’s family. Additionally, a perky twentysomthing woman spends an entire inning in the booth advertising upcoming Astros events. She makes awkward, quasi-flirtatious conversation with the commentators, who through little fault of their own are made to seem like dirty old men. I have on several occasions turned off FSN Houston high definition in favor of the low def opposing team’s broadcast, or even for audio-only.

In Monday’s Reds-Astros game, the Reds started Houston native Paul Janish at shortstop. Of course, FSN did not confine their coverage of Mr. Janish’s homecoming to the pregame. When Janish came to bat in the 4th inning, a perky young woman began an interview with Janish’s aunt. One excrutiating sentence into the interview, Mr. Janish grounded into a double play to end the inning.

Not to be deterred, the perky stadium reporter continued the interview after the commercial. Janish’s dad responded politely to a question, and interrupted his answer to note “There’s a 6-3 putout. I’m helping the booth out.” In other words, “shut up and let me watch my son play, please.”

Two innings later, the same perky woman climbed to the most remote seats in the stadium to interview the “fans of the game.” Said fans were a 25-30 year old man and a twentysomething woman sitting very, very close to the man with her hand on his leg. These fans were a good 50 yards from any other occupied seats. The FSN stadium reporter asked banal questions for a minute or two (while the game went on), while the man and woman made it clear with their terse answers that they would like to get back to, in their words, “romancing” each other, thank you very much.

Bartman II
On Tuesday night in Chicago, one of the Reds hit a foul pop reasonably deep down the left field line. The left fielder couldn’t quite get there as it fell nearly on the railing separating the stands from foul territory. A fan in the front row reached over the rail attempting to catch the ball.

Does anyone else see a problem with this?

Why yes, say traumatized Cubs fans.[2] The fan on Tuesday was sitting in THE VERY SEAT made famous by the goat[3] of the 2003 NLCS, Steve Bartman. Even though the left fielder had no possible play on the ball, a true Cub fan should know better than to reach into the field of play, especially from this particular seat.

Alou didn’t have much of a play on the infamous ball, either, really.
Credit to FSN Cincinnati,[4] who very quickly cued up the footage of the actual 2003 Bartman play. I did, really, actually watch that play live on television, but I was falling asleep. I have vague memories of the subsequent Alex Gonzalez error, but I woke up surprised that the Marlins had actually come back. Things that I noticed this week, that are somewhat surprising with six years of perspective:

Moses Alou had virtually no chance of catching that ball. It was above the railing, a railing which sits at least seven feet above the field. Mr. Alou would have had to leap high on the run just to make contact with the ball, if the ball in fact wasn’t too far into the stands to touch. Maybe, possibly, Alou could have touched the ball in his glove… but then, could he have held on as he slammed into the brick, or as his glove hit the railing? We all remember Alou’s angry gesturing after Bartman’s interference, but good outfielders think they can catch anything.

Bartman may be public enemy #1 for Cubs fans now. But I’d like to get the names of all of the people who I saw cheering for Mr. Bartman as he made the catch in the stands. The crowd applauded Bartman's catch! It was only later in the game, after the Cubs collapsed, that the fans turned on Mr. Bartman. Shame on you, people. If you need a scapegoat[5], I’d suggest the 65 year old curse.

You will not question Knight Rider
Woodberry Forest’s three-sport coach Colin Gay had an important question for me at lunch this week. In the 1980’s show “Knight Rider,” the car KITT frequently is seen entering a tractor-trailer via a ramp, while both car and truck are moving at highway speeds. Coach Gay rightly wondered about the relative velocities of KITT’s wheels and the truck’s ramp: if KITT was going 60 mph relative to the ground, and suddenly hit the ramp that was nearly at rest relative to KITT, shouldn’t we at least see KITT sort of peal-out into the truck? Don’t the laws of physics suggest that this is a difficult and unsafe maneuver, one that is likely to see KITT impaled on the truck more often than not because his wheels are turning so fast?

Please understand that Coach Gay appropriately and solemnly prefaced his commentary with a disclaimer: “Understand that I am NOT questioning Knight Rider.” As long as we’re all clear.

Coach Gay’s real question (but he is NOT QUESTIONING Knight Rider) was about how the sequence was filmed. Postulates among the faculty at lunch included: Film KITT entering a stationary trailer at low speed in a parking lot, then superimpose the highway over a blue screen. Run the film back at higher-speed for the television footage. Someone also suggested actually doing the stunt in reverse and running the film backwards; I don’t see what advantage that provides, but I’m open to ideas.

I’ve read through the entire Knight Rider Wikipedia article, and I’ve seen no reference to Coach Gay’s conundrum. If anyone knows how the stunt was actually produced, please email the Nachoman to let him know.

Need a clever holiday gift?
Buried in the middle of the long Knight Rider article, under “Theme Music,” was a note about the November 1983 release of the hit single “A Knight Rider Christmas.” This truly wonderful song features the trademark synthesizer theme… along with William Daniels, the voice of KITT, rapping. Yes, rapping. In 1983.

The Collapse of the Week, brought to you by AIG
Wednesday in DC, Gnats pitcher John Lannan pitched seven scoreless innings of five-hit ball. Atlanta’s Jair Jurrjens matched his line nearly identically – he gave up six hits. The game was still scoreless entering the ninth inning. Matt Diaz singled with one out, the next guy hit into a force play, and reliever Garrett Mock set himself up nicely to get out of the inning.

Runner on first, two out. Mock walked 8th place hitter Jordan Schafer. Yoink, in came Mike Hinckley.

Runners on first and second, two out. Mr. Hinckley walked pinch hitter Martin Prado. With the bases loaded and two out, Mr. Hinckley walked Kelly Johnson to force in the eventual winning run.

What, you’ve never heard of Garrett Mock and Mike Hinckley, either? I wonder why not.

Babe Ruth lives!
Reds pitchers were 0-24 on the season before Johnny Cueto’s two hits on Wednesday night. Pitcher Micah Owings didn’t get a hit in his two starts, but he is 2-3 as a pinch hitter with two doubles.

Olbermann pays too much attention to New York; the Nachoman pays too much attention to Cincinnati
Former Sportscenter host from back when the show was good Keith Olbermann is now writing three times a week for mlb.com. His “baseball nerd” column is – don’t worry – devoid of politics. I would describe his writing for the site as an extended version of what he used to say on sportscenter while narrating and introducing clips of the night’s games. The items have a short, to-the-point, local-newsy feel to them. That shouldn’t surprise anyone, since that’s the genre in which Mr. Olbermann has immersed himself for nearly two decades at ESPN and MSNBC. I like Olbermann’s liberal[6] use of photographs.

Many fans will likely object to the New York-ness of his posts – KO attended Mets and Yankees games all of the past couple of weeks, and wrote much about them. I have no trouble with that. Mr. Olbermann lives in New York, and he’s writing what he knows. I just hope that mlb.com will pony up to send KO to a state that doesn’t border an ocean this year. (And I hope that KO agrees to go.)

Speaking of good sportswriting on the web
I’ve found a new author whose work I automatically print out for later consumption: Joe Posnanski, who made his name as columnist for the Kansas City Star. I’ve been familiar with Mr. Posnanski’s work for several years, but I usually have read his perceptive, irony-laced discussions of why the Royals stink. This site’s own Ribbie Reporter eats these articles up, while I tend to yawn.[7]

Now, though, Mr. Posnanski has begun writing a weekly, nationally-focused column for si.com. These have more than held my interest, they’ve become weekly required reading. Not since Jonah Keri stopped writing his weekly columns for ESPN.com have I found an insightful, intelligent baseball column that isn’t myopic about the local team.

As a first taste of his writing, I highly recommend Joe Posnanski’s column on counts. It includes a positively Ribbie Reporter-styled comment at the end, when Mr. Posnanski notes that pitchers always have an advantage over hitters, so a manager’s pitching moves are always likely to work out. In the footnote, Posnanski says:

This "still likely to work" rule is not in effect when it comes to Royals manager Trey Hillman, who has now gone EIGHT DAYS since pitching Joakim Soria. EIGHT DAYS. Maybe he's saving Soria for private functions, birthday parties, bar mitzvahs and so on.

I suggested a couple of weeks ago on this site that managers should manage by “feel” rather than “stats,” principally because so many variables are involved with any individual managerial decision that too many statistics will provide the manager conflicting advice. A good manager’s “gut feel” is in reality a holistic evaluation of statistical and tactical information.

I assume in my argument that we’re talking a manager with a good feel for the game. I don’t object to Mr. Hillman’s decisions merely because they’re in conflict with platoon splits or OPS/WHIP numbers. I object to Mr. Hillman’s decisions because, as related to me by the Ribbie Reporter and by Joe P’s writing, the decisions don’t pass the common sense test.

Is it possible a 35 year old Jewish physics teacher to talk “smack?”
I play in a fantasy baseball league hosted on yahoo. Their site is pretty good. We use it because it allows the commissioner to set the scoring rules and roster spots as strangely as he wants – our head-to-head league uses 30 statistical categories and a 20-person active roster.[8] My only objection is that, while yahoo hosts the league for free, in order to get live statistics, I have to pay $10 per season.

One of yahoo’s features is a little post-it note on which users are encouraged to “Strike fear into the heart of your opponent with some strategic smack talk.” Woah! Maybe the Ribbie Reporter (a member of our league) will wilt when he hears my cruel yet witty barbs. Perhaps I can encourage him to bench Albert Pujols. Perhaps, as I fear, I am merely a complete dork even to contemplate posting “smack” talk in a pretend baseball league.

In recognition of my actual ability to talk “smack,” here’s what I actually posted to the Electric Marshmallows team page:

“I have posted some smack talk. Have I stricken my opponent with fear yet? And is this in fact "strategic" smack talk? Or is it more tactical?”

As a driving instructor, I stress right turns and left turns. They’re the most critical kinds of turns.
Dusty Baker on mlb.com after the Reds won 7-1 on getaway day Thursday in Chicago: “That's why I try to stress getaway day victories. They usually prevent a sweep, create a sweep or they win a series for you.”

I totally understand Dusty’s point, the one he attempted to make further down in the paragraph that I partially quoted. A strong mental approach is especially necessary on getaway days, even moreso at the end of a long road trip. It’s tempting to go through the motions in anticipation of the imminent arrival home; it’s easy for a players’minds to be focused on wives, families, and/or girlfriends when said players are paid ungodly sums to focus on the game at hand. Dusty has a young team whom he is training in the mindset of the professional.

Nevertheless, look at the logic of what Dusty said. In a three-game series, OF COURSE a getaway day victory creates a sweep, prevents a sweep, or wins a series. The only possible exceptions to Dusty’s rule come (a) in a 4-game series in which one team trails 1-2 and wins on getaway day; or (b) in a 2-game series when the team that lost the first game salvages a split.

Next Week:
The Nachoman searches for an A-Team Christmas Album, which I hope against hope features an HM Murdock rap with BA Baracus singing opera.

[1] This in itself was an achievement for the Reds. For years, Adam Dunn played out there. The ball would have gone off the heel of his glove, and he would still be chasing the ball down by the wall while the runners circled the bases.
[2] And $&#$^ you, too, they say
[3] Ha!
[4] And this station needs all the love they can get after incurring the wrath of Reds Nation (such as it is) last week. FSN cut away from a close game in the 9th inning with Joey Votto up and men on base… to show the Best Dang Sports Show Period. Oops.
[5] Ha, again!
[6] And Ha!
[7] Instead I read similar articles about why the Reds stink. And I won’t even start on the Bengals.
[8] You think that’s nerdly? That’s nothing. Consider my fantasy football league… half the league – not my half – are improvisational comedians. Several of us are professional writers. All are complete nerds. Thus, the league is a role playing league. We are expected to develop and play a character in all interactions with our opponents.

Ribbie Reporter -- We interrupt MLB play for this collegiate update

2009-04-23T16:28:00.004-04:00

The 2009 Old Dominion Conference Tournament is upon us
Yes, it's time for the Ribbie Reporter's annual pilgrimage to Lynchburg, Va., where he does the radio broadcasts for Washington and Lee University as they participate in their conference tournament. He'll be sharing thoughts on the games he sees throughout the weekend.

Now THAT'S pitching
The Nachoman frequently laments the sloth-like pace of MLB games. So he'll be pleased to hear that No. 6 seed W&L beat No. 1 seed Lynchburg College 4-1 Thursday morning in a game that lasted 1 hour and 48 minutes. W&L started Chuck Davidson, their number 2 starter and a guy with a lot of potential who has struggled to put everything together in one complete package this season. But he was MASTERFUL Thursday. He went seven innings and threw 81 pitches, 54 of them for strikes. He walked one batter and gave up 3 hits. He only let 3 hitters get to three ball counts. Davidson pitched backwards to several of the Lynchburg hitters, getting ahead 0-1 and 0-2 with a curve/slurve that he was locating on both sides of the plate. He came back with fastballs that kept catching both corners with precision. In short, he almost always put the ball exactly where he wanted too.
Ace Brendan Clark came on for the 8th (Davidson was pulled since W&L wanted him available for Saturday's game... the tourney involves 4-5 games in 4 days so juggling the staff can be tough). He threw 21 pitches, 17 of them for strikes. He allowed only 1 hit.

What's the moral of the story here?
Throw strikes, hit the corners, get ahead in the count. Joe Posnanski, who writes for the KC Star, recently did a lengthy breakdown of how batters fare in different counts.
The main take away: MLB hitters hit for a .334 average and a .600 slugging % with zero or one strikes. They his .190 and slug .290 with two strikes. These trends hold true for all of baseball. If you get ahead in the count and don't walk people you'll be successful. Most pitchers know this, I suppose, so I guess the key is execution.

More to follow after Friday afternoon's game, and a weekend wrapup will come on Sunday or Monday.

-The Ribbie Reporter

Ribbie Reporter -- Using your bullpen effectively

2009-04-19T18:23:00.003-04:00

Why do Trey Hillman and so many other managers misuse their bullpens?

Like many other baseball fans, I've long been puzzled by the fact that most managers only use their closers to pitch the 9th inning when there is a save situation. Few managers ask closers for a four, five or six out save. Does it make sense to anyone else around here that you should use your best reliever at the game's most pivotal points? Anyone?

This brings us to Sunday's Royals vs. Rangers game. KC led 5-3 heading into the 8th. Setup man Ron Mahay -- who got the last out in the 7th -- comes out to face the Rangers in the bottom of the 8th. He yields a lead off double and then 1st Baseman Mike Jacobs (one of the world fielders in the league, according to John Dewan's Fielding Bible) makes an error. Men on first and third. Tying run is now on board. Since KC's other set-up man -- Juan Cruz -- had already pitched in the 7th, the Royals were running low on top relievers. This is when I would have summoned Soria for a six out save. Royals Manager Trey Hillman instead turned to Jamey Wright, one of our middle relievers. Wright got two quick outs before yielding a run-scoring single. Now it's 5-4. Again, why not bring in your CLOSER WHO WAS AN ALL-STAR LAST YEAR? But no. Wright was left in to pitch and yielded two more singles, tying the game at 5.

On to the Bottom of the 9th. Tie game. Hillman can use: a) Wright, b) closer Joakim Soria, or c) bum Kyle Farnsworth. Wright was hit in the 8th. Farnsworth has already blown two games for the Royals and has a 16.20 ERA. He is already my least favorite Royals player since Jason Grimsley, and we're not even past mid-April yet. Hillman choose C, of course. Michael Young led off the 9th with a homer, of course. The Royals lost, of course. And a 5-3 lead with 6 outs to go became a 6-5 loss all without one of the league's best relievers ever getting into the action! I will no go walk barefoot across burning coals and broken glass.

OJ Mayo, fly balls, and (of course) the Sausage Race

2009-04-17T19:57:00.005-04:00

Welcome to the end of week 2 of the 2009 season. Events of note in baseball this week include both New York teams losing their inaugural games at Theft From Taxpayers Stadiums, the 8-1 start of the low-payroll Marlins, and perhaps the Wakefield near-no-hitter. As is my custom, the Nachoman will ignore these well-covered stories, choosing to focus on Polish Sausages, reality television, and the details of a basebrawl that didn’t make the headlines. But first…

West Virginia rules that OJ Mayo is, in fact, a jerk
Here’s a case that probably didn’t make the local papers. According to this month’s Referee magazine, the West Virginia supreme court of appeals overturned a lower court’s ruling and said that the state high school sports association DOES, in fact, have the power to suspend athletes for on-court incidents without due process.

You may remember the original incident. Back in 2007, National high school basketball star OJ Mayo taunted an opponent after he (Mr. Mayo) consummated a dunk. The official assessed a technical foul, escorted Mr. Mayo to the bench, and gave instructions for Mr. Mayo to stay away from the opponent for the time being. OJ willfully ignored the official’s instructions, and headed directly back to continue his taunt… whereupon the official T’d him up for the second and last time. Mayo was ejected; he bumped the referee so hard he knocked him down. Five of Mr. Mayo’s teammates were similarly ejected when they left the bench in the ensuing near-melee.

In West Virginia, a player who is ejected from a basketball game must serve an automatic two game suspension. Slimeball lawyers immediately went to court on behalf of Mr. Mayo and his teammates. The slimeballs argued that a government institution such as a public school may not suspend players, causing “irreparable harm,” without due process (i.e. formal hearing of an appeal). A judge issued an injunction allowing everyone involved to play in the next two games, which not coincidentally included a game against a regional powerhouse that would be on national television.

This part of the case made headlines everywhere a few years ago. What you probably didn’t hear was that the court eventually ruled in favor of Mayo and his posse – they basically usurped the official’s right to make a judgment on the court by branding the West Virginia state rule about suspensions unconstitutional. (They also directed the school system to pay Mr. Mayo’s court costs.) Now, regardless of whether you share the Nachoman’s views of Mr. Mayo, such a ruling sets a dangerous precedent. Can you imagine the late-night local television ads? “If you’ve been injured in an accident, or if the ref gave your innocent son a red card, then you can get compensation. Call the law offices of Jones and Snake.”

Fortunately, the West Virginia supreme court was smart enough to stop the insanity. They overturned the lower court ruling. Even though the event involved a public school, they said, extracurricular participation is not a civil right, like school attendance; therefore, sports are not subject to due process rules. Now, at least, West Virginia courts have set the same precedent as many (but not all!) other states: The judgment calls of sports officials are not subject to review by the legal system. OJ Mayo was able to buck the system, but hopefully the next spoiled brat will not have the same success.

I am ceaselessly fascinated with the Milwaukee Sausage Race.
In Friday’s race, according to CSN Chicago, the Hot Dog had quite a mishap. He fell down, “right out of his bun.” Anyone have a highlight to show me?[1]

This is not an infield fly
I’m waiting to see a catcher take advantage of an obscure rules provision. Imagine runners on first and second with less than two out and the pitcher batting. Ideal sacrifice situation, right? Right. Let’s say the pitcher pops up the bunt attempt in front of the plate. What do you do as the catcher?

You let the ball fall to the ground untouched. Then you throw to third and to second for the 2-5-6 double play. (If the pitcher didn’t bother to jog out the popup, then you can get a 2-5-6-4 triple play.)

Why does this work? The runners have to stay close to their bases, assuming the ball will be caught. Then when the ball is dropped, the runners are forced to move.

But Nachoman, isn’t the infield fly rule designed to prevent just such a double or triple play? Why yes, it is… in the situation I described, if the batter swings and hits a popup, he’s automatically out, regardless of whether the ball is caught, so as not to put the offense at a disadvantage. But the rules explicitly exclude bunts and line drives from being ruled as infield flies.

Note that the catcher must let the ball fall *untouched*. If he intentionally drops the ball after contacting it, the batter is dead and the batter is out.

Ooh, a fly ball!
Marty Brennaman noted that Milwaukee fans don’t seem to understand the notion of a routine fly ball. Every time the ball goes in the air, they ooh and ah as if Hank Aaron himself still played in their town, even if the left fielder camps under the ball 80 feet in front of the warning track. I watched on television Tuesday and Wednesday, and I decided he’s right. The Milwaukee crowd reminds me of the old NFL Europe crowds, who knew nothing about football but were drunk enough to cheer for anything. Since they were soccer people by nature, they reserved their cheering for extra points and routine field goals, because hey, kicking, they understand that!

New member of the Nachoman’s enemies list for slow play
Francisco Rodriguez, Mets reliever. Sure, the guy is good… his curveball looks exactly like the fastball coming out of his arm, and he made plenty of Padres look silly in his inning Thursday night. But… he took for EVER between pitches, walking around, rubbing up the ball, looking in as if the catcher’s signals were dissertations sent via Morse code. Frankie Rodriguez, your slow work and disdain for the proper pace of the game has landed you a spot on the Nachoman’s Enemies List.

I’ll never understand why ESPN can’t figure out international soccer.
The Champions League playoffs are, to Europeans, every bit as exciting and important as NFL playoffs to Americans. The structure of a playoff match is straightforward: two full, regulation, 90-minute games are played, one at each team’s home ground. The winner is the team who scores the most total, or “aggregate,” goals. If the teams are tied in aggregate, the team who scored more goals at the opponent’s ground wins.

The effect of the two-legged structure is that each “game” should really be treated as a “half.” For example, two weeks ago, Chelsea beat Liverpool 3-1 at Liverpool in the first leg of their match. On Tuesday, when the teams played at Chelsea, Chelsea was up by two goals. The aggregate is the only score that matters.

Nevertheless, ESPN chose – and has ALWAYS chosen, in every Champions League match I’ve ever watched on the channel – to display only the score of the current leg on screen. The screen said 0-0, even though Chelsea held an overwhelming 2-goal lead. The current-game score is worse than useless, because it gives a false sense of the game situation.

Why does ESPN not show the aggregate score on screen? Would they ever show just the second-half score of a football game? No, of course not, because ESPN people actually understand football.

And they not only buried the lede, they completely missed it
A brawl will always attract the attention of the Nachoman, especially when it involves one of the pitchers on my fantasy team and a 6-game suspension. Red Sock Josh Beckettt earned baseball jail for 6 games because he threw at Bobby Abreu’s head in Sunday’s game.

“Evil bastard, how could a major league pitcher throw near someone’s head. How awful. Burn him.” That’s what most folks would say after reading the ESPN story about the suspension, especially if those folks are as sick of the Red Sox as the rest of the universe outside New England. But before rendering your own moral judgment, take a look at the video and the mlb.com story. The video speaks for itself… what ACTUALLY happened was that Mr. Abreu called time, the umpire called time while Mr. Beckett was already in his motion, and Mr. Beckett went ahead with his pitch, as pitchers are taught to do.

The question becomes, did Mr. Beckett throw at Mr. Abreu’s head as retaliation for the heinous act of calling time? Or, die Mr. Beckett just throw the ball randomly? It’s hard to tell. Joe West’s umpire crew did not acknowledge any inappropriate action on Mr. Beckett’s part – he was not ejected from the game. (About three Angels were ejected, primarily for attempting unsuccessfully to fight with Mr. Beckett.)

Evil corporation of the week
I got an unsolicited phone call from “your local Domino’s Pizza” this afternoon, promising a “special offer just for you!” Not bloody likely, I thought – if this isn’t a prank call or phishing scheme, then I’ll bet Domino’s just called every customer in their database.

Upon my inquiry, the manager at the local Domino’s confirmed that yes, the call was authentically from Domino’s, but that the advertising scheme was developed and run by the corporate office, NOT the local store. In fact, he said, he’s been trying desperately to contact the corporate office because he’s had so many customer complaints about the phone calls.

I’d say that Domino’s has just lost my business… but their cold, flavorless, cardboard pizza already lost it. I’ll take Papa John’s and Pizza Hut any day.[2]

Only Vin Scully could make Jackie Robinson Day interesting
Okay, okay, the universe gets it – Jackie Robinson was the first black major leaguer in the 20th century, he was stoic in the face of ungodly prejudice, and so on. That is all correct; Mr. Robinson is, without question and with no sarcasm intended, the greatest baseball player who ever lived. That said, my own perspective is that it would be nice if the country would take the occasion of the election of the first black president to turn Jackie’s story into a historic footnote – mainstream Americans no longer issue casual death threats to people based on their race. Instead, baseball chooses to whack their viewers over the head with the social sledgehammer.

The only broadcast that, in the Nachoman’s opinion, handled Jackie Robinson Day properly was that of the Dodgers. The only mention of the festivities was made at the opening, with a Vin Scully story. He gave a first-hand account of the Dodgers clubhouse on a tense day in Cincinnati when Jackie Robinson had received some credible death threats. In the locker room, Robinson’s teammates kept trying to break the tension with jokes, none of which really worked… until one Dodger made a comment that Vin remembered as “poignant” 62 years later: he said, “I’ve got it. We can *all* wear number 42, then no one in Cincinnati will know who’s the real Jackie Robinson.” *That* produced laughter throughout the clubhouse.

Of course, Mr. Scully told this story on the anniversary of Mr. Robinson’s debut, when, yes, everyone on every team wore number 42. I generally can’t stand it when baseball broadcasters try to wax poetic or show off their social consciousness.[3] I’ll listen to Mr. Scully, though, talking about any topic in the universe.

Why do I even bother to watch Edinson Volquez anymore?
Consider his outing against the Brewers on Monday, which was typical: More balls than strikes… 3-2 on seemingly every hitter… took his time in between pitches… failed to cover first base on a grounder to the right side… balked… overthrew the fastball… He generally looked as if he had no clue what he was doing, like a boy trying to do a man’s job. I don’t understand. With the kind of killer stuff that comes out of Mr. Volquez’s right arm, he could throw down the middle of the plate and simply dare the opposition to hit him, and he’d be successful. Why nibble?

I note that two pitchers in particular, Ryan Dempster and Kyle Lohse, are having considerable success after leaving the Reds organization. When they were with the Reds, they were known as head cases without the mental fortitude to succeed at the major league level. Now, they’re among the league leaders in all sorts of pitching categories. What changed? I wonder if this says anything about the Reds’ coaching staff over the years. I hope it doesn’t predict the future of Edinson Volquez.

Dusty finally did what I wanted to do all night
“This might be one of those woodshed deals,” said Marty Brennaman when Dusty Baker came out to talk to Edinson Volquez with no one warming up in the bullpen.

The late Jack Soete, who taught me how to holler at the television, dived into essentially a comedy routine when the pitching coach would come out to talk to 1990s reliever Rob Dibble. Mr. Dibble had been a lights-out reliever in the Reds championship year, but in later years, he couldn’t control his pitches or his temper.

When the pitching coach came to the mound to talk to an angry Dibble, the coach looked totally intimidated. “Oh, Mr. Dibble,” Jack would shout in a falsetto. “Mr. Dibble, would you pretty please throw some strikes, if it suits your plans for the evening? Also please don’t punch me.”

Unfortunately, Jack’s theatric interpretation of the Reds pitching coach conversing with his pitchers has seemed more accurate than not for the past couple of decades.

The Nachoman would prefer a Polish Sausage.
Cincinnati television broadcaster Chris Welch turned 53 on Tuesday night, when the Reds played in Milwaukee. The rest of the broadcast team presented him not with a birthday cake, but with a birthday Italian sausage, complete with candles. Mmmmm…

News is what gets broadcast, and what gets broadcast is news.
Um, why is it such a big deal when the NFL releases its schedule? Other than, because ESPN and the NFL say it is? I mean, everyone knew ahead of time exactly which teams would play which other teams. The schedule follows a formula: two games each against divisional opponents, one game against each team in two other divisions, and two conference games determined by last year’s order of finish. The only new information in the “release” included the dates and times of each game. That’s exciting?

Burrito Girl, sports are the original reality TV shows.
On Tuesday night, the Nachoman’s wife and sidekick Burrito Girl tried to tempt the Nachoman away from watching the Brewers-Reds game. She noted that several “much better” shows might be on, and I may want to switch to watch one of them with her. I thought she was just making up silly-sounding show names, but apparently she was serious about all but one.

So, which of the following Burrito Girl suggestions is NOT an actual reality show:

The Biggest Loser
My Big Fat Obnoxious Fiance
The Littlest Groom.
Who Wants to Marry a Deformed Millionaire

The answer:
The Biggest Loser is about a bunch of fat people who compete to lose weight.[4]

In My Big Fat Obnoxious Fiance, a young woman torments her poor parents by bringing home an over-the-top oaf and introducing him as her fiancé. How obnoxious.

The Littlest Groom made Burrito Girl snort in glee. In this short-lived 2005 FOX reality special, a “little man” (i.e. a dwarf, midget, or whatever your PC term of choice may be) lives with six women for two days before choosing one of them to be his bride. Of the women, three are also dwarfs, while three are normal-sized. (Note that I truly have no intent to offend any person of shortness here, unless said person submitted him- or her-self to a FOX reality show in which he or she made a nuptial decision based on two days of camera-fueled melodrama.)

On one hand, TLG seemed to be designed to generate controversy, and thus publicity. In searching for information about the show, Burrito Girl found the requisite statement from dwarf rights organizations[5] about whether or not this show was offensive. Fox was successful in that respect… but they were decidedly unsuccessful in attracting viewers. The show did not have much shelf life.

Problem is, Burrito Girl asked the same question as did I, as did the students at my dinner table tonight: Whom did The Littlest Groom choose? Did he choose a little woman or a big woman? And did they actually marry? Did they stay together? Burrito Girl could not find out the answer to these questions, despite close to an hour of intense internet searching. The good news was that her quest kept her away from the remote control, allowing me to watch the Reds victory in relative peace. The bad news is, we still don’t know who ended up being the Littlest Bride. Anyone with information, please post a comment.

Who Wants to Marry a Deformed Millionaire
… does not exist. Sorry.

He won’t replace Skip Carey, but he ain’t bad
Sunday afternoon, Nationals at Braves. I had the pleasure of listening to Rob Dibble on MASN (Mid Atlantic Sports Network, the cable home of the Gnats). Pleasure, you say? I never used to like Mr. Dibble on ESPN’s Baseball Tonight… but I enjoyed his commentary during this particular game. He and his partner included three gems in their broadcast.

First of all, Dibble gave some insight that I hadn’t thought of. He noted that you shouldn’t ask an infielder how his pitcher looked in an outing. Why not? Because the infielders should always be watching the batters, not the pitchers. Dibble suggested that an infielder who tracks the pitch all the way to the bat will get a slower jump on the ball than an infielder who keeps his eyes locked on the hitter. Now, I have no idea whether Mr. Dibble is correct in his assertion – I will have to ask some folks who know baseball better than I. But it was an intriguing thought.

Next, he noted how Jair Jurrjens, a native of the Netherlands Antilles, became interested in baseball: because he watched countryman Andruw Jones. (Mr. Dibble presumably based this fact on personal communication with Mr. Jurrjens. He did not cite any other source.)

Then Dibble saw a bunch of guys in bunny suits hopping and romping around Turner Field on that Easter Sunday afternoon. His comments convinced the production crew to show the event. “The Bunny Hop Parade is in progress,” said Dibble. “Those are grown men.”

Mr. Brave? No, “Homer.”
The Braves have a mascot, don’t you know. “Homer” looks exactly like Mr. Red, or Mr. Met: person in baseball jersey with giant baseball head. The Nachoman says, unless your mascot is special and unique (see Phanatic, Phillie, or Chicken, San Diego), then your team neither needs nor wants a mascot. Homer isn’t as bad as Steely McBeam, but it’s a near thing.

On Sunday in Atlanta the song was performed by two out of tune Shriners. Seriously.
Give me “America the Beautiful” any day. Or “My Old Kentucky Home.” The Nachoman hereby goes on record as hating “God Bless America.” Not only is it a bad, melodramatic song… it also prolongs baseball games at which it is played. (Not to mention, if you’re at a Yankees game you must respect the song as the Soviets respected the hammer and sickle. At least that’s what a fan and the NYCLU claim in a lawsuit.)

Kudos to SNY for good coverage of a bad game
I did not enjoy Thursday’s Padres-Mets game, primarily because starting pitchers John Maine and Jake Peavy might as well have just told the umpire to add three balls to each batter’s count to get them over with. But I do want to praise Sportschannel New York for their outstanding coverage. They provided a game-focused broadcast without too many extraneous asides. Their one major side-story was to take a camera through the visitors’ bullpen at Citi Field. It’s not possible to watch the game from the bullpen… if you can see through three chain-link fences, then you get a view of the right fielder and that’s it – everything else is blocked by opaque ads on the outfield fence. (The poor view led one of the Pads relievers to take a seat in the stands for the first five innings on Tuesday.)

Best of all, SNY kept their audience informed of activity in both teams’ bullpens. Since I was working for STATS, INC Thursday night, and since one of my jobs is to indicate who is warming up in the bullpen, I was most appreciative of SNY’s efforts.

Next Week…
… the Nachoman probably prattles on about the Sausage Race again. I mean, the dang Milwaukee Sausages have appeared in virtually every column the Nachoman has ever written, dating back to this column’s 2005 origins. You can even do a successful google search for “Nachoman Sausage Race” Enough already, right?

Perhaps I’ll stop prattling when someone manages to get me into the Polish Sausage costume for a real live Miller Park race. That is the Nachoman’s lifelong dream.

NM

[1] And no, the Nachoman emphatically does NOT find this erotic. Amusing yes, erotic no. Thank you.
[2] Or I won’t, because I gave up cheese last week. I really, really need a “cheesaholic’s anonymous”-style meeting… “Hello, my name is Greg, and it has been three days since I last ate cheese. Every day is still a struggle. I need your support.”
[3] Some of the announcers’ pontifications remind me of the apocryphal question posed to Super Bowl MVP Doug Williams: “How long have you been a black quarterback?”
[4] Possibly by giving up cheese. I am sad for them.
[5] Author Terry Pratchett calls such a group the Campaign for Equal Heights

Friday's quiz while you wait for Friday's Post

2009-04-17T09:09:00.003-04:00

The Nachoman will post this afternoon. In the meantime, I give you the Nachoman Friday Quiz.

Which of Burrito Girl's suggestions is NOT an actual reality show:

(A) The Biggest Loser
(B) My Big Fat Obnoxious Fiance
(C) The Littlest Groom.
(D) Who Wants to Marry a Deformed Millionaire

The answer is forthcoming... in Friday's episode of Nachoman's Baseball.

Stats vs. Gut -- The Ribbie Reporter replies

2009-04-10T20:02:00.003-04:00

As you'll see from our earlier post, the Nachoman and I are beginning a conversation on stats vs. gut feelings. I got the idea from this after Kansas City Manager Trey Hillman let home run prone Kyle Farnsworth face Jim Thome, even though Thome hits lots of home runs and has always had his way with righties like Farnsworth. In contrast, Thome is quite pedestrian against lefty pitchers. I agree with the Nachoman that it's not that useful to rely on limited sample sizes -- looking at how one pitcher as done against a batter during the last few years, for example. Twenty at bats simply don't give us enough information. That's a favorite strategy of Tony LaRussa; he likes to know how each of his batters has done against every pitcher on the opposing team, and vice versa. I don't think that's very useful.
I do strongly believe, however, in looking at platoon splits. That brings us back to Mr. Thome. In his career, Thome has hit .296/.431/.620 (AVG/OBP/SLUG) against RHP – against lefties, he has hit .240/.342/.442. Can you tell the difference? In that case, stats clearly show that it's a much better decision to send in a lefty to face Mr. Thome. It was the bottom of the 8th, Royals up one. Thome was hitting with two outs and two on. If you get him out, you have a good chance to win the game. If he gets a hit, you start fresh (if he gets a homer, as he did, you lose the game).
Yes, it's important to consider how hot or cold a pitcher is. Hillman decided in this case that Farnsworth was "hot" because he was "throwing strikes." Unfortunately, he was also throwing hittable strikes. And again, even if a lefty is cold, his strikes -- across Thome's long career -- have given the slugger more trouble than a lefty's strikes. See what I'm saying?
Finally, I want to address the Nachoman's "Dandelion effect." He argues that a defense will be sluggish after having to stand around and wait for the pitching change. I think that's nonsense. Sure, defensive lapses may happen on occasion after a pitching change. However, they also happen during the normal flow of the game, and I don't think they're more common after mid-inning pitching changes. Major League players are paid millions to pay attention and field their positions. Most of them know that if they stop fielding somebody else will get their spot (that is, unless the awful fielder can hit .300 and have 30+ homers a year... then all defensive lapses are excused).
Stats can teach manager a lot -- it can even teach them to take it easy and not try to do too much. If Hillman wants to completely ignore stats and manage with his gut, I can't stop him. But I am convinced he'll be hurting his team in the long-run.

The return of baseball made me able to tolerate Joe Morgan

2009-04-10T09:18:00.004-04:00

Two days every year inspire tremendous, through often unwarranted, optimism throughout the USA, says Woodberry history professor and Nationals fan Fred Jordan: the first day of school, and baseball’s opening day. The Nachoman has not felt optimistic about a professional sports season since 1991. See, I’m a Reds and Bengals fan – the past two decades have crushed the spirit of Cincinnatians. That said, I’m quite optimistic about the 2009 Bengals. They just signed Tank Johnson, who will be able to supply the weapons to break the team out of jail in time for training camp.

Nevertheless, I do enjoy basking in the warm glow[1] of the new baseball season. Opening night even made Joe Morgan tolerable. Or maybe that was Steve Phillips. Either way, I got through an entire Sunday Night Baseball game on ESPN2 without hitting the mute button.

Do you think our sports fan ancestors could ever have foreseen this?
Sunday night, baseball took a backseat to women’s basketball – the womens’ final four played on ESPN uno, while the national pastime’s season opener got bumped to the deuce.

Speaking of women’s basketball
The highlight packages on the worldwide leader were, as always, cross-promotional – they showed women’s basketball highlights all night. The video editing could not help but draw the viewer’s eye to the specially painted floor for the final four, part of which is shown in the picture here. Is the sweeping arc through the scorer’s table from baseline to baseline not the most hideous basketball-related decorative attempt you have ever seen?[2]

Women’s complaints aside, I’ve been pleased with the men’s tournament floor designs, which the NCAA has standardized this year to a simple, understated blue outline and center circle, with a teensy logo allowed for the host site.

Oh, yeah, the Sunday night game.
The Braves sent Derek Lowe to fight[3] Brett Myers. Both pitchers are considered good but not top-of-the-line starters, as evidenced by Yahoo fantasy leagues. Mr. Myers is owned by 83% of Yahoo teams, while Derek Lowe is on 89% of teams. This wisdom-of-crowds reasoning places Mr. Lowe as about the 30th best starting pitcher in the majors, with Myers about 35th.

On this day, Mr. Lowe proved superior – he pitched eight gorgeous innings, walking none and giving up only two hits. And, one of the hits came after a miscommunication between Jeff Francoeur and Kelly Johnson caused a foul fly ball to drop off of Mr. Francoeur’s glove. (ESPN commentators actually offered insightful and accurate analysis of the miscue.) Mr. Myers, on the other hand, seemed to be throwing batting practice for the first few innings. He allowed three homers, a double, and two singles. He didn’t really fool anyone on the night, but to his credit lasted six innings before exiting.

Much credit should be given to the Philly bullpen, who allowed nothing, not even a hit, over three innings of work. Even though they were losing 4-0, they kept the game close to set the stage for the inevitable comeback against the purported “closer.”

Mike Gonzalez, the Braves’ Anointed One, entered to pitch the ninth. The contrast between him and Mr. Lowe was immediately apparent. Mr. Lowe had been pitching confidently, sacrificing velocity for movement, all night. It looked like Mr. Lowe barely worked up a sweat in some innings, making Phils hitters ground out to shortstop on wicked sliders. On the other hand, Mr. Gonzalez overthrew his fastball at least once per hitter – by “overthrew” I mean that he reared back and threw as hard as he could, disregarding the fact that the catcher reached above the batter’s head to catch the ball. The radar gun might have looked good, but the two hits and a walk that Mr. Gonzalez produced threatened to unravel Lowe’s brilliant night.

Then, Gonzalez got lucky. Ryan Howard chased a pitch outside, and struck out on a 3-2 pitch. During his at-bat he swung right through a few sliders. Then Raul Ibanez struck out swinging, also on a 3-2 pitch. Wipe your brows, Braves fans, you won… though it appears that the bullpen has picked up right where it left off last year.

Woah, that Nachoman, he is prescient
Take a look, if you dare, at the box score from Wednesday’s Braves-Phils contest. Of the SIX walks in the inning, FOUR of them forced in a run. This excellent bullpen work blew a 10-3 lead, costing Javier Vazquez and the Electric Marshmallows (the Nachoman’s fantasy team) the win. Go Braves.

Can we agree that hitters are capable of garnering hits on good pitches?
Monday afternoon, Pirate Nyjer Morgan’s bases loaded single tied the game against the Cardinals. Mr. Morgan hit a wicked Trever Miller slider, which started over the plate and broke right onto the outside corner. Of course, the analyst for Fox Sports Midwest noted twice how the pitch “caught too much of the plate” and how Mr. Miller should have thrown it farther outside. I disagree – look at the replay. The hitter could have been sitting on the slider; or perhaps he adjusted very well to the off-speed stuff. Either way, Morgan did a tremendous job keeping his head down on the ball, waiting on the slow pitch, and driving the ball to the opposite field.

I’ll spare you the rant about how Trever Miller gets stuck with the blown save, while Josh Kinney, who walked the pitcher to load the bases in the first place, earns a “hold.”

Don’t always blame the refs when the fouls are out of balance
Imagine that you’re at a basketball game where the first five fouls of the game are whistled on the same team. (That happened, in fact, in Monday’s national championship contest.) Certainly you can expect that the coach on the short end of the calls will be complaining incessantly to the officials. And if the home team has been called for all these fouls, the crowd will mercilessly attack the refs with their catcalls. How could any officiating crew be so blatant in their favoritism?

The referee will often explain to the offended coach that his team is playing a more physical style of play than the opponent, and so might expect to be on the bad end of the foul count. Sure, physical teams should expect more foul calls. But a five-foul discrepancy at the beginning of a game should be somewhat common, even if the teams are equally likely to foul – no bias is necessary.

Just look at the numbers. Let the probability of a foul on each team be 1/2. Then, the probability of one of the teams committing the first five fouls is 1/16. In a typical 30-35 game college season, then, a team should expect to play two games or so in which the same team gets called for five fouls in a row to start the game. And, random chance dictates that in 1/32 of a team’s games, or about once per season, one team should rack up the first SIX calls.

How could there be a delay in Toronto? It’s a DOME.
Why was a game delayed in Toronto on Monday night? The mlb website didn’t say, so El Molé and I engaged in wanton, irresponsible speculation. I recalled my only visit to Skydome, when the game was delayed for 45 minutes due to fog and rain – it took that long to close the 1980s vintage roof. El Molé had more entertaining ideas, suggesting a plague of frogs or a hot dog vendor strike.

Turned out, it was a plague of Beer Cups
Skydome[4] has been declared an alcohol free zone for three games as punishment for the actual goings-on on Monday, when drunken fans threw beer cups at players. Apparently this is not the first time that Skydome fans have become extra-rowdy -- a brawl in the upper deck led to a similar ban last year, according to USA Today.

While I heartily agree with the Ontario Alcohol and Gaming Commission’s[5] decision, a close reading of the article unearths a worrying decision by the AGC. Last year, after the brawl, alcohol was banned only in the upper deck. That smacks of classism to me… we can’t trust the rubes chugging beer in the cheap seats, but the upstanding rich folks behind the plate can still sip their martinis, right, Ontario?

Credit to Fox Sports Milwaukee

Thursday night, 9th inning in San Francisco, Giants pitcher Joe Martinez took a direct hit on his temple off of a line drive. Fox Sports announcers were right on top of the call, reacting to the injury but still noting that the ball, which had ricocheted into foul territory, was still in play. They noted that batter Mike Cameron was visibly disturbed by what his hit had wrought; furthermore, the broadcasters reminded the audience of the brutal head injury that Mr. Cameron himself had suffered in a collision last year at Shea Stadium. After the play was over, the cameras of course focused on Mr. Martinez in his attempt to walk off the field, and then the trainer’s ministrations on the field. But, most crucially, when it became clear that Mr. Martinez was bleeding profusely from his temple, the camera angle changed immediately. From then on, the only visual shown of Mr. Martinez was from behind, where his somewhat gruesome injury was not visible. Thank you. If I wanted to watch gore, I would be in the living room watching Burrito Girl’s shows.

Quit yer thinking, just throw the dang ball
The most common fault of a pitcher – at any level of baseball, from 8th grade to the majors – is to give hitters too much credit. Yes, if your name is Greg Maddux, and you can execute any pitch in anyone’s repertoire to perfection, then you should think carefully, read scouting reports, and fool the hitter with pinpoint control. If you are anyone else, just hit the catcher’s glove. If your stuff is good, you’ll be successful.[6]

I enjoyed the mlb.com writeup of Tuesday’s Snakes-Rox game. Apparently Rockies pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez got into some trouble trying to paint corners with his expansive variety of pitches, catcher Chris Iannetta told him to stop thinking and just throw his best fastball. It worked.

How does a newspaper reporter describe arm strength?
The Denver Post article about Tuesday’s game noted the incredible arm strength of Mr. Jimenez. This begs the question, what is the basis for comparison for “arm strength?” In Colorado, the answer should be obvious: The Post risked heresy by comparing Mr. Jimenez’s arm to that of noted car dealership maven John Elway.

That led me to wonder about industry standards. The “kilogram” is the unit of mass. In order to standardize the amount of mass that defines the kilogram, the International Bureau of Weights and Measures maintains a platinum-iridium kilogram in a vault in France. If anyone wants to know what a kilogram is, all they have to do is get The Kilogram out of the vault. In principle.

So:

Does the National Institute of Standards and Technology – headquartered in Boulder, proudly supplying “industry, academia, government, and other users with over 1300 reference materials of the highest quality and metrological value” according to their website – have, in an evacuated vault, the international basis for unit of arm strength? Is this basis, in fact, John Elway’s disembodied arm? Can we refer to Mr. Jimenez as having 0.96 elways, while Jamie Moyer has merely 0.12 elways?

Yes we can. The “elway” is now this column’s standard unit of arm strength. I encourage readers to lobby congress to accept the elway as the official national standard as well.

Next week
The Nachoman discusses the frustrating case of Reds prospect Homer Bailey, whose arm strength of 95 elways but mental aptitude of only 0.38 madduxes has led him to spend yet another opening day in the minors.

[1] Literally… it’s from the 42” plasma screen.
[2] No, it’s not. Check out the giant guitar on the floor at last year’s women’s final four.
[3] Not literally fight – Mr. Myers only delivers actual punches to his wife, as evidenced by his 2006 domestic assault arrest.
[4] Yes, I know it’s called “Rogers Centre,” complete with the Queen’s spelling of “Centre.” To me, it will always be “Skydome.” And “Enron Field.” And “Byzantium.” Humph.
[5] Um, why alcohol and gaming, together? You don’t have to gamble to drink booze, and you don’t have to booze to gamble (though I’ll bet it helps). This makes as much sense as the American combination of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms. And what do these government organizations say about culture? Canadians get drunk so they can throw their money away, but Americans get drunk so they can shoot people? Draw your own conclusions.
[6] And if your stuff isn’t good, then all the fancy-pants slurves and screwballs in the world ain’t gonna help, especially if you keep throwing them out of the strike zone.

The Ribbie Reporter and Nachoman discuss stats vs. gut feelings

2009-04-09T11:20:00.007-04:00

In the aftermath of Kansas City's Opening Day debacle, when home run prone righty Kyle Farnsworth was left in to face Jim Thome, who kills righties and hits lots of homers but is much less effective against lefties, I started thinking about the great divide between stats vs. gut feelings when you manage. I asked the Nachoman: what did he think? You'll find his answer below, and I'll post a rebuttal soon. We hope to continue this conversation over the next few weeks. --The Ribbie Reporter

The Nachoman holds forth: You'll find me right in the middle. I believe in stats. But I also believe they're most useful in the GM office, not the dugout. Tony La Russa famously has data for every batter vs. every pitcher that he uses for in-game managerial decisions. I would suggest that small sample-size data like batter-v-pitcher matchups are not useful. Let's say David Freese is 1-15 against the opposing reliever, while Brian Barden is 4-11. It sure seems like TLR should pinch hit with Barden, right? But that discounts other issues. Is one of them hot? Is one of them better in a pinch hitting role? In the clutch? What about the lefty-righty split? Who's more useful later in the game defensively? What if the game goes extra innings, which hitter do we want to burn now?

Sure, one can quantify each of the above issues I raised. Problem is, much of that small sample-size data might be contradictory. (That is, maybe Barden overall hits worse against righthanders, but he's 4-11 against this guy in particular.) And how can a manager process all of that data to make a stat-based decision within a few seconds during the game? Weighing all of these options on the spur of the moment and making an educated decision is what you refer to as "managing by feel."

I get upset with managers who assign more significance to statistics than can be properly inferred. For example, let's say your right-handed middle reliever has sailed through 1.2 innings giving up only one bloop hit and a stolen base. Now there are two outs in the eighth inning with a man on second in a tight game. Here comes a left-handed hitter who hits better against right handers; the current reliever gives up a higher average to lefties. Bring in the LOOGY, right? That's what virtually every manager today would do. I wouldn't. Not unless the platoon advantage is enormous, not unless the upcoming hitter is an elite run producer, and not unless I have absolute faith in my LOOGY.

I'd rather have the current pitcher who's in a groove than the cold, nervous guy from the bullpen. How many times have you seen this exact situation, where the LOOGY walks the lefthanded hitter? Or goes 3-1 and gives up a hard hit ball? You see, usually a guy is a middle reliever for a reason, that reason being he's not good enough to start or close. If the LOOGY were really that much of a better pitcher, he wouldn't be a LOOGY. Use the guy who's already proven he can get the opponent's hitters out.

In the case above, we can certainly quantify lefty-righty splits. Can we quantify how many times a reliever has fallen behind the first hitter he faces? Probably, but that's not generally an easy to find stat. Can we quantify the effect on the defense, who is forced to pick dandelions for five minutes while the manager goes to the mound twice, the LOOGY walks in, warms up, and then throws one pitch per minute?

I would suggest that in the heat of battle, for any given pitcher-batter confrontation, there are too many variables involved to make a truly stat-based managerial decision. (Sure enough, Baseball Prospectus has suggested that the best managers are those who do nothing strategically -- they play their studs, they DON'T bunt or hit-and-run.) Managing by feel is, I think, the only possible way to manage. The difference between Grady Little and Terry Francona is primarily the talent surrounding them, and partly the better feel for the game possessed by Mr. Francona.

Now, this all changes if we're talking GENERAL managing. Statistics over the course of a season or a carreer can meaningfully inform personnel decisions. But that's a different issue.

Ribbie Reporter -- You be the manager

2009-04-07T23:46:00.003-04:00

Opening Day, Take II. Today is going to be a participatory blog post, where you get to pretend to be a real live manager (in this case Royals manager Trey Hillman).

Let's set the scene, shall we? Bottom of the 8th, Royals leading 2-1 in Chicago over the White Sox. Ace Gil Meche has turned in a fine start, but is tiring and is still working up to mid-season endurance. So you, dear manager, turn to new reliever Kyle Farnsworth, even though he gives up homers at an alarming rate (15 in 60 innings last year, a rate of 2.3 per 9 innings). The Sox get a bunt single. Then there's a flyout. Then a hit and run single, followed by another fly out. So there are first and third, two outs, your team up by one, Jim Thome coming to the plate.

Now, let's review a few pertinent stats: Mr. Thome has hit 542 home runs in his career, 42 of them against KC (by far the most he's hit against any team). Mr. Thome is a lefty, and he has a career OPS (on-base % + slugging %) of 1.052 against righties like Farnsworth. Against lefties it's a much more modest .788 (THIS IS A HUGE DIFFERENCE). Farnsworth's career numbers also show that he's much better against righties than lefties.

Now here's where we participate. As manager, you have a few options:
A) Bring in lefty Ron Mahay to face Thome. Mahay is not much better against lefties than righties, but remember Thome drops off significantly against lefties. Mahay also gives up far fewer homers than Farnsworth.
B) Bring in righty closer Joakim Soria, who held lefties to a .167!!! batting average last year. He's your best reliever, and getting the out here goes a long way to sealing the game. Also, a four out save won't make his arm fall off, and he should be fresh since it's opening day.
C) Leave in Farnsworth and take your chances.

Which would you choose? A, B or C? And which do you think the real manager chose?

Ribbie Reporter -- OPENING DAY

2009-04-06T12:50:00.003-04:00

Sadly the Royals and White Sox have been rained out today, but I did catch part of the Phillies-Braves opener last night.

Let's just say that Derek Lowe picked up the first Nachoman Quality Start (NQS) of the year with no problem: 8 shutout innings, 2 hits, 0 walks, 4 Ks and 13 groundball outs behind the sinker.
Baseball really is a simple game when you throw a devastating sinker for strikes and just let the World Champions pound the ball into the infield over and over.
And it gets even simpler when you get three home runs in the first two innings to back you up, including a shot from a rookie making his first MLB at bat.

Follow-up on yesterday's "silly timeout" post:

2009-03-21T10:07:00.003-04:00

The Wisconsin-Florida State game was on way too late for your humble Nachoman. But I read this from Deadspin's Live Blog (emphasis added):

0:07 - Douglas bricks a dagger 3. Badgers get the rebound and break the other way, Bohannon jacks up a 3 but Bo called a timeout. The shot went in too!!! Ouch. Badgers are down one with the ball. I like their chances. It could go to anyone on this play.

Good thing Wisconsin won, eh, Bo Ryan? Nonetheless, you called a bonehead timeout. Trust your players.

Why the timeout bugaboo? Have sports pundits never played basketball before?

2009-03-20T21:46:00.006-04:00

The Nachoman is getting more and more weary of basketball observers demanding that coaches call timeouts.

The trend started innocently enough (or not, depending on your point of view) with Dick Vitale shouting “get a TO, baby!” whenever a team made a 10-15 point run. Dicky, a former coach, was usually on the money with his pronouncements. Often, an extended run can be indicative of an underlying issue that the coach can correct by stopping play. Perhaps his team is gassed and needs a break. Perhaps he needs to sub back in his best player. Perhaps he had underestimated a player on the opposing team, and a brief discussion of how to adjust the defensive or offensive scheme might stop the bleeding. In any case, Dicky V knew what he was screaming about.

Now, though, I hear broadcasters call for timeouts in every conceivable situation, especially near the end of games. Then, if the coach chooses NOT to call the timeout, I hear criticism, as if the coach were derelict in his duty. I even saw written criticism of Roy Williams, of all people, for failing to use timeouts. Forget the probability that Mr. Williams knows a wee bit more about basketball than a deadspin editor; his proven competence and his national championship should earn him some benefit of the doubt when it comes to subtle points of his game management. I argue that a good coach should NOT be calling timeout much, even at the end of games.

Critical commentators seem to misunderstand the purpose of the basketball timeout. I see two types of timeouts: the tactical, and the strategic. By “tactical,” I mean spur-of-the-moment timeouts based on the immediate game situation: for example, a timeout to avoid a 5-second call, or to preserve possession as a player falls out of bounds. A “strategic” timeout, on the other hand, is usually called by the coach as a calculate move to affect the progress of the game. The Dicky V timeouts described above are all strategic timeouts.

I propose that virtually all tactical timeouts are worthwhile. Is it worth a timeout to maintain possession, and possibly to prevent an opponent’s fast break at the same time? Certainly – that could be a two to five point swing! I’d spend a timeout to gain that many points any day.

Are strategic timeouts useful? They must be measured against the 2-5 point value of a tactical timeout. The Dicky V midgame timeouts, if they stop an opponent’s run, certainly meet the standard. But, what about the timeouts proposed by pundits?

Near the end of the game, a good strategic timeout might be called after a made basket to set up a press, or to make defense/offense substitutions. That’s pretty much it.

Pundits, though, usually give other, ridiculous purposes for a timeout. Usually they expect the coach to “set up” a shot, or to prepare the team to run a set play.[1] What, you didn’t ever practice the shot or the play you want? Why not? What the heck have you been doing in practice, then? If the coach is diagramming a play the team has never seen before, most likely the coach hasn’t been using his practice time wisely.

I especially laugh with scorn at the idea that a coach can magically create a basket on the possession immediately following a timeout. Commentators imply that by listening to a coach’s wisdom for 30-6o seconds, the offensive team has become more likely to score, presumably because the coach “set up” the offense. Has it ever occurred to anyone that the defensive coach likewise had a chance to “set up” the defense?

I’ve witnessed the extremes of the “setting up a last-second shot” silliness, and I’ve never heard an announcer take the coach to task for his mismanagemement.[2] In the last year, I’ve seen:

* With three seconds left, a player starts a reasonably open drive to the basket for the winning shot… but the coach calls timeout to “set up” what becomes a contested fallaway 3 pointer.

* With a few seconds left, down by 1, a player quickly inbounds after a missed basket, catching the opponents off guard, and connects with a streaking teammate for the winning layup… except the coach called timeout to “set up” a play from 94 feet away.

* With 20 seconds left, a coach calls timeout to set up the last shot… which consists of four players backing up until they’re practically out of bounds, while the fifth guy dribbles into a double team and throws up a prayer.[3]

In the same timeframe, I’ve not seen a single last-second shot set up during a timeout that worked. Yeah, there was that Laettner-esque Minnesota craziness in last year’s big 10 tournament, when Tubby Smith seemed to have designed a full-court game winning play. But it turned out that the actual play went nothing like Tubby had drawn it up.

What started the Nachoman on this rant? Deadspin’s Rick Chandler interviewed Keith Smart, the Indiana player whose 15-foot jumper beat Syracuse back in 1987. (Brent Musburger’s excellent call: “Smart… takes the shot…”)

Chandler: “The thing I remember most about it was that Knight didn't call a time out before the play. Not that that was unusual

Smart: People say, well you guys didn't call a time out. But that was Knight. We knew what to do in different situations; that all came out in practice. As a coach now I see that sometimes when you call a time out and draw up a play, the player only sees what you show him and doesn't take what the defense is giving. That shot came out of the motion offense, and that's an offense where you learn to take what the defense gives you. Playing at Indiana and playing for coach Knight has given me a tremendous base for basketball.

On the other end of the famous NCAA non-timeouts, I wonder how many timeouts Michigan coach Steve Fisher wasted in the 1993 title game, leading to Chris Webber being charged with a technical for calling an excess timeout. No one has ever asked that question that I know of. Is it possible that, if Mr. Fisher had a more Knight- or Williams- like attitude toward timeouts, Webber might have called a useful tactical timeout, and the team might have scored to win?

NM

[1] Or, they want the coach to “ice the shooter.” Do we have any evidence that icing the shooter even works?

[2] Have you EVER heard an announcer correctly criticize a coach for blatant game mismanagement? For example, if a player gets a technical, his selfishness has hurt his team; if a coach gets a technical, he’s calculating that he can inspire his team to better play. No one else sees a ridiculous double standard?

[3] … and then bitches to the ref that he was fouled. I call this the NBA offense.

Which of the following is not based on a true story?

2009-03-15T13:14:00.004-04:00

(A) Ox suspended for mustache theft

(B) Inmate breaks out of jail, steals cigarettes, breaks back in

(D) Grow tomatoes upside-down without backbreaking work!

(A) True Story: At the Utah State / New Mexico State basketball game in the WAC semifinals, a (presumably) drunken fan offered USU mascot “Big Blue” $100 for the mustache of NMSU mascot “Pistol Pete.” Mr. Blue stole the mustache, and got throttled for his efforts. Much public gnashing of teeth followed, the large blue ox was banishéd from the tournament final, and the ill-gotten $100 was donated to a local charity. But, I have a feeling that Big Blue won’t have to buy his own milk for a while at Utah bars.

You can read the Associated Press story here, and marvel that the spokesbeings for both schools were named “Tiffany.”

(B) True Story: In Georgia,* a 25 year old inmate, in the pokey on drug charges, broke out of jail through an unlocked door. He burgled a local convenience store, taking 14 packs of cigarettes, and then returned to prison. He was arrested upon arriving back at jail. (How is it possible to arrest someone who is trying to get into jail?)

The best version of the story – just 74 words long, with a pithy comment appended – can be read here via Fox News.

(C) True Story, or at least true enough for advertising purposes. During some basketball game or other Burrito Girl and I saw a commercial for an upside-down vegetable grower. You can take a look at the infomercial at hangingtomato.com. The claim is that by watering and feeding the plant directly on the roots, the plant will “explode” downward and fruit without “backbreaking work.” If you look at the pictures, though, you’ll notice that someone has carefully swept up all of the detritus that fell out of the planter onto the ground.

I was actually going to buy one for the NachoGrandma, who extols the virtues of home grown tomatoes despite the fact that she has actually, personally harvested precisely three tomatoes in the past three decades. The device would allow her to grow a tomato plant on her second story balcony. However, the actual price is not just $20, but $36, when shipping costs are included. Too rich for my blood.

(D) No way in heck. Our trip to Florida must have coincided with Bike Week, as motocyclists were converging on Daytona Beach from all directions. Most of these bikers were helmetless; many consisted of a man driving with a woman hanging on behind him. The USA may have sent a man to the moon, may have a black president and a female secretary of state, but I will not truly believe in social progress until I see a man hanging on behind a woman on a motorcycle.

Duke - Carolina
El Molé says that if Duke wins the ACC championship to tie Carolina for the most conference titles in history, “Duke’s fans will become insufferable.” That’s funny, the way he talks about Duke fans, they reached that stage long ago. (“How would we tell?” El Molé commented a moment after his statement sunk in.)

I’m moderately neutral, but leaning toward UNC, in this heated rivalry. Why leaning toward Carolina? Aside from the fact that El Molé wouldn’t consent to appearing in this column if I leaned the other way? Well, it is MUCH more fun to tweak a Duke fan than a Carolina fan.

I briefly mentioned the two missed traveling calls on Duke a few weeks ago, video of which made all the sports blogs, to Duke alumnus and squash afficianado Bill Robertson. He went on a rant, with footnotes, about how Duke does not actually get more than their share of calls. He went on to wonder why people keep thinking that Duke is favored by the refs.

Well, fellow squasher Paul Deigl answered that one for us… “Very few people REALLY believe that Duke gets an unfair advantage. But we love watching the Duke folks get so defensive!”

Hey, ESPN, I pay for high definition and a large television for a reason.
In one of the worst gimicks ever to grace sports coverage, ESPN decided during an ACC tournament game to split the screen. On the right side, we saw the NC State coach squatting, gesticulating, and generally exhorting his charges. On the left, shrunk to about 1/4 the screen, we saw the actual basketball game going on.

My issue goes even beyond my tired old complaint to broadcast networks to just show the dang game. (The Nachoman thinks that in their quest for sports emmys and simmilar awards, TV producers ignore their primary mission of game coverage to show off how awesome the TV producer can be.) Not only did ESPN break their covenant with their audience (again), they did so to show a coach's antics. A separate Nachoman thesis states that brilliant coaching is far rarer than the sports media would have us believe. And, a good coach can simply let his players play on game day -- his players should be so well trained that gesticulation and exhortation are unnecessary! Yet, ESPN contributed to the :cult of the coach" by showing coaches' antics as if they were important. No, folks, the game is about the players, not the coaches. Maybe if university trustees recognized this fact then Pete Caroll and Jim Calhoun might be making closer to my salary, and about 1000 more poor but smart folks would be attending USC and UConn.

Next week:

I get El Molé and Bill Robertson together to debate the quality of coach K’s hairpiece.

*Of course. Don’t all humorous prison stories take place in the Southeast, where it’s additionally considered appropriate to sing a country song about the event?

Spring training for the Nachoboy

2009-03-09T15:19:00.003-04:00

Yesterday marked our first, and probably last, excursion to a Cardinals spring training game. Three years ago, my wife and sidekick Burrito Girl proposed heading to Florida for spring break. I suggested we head to Jupiter, located just north of the Miami-Lauderdale-West Palm Beach megalopolis, for a couple of reasons: (1) Jupiter is relatively close to the Nachoman’s former haunt of Boca Raton, and (2) Jupiter is the spring home of two major league teams, the Cardinals and the Marlins. The idea was, with two teams in town, I’d be able to see a game every day if I wanted to, with or without the Nachoboy, while Burrito Girl got to stay on the beach as she wished. The vacation was a success; we’ve been back to Jupiter three times now.

I no longer go to major league baseball games very often, because of the enormous financial and time commitment necessary nowadays. I think I’ve been to two games in the past decade. But back in the day, when I lived a few miles from Riverfront Stadium, I might decide to go to a game 45 minutes before the first pitch. I’d buy walk-up tickets in the upper deck behind home plate for four bucks. For dinner, I’d buy hot dogs for $1 each.* Total commitment: less than 5 hours and about 7 dollars per person. According to the inflation calculator, that works out to about $13 in today’s money to completely cover attendance at a meaningful game.

At yesterday’s spring training game, my ticket alone for the grass berm in right field cost $15. Hot dogs were $3.50 each. For friggin’ SPRING TRAINING.

Three years ago, those same grass berm tickets were only $8. I took the then-3-year-old Nachoboy a few times, knowing that he would be more interested in roaming around the stadium and eating dippin’ dots ice cream than in watching the game. But that was okay, ‘cause I didn’t care about a preseason game any more than he did. He only lasted about three innings each time, but the combination of the gameday atmosphere, the large number of fans at the game and at our hotel wearing Cardinals jerseys (Nachoboy has recognized ornithological cardinals since he was two), and the baseball he was given by the nice bullpen catcher turned him into a Cards fan.

It’s still nice to be around so many Cardinals fans. But for $15 each plus hot dog and ice cream, it becomes ever more annoying when the boy decides in the fourth inning that it’s too hot outside and he wants to go home.

And this is why I won’t take him to an actual major league game. The cost would be astronomical; traveling to a big-league stadium is no longer trivial for me; and if I’m going to go through the trouble to get to a game, I want to keep a scorecard and pay attention to everything around me. That’s tough to do with a six-year-old along.

So, was this game worth the $62 we spent for three tickets and sundries? Probably not, but consider what we saw. Not just three innings of spring training baseball, which was rather boring – Adam Wainwright works extra-slow with a man on base; the Cardinals defense is beyond poor, as I observed two nominal errors plus two further failed plays that were not officially scored errors.

The big news was the skinny bleached blonde girl in the section next to ours. She asked for and was granted permission to approach the bullpen players from the grass berm area. She handed a scrap of paper to the nearest Cardinal, who smiled, and passed it along the line. Every player trained his eyes on this girl as she walked back to her seat, while the ultimate recipient of the paper earned nudges and smirks from his teammates.

They say you see something new every time you go to a baseball game, and in this case they're right.

*One of only three positive aspects of Marge Schott’s legacy was that she absolutely insisted on capping the price of hot dogs at $1. The 14 year old Nachoman on a limited budget considered even $1 to be somewhat expensive.

Spring Training 2009

2009-03-05T10:42:00.008-05:00

Welcome back, Nachoman! I'm still technically on hiatus, because the Fundamental Thesis of Nachodom states that a baseball writer should primarily discuss baseball games. (Imagine that.) Since actual games don't begin until early April, my hiatus will end then.

Nevertheless, I'll start writing again now. I'm on spring break, which means I only have 50 rather than 500 other things going on. More importantly, the family -- Burrito Girl, the Nachoboy, and I -- is about to embark on an odyssey to Cardinals spring training in Jupiter, FL. We pick up the Nachoboy after school on Friday, drive for two straight days, and we'll be ensconced amongst the Cards fans.

Perhaps the highlight of our trip is that we will be driving past the McDonald's on US 1 in Fort Pierce. This is the very McDonald's made famous by Ms. Latreasa Goodman, who called 911 three times because the restaurant was out of Chicken McNuggets. "This is an emergency," she told the operator. "If I would have known they didn't have McNuggets, I wouldn't have given my money, and now she wants to give me a McDouble, but I don't want one. This is an emergency." Ms. Goodman, of course, was charged with misusing the 911 system.

Clearly, this woman has the brains of a McNugget. Problem is, upon further investigation, we can find out that the McDonald's cashier has merely the brains of the barbecue dipping sauce. A couple of days after the initial news reports, the full story came out: when Ms. Goodman requested her money back because of the lack of McNuggets, the cashier refused. The cashier stated that all sales were final, and that Ms. Goodman had no choice but to order something different. In Ms. Goodman's mind, the McDonald's was stealing her money... so she called 911 like she would on any other thief. McDonald's has subsequently issued a public apology and refunded Ms. Goodman's money.

Perhaps the greatest part of the story is the news coverage. Some sites, like the Palm Beach channel 12 page linked above, treated the story as humorous throughout. Their lede: "You could say she flew into a 'McFury' "

Others tried to maintain a dignified tone throughout their article, but used subtle barbs, as on the Washington, DC Fox News site: "The situation was so dire that she called three times in order to get help."

Then there are the sites who try to fill out their otherwise-straight report with further information, such as the following from the trail end of the article on WPTV.com: "McNuggets, introduced to the McDonald’s national menu in 1983, are sold in more than 100 countries and, unlike the McDouble, are often dunked in barbecue or hot mustard sauce."

And finally, lest you think that Ms. Goodman is a unique resident of the Sunshine State, The Smoking Gun reports: "Last month, a Florida man was arrested after he called 911 to complain about his displeasure with a Burger King combo meal."

With apologies to deadspin commentator Chamomiles Davis: Can we just pretend that this story ends with Ms. Goodman driving a stolen golf cart into a pond and being devoured by an alligator? Then this story about Florida Hijinks would be complete.

And yet it is into McNuggetless Florida that I lead my family. I'll send updates.

Good Decemberween to all...

2008-12-25T08:33:00.004-05:00

During this two-week-long break from teaching and stuff, the Nachoman will be working on the 2010-2011 edition of the Everything Kids Baseball Book. I probably won't be posting much until after the new year.

You see, one of the major changes I'm making to the next edition of the book is to include two chapters of team histories. I challenge you to sum up the entire history of, say, the Boston Red Sox, in just 200-250 words. I've got my work cut out for me.

I promise the Ribbie Reporter that I'll see how my 2008 mlb predictions went down... that won't be a pretty sight. You'll see a post to that effect in another week or two.

For now, enjoy the holidays. Check out some columns from the 2008 baseball season, or from my running diary of the 2008 Harry Wendelstedt Umpire School. Check back soon, when I might start posting regularly again.

-- NM

The post-season wrapup

2008-11-18T20:07:00.002-05:00

It’s the sign of a truly brave (or stupid reporter) when that person is willing to revisit their preseason picks. The Nachoman and I squared off this season with several baseball picks, so let’s see how we did. I finished with 45 points. I was terrible, miserable, awful. I picked the Mariners to win the AL West. But did I beat the Nachoman?

Ribbie Reporter's Baseball Contest Picks:THE BASICS (point value in parentheses)

1. Which six teams will be division winners? (5 each)-- Mets, Cubs, Rockies, Yankees, Indians and Mariners
I got the Cubs right… what in the world was I thinking with the Mariners? 5 points
2. Which two teams will win the wild cards? (5 each)-- Red Sox and Braves
Right on the Sox. Not so much on the Braves. 5 points
3. Which two teams will go to the World Series? (15 each)-- Red Sox and Braves
Nope. 0 points
4. Which team will win the World Series? (30)-- Braves
This is starting to look like a really dumb idea…the Braves weren’t even very good. 0 points
5. Which team will have the best regular-season record? (10)Yankees
I thought this question was asking which team would see its 13-year postseason streak snapped. 0 points
6. Which team will have the worst regular-season record? (10)Orioles
they did finish last in the AL East, but the Nats and Mariners were much worse. 0 points
7. Who will win the AL and NL Cy Young awards? (10 each)AL – Justin Verlander; NL – Johan Santana
Verlander was bad this year. Santana was awesome and finished second in the voting… so no points, but at least I had a decent guess. 0 points
8. Who will win the AL and NL MVP awards? (10 each)AL – Manny Ramirez NL – David Wright
Nobody told me that Manny would freak out, dog it in Boston and end the season in LA. Sorry for missing that one. 0 points9. Who will win the AL and NL Rookie of the Year awards? (10 each)AL – Evan Longoria NL – Johnny Cueto
Right on Longoria. Hooray! 10 points

TEAMS (all remaining questions 10 points each. All questions include regular-season games only.)
10. Which NL team will score the most runs? And which AL team? (5 points each)Tigers and Rockies
The Rangers and Cubs were what we were looking for here, I’m afraid. 0 points
11. Which NL team will give up the most runs? And which AL team? (5 points each)Cardinals and Orioles
Pittsburgh and Texas took the trophies here. 0 points
12. Which team will have the most-improved record, measured in increase in total regular-season victories?Reds
Hmm, maybe I should have picked the Rays. 0 points
13. Which team will suffer the biggest decline, measured in decrease in total regular-season victories?Cardinals
They got better but finished lower in their division. Go figure. 0 points
14. Rank these teams in order of regular-season wins, most to fewest: Nationals, Pirates, Orioles, Devil Rays, Royals.Most-fewest: Nationals, Royals, Devil Rays, Pirates, Orioles
I predicted the Nats (the worst team in Baseball, so be better than the Rays. Sigh.
The real order: Rays, Royals, Orioles, Pirates, Nationals. 5 points for partial credit.

INDIVIDUALS (Asterisk denotes partial credit will be given.)
15. Which manager will be first to no longer be managing his team (whether fired, retired, resigned or otherwise not managing) in 2008? Bob Geren
I should have remembered that Billy Beane doesn’t do dumb stuff like this. Willie Randolph was the person we wanted. 0 points

16. Who will be the highest-salaried player (based on 2008 salary) released or traded?C.C. Sabathia (traded)
This one was Manny, though it’s nice to be right about CC. 0 points
17. Which starting pitcher who’s changed teams (a group that includes Johan Santana and Dontrelle Willis) will earn the most wins?Santana
This one was too easy. 10 points.
18. Will anyone reach the 20-20-20-20 threshold (in doubles, triples, home runs and stolen bases) that Curtis Granderson and Jimmy Rollins reached last year? If yes, who?Rollins will repeat.
Neither one came particuarly close. 0 points.
19. How many home runs will Barry Bonds hit?*0
Another easy one. 10 points.

Nachoman on Hiatus -- check this out, though

2008-11-13T09:40:00.003-05:00

Yes, congratulations to the Phillies, who won the World Series after a succession of 4 hour games that lasted well past the Nachoman's bedtime. I'll probably have some analysis for you eventually, but I don't want to bore you with kvetching about deciding the baseball championship in a nearly-November monsoon.

I'll probably return in January with some football, basketball, and hot stove talk. Perhaps my new neighbor can help me become a hockey fan. But until then, you'll need to satiate yourself on old Nachoman work.

If you're new to Nachoman's baseball, here are some articles I suggest you check out:

* a typical column or two from the 2008 season: http://nachomansbaseball.blogspot.com/2008/05/bullpen-madness-manny-and-ooh-brawl.html

or http://nachomansbaseball.blogspot.com/2008/05/introducing-best-site-on-internet.html

* A post by the Assistant Nachoman for Kansas City Affairs, Ribbie Reporter Jacob Geiger:
http://nachomansbaseball.blogspot.com/2008/04/ribbie-reporter-opening-day-and-more.html

* The Nachoman's discussion of his experience at the Harry Wendelstedt Umpire School... start with the Jan. 2 2008 post and work forward: http://nachomansbaseball.blogspot.com/2008/01/its-opening-day.html

Enjoy. You can email the Nachoman at greg_jacobs@woodberry.org. See you in January.

Report from the Nachoman's hiatus -- the art of bad punning

2008-10-20T07:53:00.003-04:00

Yes, the Nachoman takes his yearly hiatus from early September, when the New Boys arrive at Woodberry*, until the intense fall schedule dies down in November or December. That's why you won't see regular posting for a while.

But that doesn't mean that the Nachoman doesn't keep up with playoff baseball. Congratulations to the Devil Rays and Wife Beaters**, who start the World Series after bedtime on Wednesday night.

This morning, I perused the major internet sports sites for reaction to the Devil Rays victory. Nearly universally, it seems, these sites hire the nerdy "I'm smarter than the teacher" kid from Mrs. Johnson's seventh grade class -- you know, the one whose parents make sure he gets to skip spelling lessons every week to go to Gifted Ed -- to write their headlines. We had:

Amazing Rays
Rays the Roof
Happy Rays
Hip Hip Hoo-Rays
Hoo-Ray

Apparently, just "Rays Win" or "Rays Beat Sox, Series Bound" doesn't cut it any more.

Congrats to the St. Petersburg Times for the simple headline, "We Did It!" Of course, the pronoun "We" implies that the Times, and their readers as well, somehow contributed to the Rays pennant. Nevertheless, I'll take that any day before the onslaught of bad punning.

So enjoy the World Series. Only a few more Rays of baseball left this season.

Groan.

-- NM

* The Nachoman's day job is as a physics teacher and football coach at a boys' boarding school.
** Even though I lived in Philadelphia for four years, I can't root for a team that employs Bret Myers. Kinda like I have to disown the Bengals this year for hiring Chris Henry and the rest of Cell Block E.

Ribbie Reporter: October Baseball

2008-10-01T21:32:00.003-04:00

Ah, it's October 1, meaning that my annual GPA slump has officially begun. My teachers at Woodberry have known about this since 2003, when I spent October camped in Mr. Keating's living room and watching Aaron Boone's Game 7 homer in the ALCS in a silent commons room. Why was it silent? Well, Haynes David and I had sneaked down there after lights out and didn't dare turn on the volume for fear of waking up a prefect or duty master. Mr. Parker was initially worried about my GPA, but after I successfully managed to study for his vocabulary quizzes while watching the Sox play, his concerns abated. Things were better in 2004, when I could just go downstairs to Mr. Keating's apartment and watch the games without ever having to sneak off of the dorm.
There's a new problem this year: for the first time in 21 seasons, I can legally purchase beer, allowing me to combine not one, but TWO American pastimes. And my roommate, Chris, is a slightly obnoxious Red Sox fan, so I need beer if I'm going to watch any games with him.

In any event, I wanted to share this text message exchange I had with my dad during the early innings of the Cubs game (if you didn't know, he holds lingering Cubs loyalty from his childhood days when the KC A's were a joke under Finley. This loyalty grew deeper during his years in Chicago after college).

Ribbie Reporter: You watching the Cubs?
Burnt End Bomber: Nope, going to choir practice.
Ribbie Reporter: But aren't the Cubs a religion too? And one that requires a lot of faith?
Burnt End Bomber: Yeah, but remember when I worshipped there in 1984 Leon Durham burned the church.
Ribbie Reporter: Where does Bartman rank? Prince Of Darkness
Burnt End Bomber: (No response)

Yep... I think that sums up the Cubs for us. We haven't even gotten into the pagan rituals (see Goat, Billy and exploding the Bartman ball), the '69 collapse and more.

I love baseball.

Bengals vs. Ravens, not-quite-live blog

2008-09-07T17:06:00.003-04:00

Okay, this isn’t a live blog ‘cause I TiVo'd the game, and I'm watching it on about a 1- hour delay. For the greatest benefit of TiVo, please see the end of this post. Until then, enjoy the Nachoman's comments, which basically boil down to the same theme of the past 17 years for the Cincinnati Bengals.

7:51 1st q… Carson Palmer has dropped back to pass three times. Three times he has had time to find someone deep downfield, and hasn’t. Whither Chad Johnson?

6:00 1st… that’s twice now that Chris Perry has run up the butt of his own man.

4:13 1st… good thing for Cincy that Baltimore hasn’t executed on O – fumble by Heap, failure to catch a ball on the sideline, failure to execute a boot-chip, an RB tripped when he had a huge cutback lane… defense has played well so far, but due more to Baltimore’s ineptitude than the Bengals’ excellence.

2:44 1st… I like the Baltimore no huddle. They weren’t getting anywhere with a huddle, perhaps this will improve the execution. And, the Bengals were unlikely to be prepared for no-huddle from a rookie QB.

2:12 1st… Ravens run a reverse, the Bengals D looks like 11 Mr. Magoos overpursuing and failing to tackle. Good blocking by the Ravens, though…

1:40 1st… nice block by Bengals #82 on the swing pass. The Bengals have been going no-huddle, too.

1:20 1st… so much for that first overall pick in the fantasy draft – Brady is out with a leg injury.

0:54 1st… Oh boy, illegal formation on the Bengals. Six men on the line. Absolutely unforgivable for a pro team. Oh, that’s right, I’m watching the third-best football team in the state of Ohio.

END 1st… Baltimore 7, Bengals suck.

14:50 2nd… The announcers are making a big deal of how the Ravens have flushed Palmer a bunch of times. But except on one occasion, Palmer escaped the pressure and had the opportunity to look downfield. It’s the Ravens secondary that has played well, I think.

14:12 2nd… another missed easy through by Flacco that would’ve been a first down. I must be watching SD State vs. Norte Dame.

13:56… once again Palmer under pressure, once again time to look, once again no one open. Theme of the day?

13:09… More JV-level football, as CIN calls timeout ‘cause they can’t get organized on O. Cincy getting DOMINATED on the line.

12:20… Jonathan Joseph has made two good defensive plays, though he got beat on that play by Mark Clayton.

11:32… Baltimore’s Ray Rice drops a touchdown, or at least a long first down. Crappy, crappy offense. Now three flags on the Bengals punt return. Aarrgh! Fred Jordan’s joke about how both of these teams should be relegated was right on.

11:13… The good news is, watching bad football is far less painful than watching bad baseball. I don’t have to stare at relief pitchers grimacing and going 3-0 to every batter.

10:30… more domination of the Bengals O-line. Where’s Anthony Munoz when you need him? At this rate, even the 50 year old Munoz would be useful here.

9:46… Palmer’s first deep ball… not well thrown because Carson got hit hard on the delayed blitz.

9:27… time for the ritual beheading of the Bengals special teams coach, as the Ravens return a punt for a TD, but called back by an illegal block. Now David Jones is hurt… no loss there. Even with the penalty, the Ravens take over in Cincy territory.

8:45… unforgivable penalty tally is now 2-1 in favor of the Bengals. Illegal formation and defensive offside on Cincy, false start on the Ravens. Sets up an easy first down for the Ravens.

7:45… good coverage on three consecutive plays by the Bengals secondary. Ravens shank a field goal, still 7-0. Let’s see if the Bengals can move at all on offense.

7:41… “Comedy that hits home,” intones the announcer. Gee, I thought he was talking about the Bengals offense.

7:32… This is what happens when a team can get such effective pressure with only 4 or 5 guys. The Bengals can’t run, and they can’t pass ‘cause the coverage can be so effective.

6:46… Unforgivable penalties 3-1 Bengals with the delay call. You guys stink… how ‘bout donating your first 1.5 quarters of paychecks to charity?

6:15… Good news: TJ Houshmanwhatsa caught a pass, finally. Bad news: it was a 6 yard completion on 3rd and 16.

5:39… Announcer notes that Chad Johnson likes to get his catches quickly in a game, and when he goes a long time without a completion, his “demeanor goes right down the toilet.” Couldn’t have said it better myself.

5:30… Great play by a Bengals D-lieman I’ve never heard of, #68, Fanene. Sorry if the sarcasm is overbearing here… I’m trying to compliment what goes well for the team. It’s just that a Bengals fan has 17 years worth of learning how much his team stinks.

4:17… Another excellent job by Jonathan Joseph. Can you believe it? Good cornerbacks on the Bengals?
4:08… Okay, that’s TWICE now that the Bengals have double-teamed the gunner on the Ravens punt team, yet have allowed the gunner a free inside release. This time it probably cost 10-15 yards on the return. That’s pathetic.

3:55… Can I please, please watch a play in which a Ravens D Lineman isn’t 4 yards in the backfield right after the snap?

2:40… Ray Lewis strips Chris Perry. Turnovers are 2-1. Now a personal foul on the Bengals defense. LACK OF DISCIPLINE, says the announcer. Why am I watching this? That’s right, I TiVo’ed it, so I can’t switch to Jets-Dolphins.

1:46… Todd Heap drops a sure touchdown. Boy, if the Ravens were competent, the score should be 28-0.

1:33… Palmer throwing off his back foot now, there’s so much pressure. This does not bode well, even if they did get a pass interference call.

1:04… A CHAD JOHNSON SIGHTING!!! He draws an interference call on Chris McCallister, his second in three plays. Credit to Chad on that… drawing interference is as good as a completion.

0:53… that’s the first time Palmer’s been well protected, and it’s an easy completion to TJ for a first down.

END FIRST HALF… Baltimore 10, Bengals 3. Both of these teams stink.

15:00 3rd Q… Bengals do something right on special teams, with a 40 yard kick return!

13:27… I hate when a team has to challenge a play, hoping to be allowed to punt because your receiver dropped an easy first down. At least they pinned the Ravens deep.

12:32… Terrible play by Cincy #91. He’s in coverage on the zone blitz, where #91 went for the interception rather than making the tackle. It could have been 3rd and 8, now it’s first and 10 after a 12 yard gain or so.

8:42… Baltimore is moving down the field efficiently. It’s good to see the Bengals defense aggressive, but the Ravens are using the aggressiveness against them with screens, misdirection, and such.

6:45… Now the Bengals defense is tired. They’ve been on the field for 7 minutes or so, and they’re getting killed systematically and slowly. That’s been true all day – without mistakes, as on this drive, the Ravens have an offence that can dominate the Bengals.

5:26… Leon Hall makes a play to save the Bengals to force a fourth down. Good for the Ravens, though, they’re going on 4th down! They fail on a defensed pass.

5:14… Now a miscommunication means that Carson Palmer has to throw the ball away. Now it happens again! My JV offense is better coordinated than this.

5:02… Why can’t Chad Johnson carry the ball properly after a reception? He’s a fumble waiting to happen.

3:45… Stupidicisms are now 4-1, as a delay penalty calls back a 3rd down conversion. It’s now 3rd and 11. You guys suck.

2:58… Bengals go on 4th and 2, as they should. Too bad they need a time out in order to call the play. Shovel pass is stuffed. I agree with the call, though.

2:01… The Ravens give their QB up to 6 seconds to throw. Carson Palmer has had no time all day.

1:54… Jonathan Joseph goes down. Can anything good happen for the Bengals? If I were the Ravens, I’d just pound the ball to run out the clock right now.

:44… Leon Hall gives away a corner blitz about 5 second too soon, it’s picked up, first down Ravens.

:30… #55 for the Bengals loses contain, and a big slow quarterback manages to scramble 40 yards for a touchdown. My goodness, this must be the worst NFL performance I’ve witnessed in years, or at least since the 2003 Bengals.

:10 3rd … either Housh ran the wrong route, or Palmer threw the wrong route. Either way, I don’t see much hustle from Housh.

End third quarter on a ball that should’ve been intercepted, but will force a punt. Baltimore leads, 17-3.

I CAN’T TAKE THIS ANYMORE. End of note taking.

Okay, now I see that a Jonathan Joseph fumble return got the Bengals within striking distance, but Chris Perry got stuffed on 4th and 1 with 7 minutes left. Oh, and the Ravens ran out the clock for 7 more minutes. How pathetic is that.

Great job Jonathan Joseph. Maybe the Bengals should put him on the O line. Grrr, this was depressing.

First Baseman Scoops and the Large Hadron Rap

2008-09-06T10:33:00.003-04:00

Longtime readers of this column know that the Nachoman is an inveterate statistician. I have a Cincinnati Reds Official Scorebook, the same version used by Marty Brenneman and Joe Nuxhall (RIP) in the Reds broadcast booth. In that book are records of games back to 1988 – in fact, I used that book as evidence when a friend challenged my contention that Craig Biggio had begun his career as a catcher.

Nowadays I keep scorecards professionally for STATS, LLC. One of the fringe benefits of working for STATS is the occasional enlightening email from my boss, Chuck Miller, highlighting an obscure stat that he’s compiled from his crew’s data entry.

For example, for each putout, assist, and error, the STATS reporter rates the difficulty of the play on a scale of 1-4, where a 4 means that the play should make Sportscenter’s top ten plays of the night. A couple of years ago Mr. Miller sent us a list of the batters who had most often been victimized by a level-4 defensive play in the 12 years we had been collecting data. I wrote about this statistic in this 2006 column… but before you click over there, try to guess which batter topped the list.

This year comes a hidden stat that provides some evidence for my gut feelings about team defense. On every ground ball to an infielder, a STATS reporter is asked if the first baseman attempted to scoop a throw that bounced in front of him. If so, we also indicate whether the scoop attempt was successful.

Before reading further, think about which first basemen you think are best at making said scoops. Now, “best” here isn’t necessarily easy to quantify. If the rest of the infield is any good, then the first baseman won’t have that many scoop attempts because he’ll generally get on-target throws. We can look at the percentage of throws in the dirt that the first baseman scooped successfully, but even that could be a misleading stat unless we have a large sample size. The data I have are for the 2008 season through August 25, and demand a minimum of 21 scoop attempts. With the small sample size caveat, let’s look at the numbers:

All major league first baseman have attempted 1500 scoops, and are 80% successful at turning these throws into outs. My first reaction is “That’s pretty danged good.” This winter at Umpire School I twice jumped into a game at first base[1] and found it incredibly difficult to field a bounced throw. The main difficulty was the grass cutout, which sits a couple of inches above the surrounding dirt. If the ball bounces anywhere near the cutout, the bounce is nearly unpredictable. When a throw headed for that cutout, I could hardly prevent myself from curling up into a ball to protect my face and other delicate parts from the approaching projectile. Perhaps I should have worn my mask.

Who was the best scooper, percentage wise, in the majors? Ross Gload of KC fielded 32 of 34 attempts, a 94% success rate. Mssrs. Helton, Delgado, and Garko were all at or above 90%. Perhaps even more impressive were the performances of Justin Morneau and Ryan Howard, who made the most successful scoops of anyone – 54 in 66 attempts, an 82% rate but with far more opportunities than most other first basemen.

What about the butt end of the list? Hovering at 68% are the Angels’ Teixeira, the Marlins’ Jacobs and the A’s’ Barton. They are only second-to-last-place. The absolute worst scooper by percentage in the majors, at 61% (for 55 attempts), is the Reds’ Joey Votto.

A look at the list by team is even more damning to the entire Reds organization, not just to Mr. Votto. The Reds have fielded the third-most bounced throws in the majors, at 64 throws. Only the Twins and Phillies have made more of these bad throws (though both teams have scooped at an 80% clip). Bounced throws by themselves could be construed as an indictment of a whole infield – the Mariners have only made 32 bounced throws to first base.[2] Furthermore, the Reds as a team have the worst scoop percentage in the majors, at an overall 63 percent. It’s not just Mr. Votto who can’t pic it.

No wonder Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto often seem afraid to pitch to contact. Inexperienced pitching, a teensy ballpark, and the worst infield defense available… recipe for success or disaster? One look at the standings will answer that question.

I hope none of my tax dollars paid for the rap song
Though I have legitimate credentials as a physicist, I don’t toe the line politically with the rest of the physicist community. I was pleased when the Superconducting Supercollider was cancelled in the mid-1990s; I do not generally support enormous government outlays for ever-bigger particle accelerators and manned spacecraft boondoggles. It is certainly true that basic scientific research has demonstrable long term economic benefit. However, there are other ways to support basic research than to blindly allocate billions of dollars to keep high-energy physicists employed.

The next of the giant particle accelerators – which have made essentially one significant discovery in the last 25 years[3] – is the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) in Europe which will begin operation this year. That’s great in the sense that the LHC will verify or de-verify the existence and properties of the Higgs Boson, which is necessary for the verification of virtually all of particle physics theory. That’s great. My objection is the cost… just how much, exactly, is the knowledge of the Higgs Boson worth? Leon Lederman, 1988 Nobel Prize winner, called the Higgs the “God Particle” in his book of the same name. Me, I call it the “Six Billion Dollar Particle." [4]

Whatever your stance on the LHC, you simply must observe a few moments of the “Large Hadron Rap” on the video below, which features seemingly authentic physicists in hardhats and lab coats lip-synching badly. Thanks to El Molé for the link…

And finally, a quiz

Can you name the one significant discovery made by large-scale particle accelerators over the past 25 years? Put your answer in the comments, or I'll mention the answer in the next post.

[1] without wearing a cup, which might make a huge difference

[2] A reasonable counterargument here could be that an infielder is more willing to make a hurried or off-balance throw if he has confidence that his first baseman can make a scoop; without that confidence, the infielder might just eat the ball, preventing the throwing error but giving the team no chance of recording an out. Don’t worry, I know that this stat is hugely context-dependent.

[3] Compare that to the success of NASA’s space telescope program, which has produced uncountable advances in astrophysics in just 15 years.

[4] Note that I give no credence whatsoever to those fringe elements – including my hero Tuesday Morning Quarterback – who quote debunked science to garner media attention to complain that the LHC might destroy the universe. I’m not kidding. The Wikipedia article on the LHC has been locked for editing because said idiots are vandalizing the article by over-promoting the “safety concerns.” The discussion on this topic is enlightening… take a look at the LHC talk page.

Hurricanes and Bud Light

2008-09-02T17:49:00.007-04:00

What was your highlight of College Football's opening weekend? Was it Pam Ward's comment, during Northwestern's victory over Syracuse, that the NU players were looking toward the sideline because they "want to go for it" on 3rd and 9? Was it the demolition of Michigan by a non-BCS foe for the second year in a row (HA!)? Was it UCLA's comeback to beat Tennessee, which was exciting and dramatic and WAY too late on the east coast for a good Nachoman to actually watch?

I'm not sure. I didn't watch college football like a journalist, I watched like a casual fan, meaning I didn't make any notes on the games. So today's post will discuss overly dramatic weather and commercials.

Hide the women and children!
My favorite football commentator, Tuesday Morning Quarterback, regularly takes media outlets to task for creating drama where none exists, or for acting as if mild drama were a cataclysmic event. The Nachoman himself has on occasion excoriated local news channels for causing public panic when severe weather approaches, and then congratulating themselves after the “threat” passes as if the station saved lives by sending a man in a raincoat to the beach during a category 1 hurricane. Gustav’s landfall near New Orleans gave me an opportunity to observe disingenuous headlining from several websites:

The August 30 Yahoo headline indicated that Gustav was “approaching” category 5 status, and the text below suggested that it “could” turn category 5 before making landfall.

September 1 8:00 AM headline: the “powerful category 3 storm” is about to make landfall.

September 1 11:00 AM headline: “Gustav Weakens [to category 2], but country still wary.”

Monday in his si.com column, Peter King discussed options for the New Orleans Saints in case the city were destroyed by hurricanes this or next week.

Tuesday on SI: “Saints will play in New Orleans on Sunday.”

No wonder reasonable people underestimated Katrina. Every hurricane, in New Orleans and elsewhere, is hyped as if Armageddon were on the way. Local TV stations interrupt regular programming with giant beeping graphics whenever a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect.[1] Stop the madness!

Since I can’t afford to waste any more of my time, I’ll waste yours
The greatest ad campaign of the past decade, in the Nachoman’s not-so-humble opinion, has been Bud Light’s “Real Men of Genius” radio series. Since I listen to the radio so infrequently anymore, and since only a very few of these became TV ads during major sporting events, I have only heard a fraction of the 60-second spots. That is, until now…

Imagine my enthusiasm upon discovering the entire series of ads in mp3 format (for free). I challenge the Nachoman readership to go to this site to hear as many as you can stand. Post a comment indicating your favorite. I hereby begin by voting for “Mr. Really Big Pet Snake Owner,” though “Mr. Nudist Colony Activity Coordinator” might take a close second.

(P.S. Does is sound as wrong to you as it does to me when the announcer closes with "Anheuser-Busch, Fort Collins, Colorado" rather than "Anheuser-Busch, St. Louis, Missouri?")

[1] i.e. every day between June 12 and August 27 for those stations located in Kansas or Nebraska

Exciting Sports Events in New York (and the rest of the country)

2008-08-31T20:42:00.005-04:00

To the Nachoman, the most important events of the week have been JV football practices… twice a day, every day, for six straight days. The good news is, our defense looks good, the offense has learned the basic plays we’re running, and no one is out for the year with injury.

To the city of New York, though, perhaps these events took precedence:

The Yankees put themselves on the brink of elimination
Though they swept the Hapless Orioles at week’s opening, the Yanks proceeded to drop two of three to the wild card-leading Sawx. Sweeping that series was perhaps the Yankees’ last opportunity to make the playoffs. They are down to a 1% chance of playing in October.

The Mets signed a sponsorship deal with the NYC Cardiologist Association
Since the Brewers are most likely to win the NL wild card, the Mets and Phils are in an old-fashioned pennant race for the eastern division. In six games this week, five ended in dramatic fashion. They:

lost on a walk-off walk
won on a walk-off grand salami
came back with four runs in the 8th (against the Phillies!)
lost in 13 innings after leading 7-0 (against the Phillies!)
(won by blowout)
gave up 2 homers in the top of the 10th for the loss

Though I’ve seen a good bit of “oy”-ing about the Mets bullpen from internet scribes, and though said bullpen has been responsible for a number of high-profile blowups this year, the Mets actually have a slightly better bullpen WHIP than the Phillies. (Mets 1.37, 15th in MLB; Phillies 1.40, 18th in MLB.)

Mike and the Mad Dog broke up
I personally have never listened to these famous New York sports talk radio hosts, though I did listen to a Bill Simmons interview with Mr. Dog. These gentlemen had been broadcasting daily for 20 years. It sounds like they finally got sick of each other, plus Sirius Satellite Radio offered Mr. Dog his own entire channel, resulting in an amicable divorce.

Osi Umenyiora is out for the season
The Giants held the best offense in the history of football to two measly touchdowns in the Super Duper Bowl last February.[1] Their strategy: rush Tom Brady hard, and do their level best to frustrate Randy Moss downfield. Defensive linemen Osi Umenyiora and Michael Strahan seemingly put more pressure on Mr. Brady in one game than he had faced all season. Plus, it helped that Eli Manning didn’t turn into a pumpkin when he had a chance to drive his team for the win.

Now, though, Mr. Strahan has signed with Fox Sports as a free agent,[2] Mr. Umenyiora injured himself in a preseason game, and the Giants 2008 prospects look dim.

Ana Ivanovich was eliminated from the US Open in the second round
Which means that heterosexual New York men will have to ogle some of the other 3 million attractive young women in the city this week.

And what happened outside New York?
Rich Rodriguez earned a million dollars or so for getting his Michigan team beat by Utah; Nick Saban’s team actually won a game against a non-cupcake opponent.

The more interesting college football story from the weekend came from Chapel Hill, North Carolina – or at least, was SUPPOSED to come from there. For their home opener, the University of North Carolina planned to have the game ball delivered to the field via skydivers… but neither the ball nor the skydivers ever showed up. What happened?

Turns out, according to the News Observer, the divers in their plane were about to cancel the jump due to overcast conditions. But the clouds parted, they saw the stadium, and so they made the jump. Down the parachutes came, onto the field while the teams warmed up.

Problem is, the teams warming up weren’t Carolina and McNeese State, but rather Duke and James Madison. Duke’s campus, and its large stadium, are located only eight miles from the University of North Carolina. The parachutists didn’t realize they were at the wrong game site until they landed, when they “scrambled” off the field.

Oops. Perhaps these skydivers should take the stadium quiz.

-- NM

[1] Though I’m still angry at ESPN for choosing that game as the “best upset of the season,” despite the fact that division II Ap State beat Michigan during the same season.
[2] The partnership with Howie Long gives FOX the best passrush of all the pregame shows

Does Dusty Baker ruin pitchers?

2008-08-22T09:19:00.005-04:00

Steve Panitz, Assistant Nachoman for New York Affairs (Mets division), checked in this week with some Reds thoughts:

"I remember back in May when Harang pitched 4 innings in relief on two days rest and then came out for his pitching turn 4 days later,"oh now, here goes dusty baker again." Harang has been awful/injured since. Let’s see:

IP H ER K BB ERA WHIP
until may 25: 78.2 75 29 72 19 3.32 1.19
since may25: 51.2 79 52 43 19 9.06 1.90

Baker ruined Mark Prior's career, and did a job on Kerry Wood. The Reds have too many good young pitchers right now to chance having Dusty Baker around."

Huh... interesting thought. I still don't blame Dusty for Wood and Prior -- I think, in general, pitchers are excessively babied now just so a manager or GM never has to face accusations of overwork. Dusty doesn't ask his young guys to go beyond 110 pitches or so very often -- and 120 is sort of a threshold for “pitcher abuse,” according to Baseball Prospectus. Older pitchers, like Harang, can pitch lots more than their younger counterparts because their arm strength has already developed.

Not everyone remembers the other end of the Bell Curve from Wood or Prior: Livan Hernandez can average something like130 pitches per start over his entire career without arm damage. Or, look at Joba, who was babied as much as any young pitcher, and yet has still succumbed to arm trouble. Oh, for the days when starting pitchers knew the art of pitching, when they held back their fastest fastball just for crucial situations so they could pitch 8 or 9 innings.

But you raise an interesting and likely correct point about Harang... I'd also note that Mr. Volquez has had two good starts since Dusty gave him an extra day off a few weeks ago.

Oh, and Steve, if you're going to continue to contribute, you need a foodstuff-related theme name.

Can you believe that the Rockies were contenders last week?

2008-08-15T15:54:00.008-04:00

Welcome to the NL west, where the Rockies were effectively[1] eliminated by their loss to the D-backs on Tuesday, despite a record essentially equivalent to that of the Royals, Indians, Reds, and A’s. The highlight of my week scoring games for STATS was Saturday’s San Diego vs. Colorado matchup.[2] Greg Maddux and Aaron Cook both pitched exceedingly well until the 7th inning, when Mr. Cook got hammered and had to exit. Thing is, at the time the Rockies had a slim chance of still catching the rather lousy division leaders. The Rox lost that night… and now, a week later, they are as out of the race as the Royals.

In other major baseball news close to the Nachoman’s heart, the Reds followed the Griffey trade by sending Adam Dunn to the Diamondbacks for three pitchers, including two-way stud Micah Owings. Yay! I completely understand, respect, and agree with the arguments that Adam Dunn is one of the most useful hitters in baseball, despite the fact that he strikes out in one month more than I did in my entire little league career.[3] Yet, I’m glad to see him go. He will command way, way more money next year than a rebuilding team like the Reds should be paying. More to the point, I – and, presumably, Reds pitchers – no longer cringe every time a fly ball is lofted to left field. All pitching staffs need strong defense behind them. A young staff like that of the Reds needs solid defense even more critically… I wonder how much of Edinson Volquez’s second-half struggles can be attributed to pitching for the strikeout rather than to contact, having been burned by cheap hits to Mssrs. Dunn and Griffey too many times.

This week’s quiz, meant in all seriousness:
Which of the following is the best defensive outfielder?
(A) Adam Dunn
(B) Manny Ramirez
(C) Luke Perry

No, folks, not THAT Luke Perry. I mean the Luke Perry who was a three-year starter on the Woodberry Forest varsity.[4]

For the definitive answer, I turned to Andrew Handelsman, baseball coach, Spanish professor, and Mets fan. After I got him to stop laughing and take the question seriously, he provided a rather hedged and nuanced answer.

“I can tell you Luke’s got far better range,” Mr. Handelsman said. Mr. Perry is well known for running down fly balls nearly from foul line to foul line. “Luke’s arm is not as strong as a major leaguer’s, though.”

“Yeah,” I replied, “but he at least makes a throw. Adam Dunn might be physically capable of throwing someone out at the plate, but the ball always clangs off of the his glove first.”

Mets fans seem pleasant and supportive… right?
A couple of weeks ago I taught an AP physics workshop at Manhattan [New York] College.[5] There I found myself engulfed in a gaggle of Mets fans. There was Scott, a kick-butt physics teacher at Brooklyn Technical High School who keeps a detailed scorecard at every game; Steve, a former Wall Street financier who is beginning a new career teaching at a boys’ Yeshiva; Kat, a city girl who is endearingly excited about her first job as a biological engineer; and others. All were friendly folks, intense about their love of the Mets, but in a positive and supportive way. During my week in the city, the Mets bullpen blew an easy save. I detected no trace of the stereotypical rudeness and bitterness that much of the country believes to be endemic to New York fans. I couldn’t envision any of these new friends giving their team a one-fingered salute while hollering red-faced invective.

Now, granted, things MAY have been different had I visited in June, while the team languished and Omar Minaya threatened Willie Randolph with concrete shoes and the East River.[6] But in a time when the team was experiencing considerable success, I found Mets fans quite enjoyable.

I see no reason to hang his head in shame
Saturday night, San Diego at Colorado… Chase Headley came up in the top of the 2nd inning with a man on second and none out. He hit a deep fly ball to left, just shy of the warning track in front of the 390 sign. Rockies left fielder Matt Holliday made a nice play to catch up with the ball and relay it quickly back to the infield. Kevin Kouzmanoff had gone halfway, and so did not advance to third.

This provoked a long discussion in the booth of how Headley “shouldn’t make eye contact with anyone” on his return to the dugout, because he didn’t advance the runner. “A young guy HAS to advance the runner,” said the FSN Rocky Mountain announcer.

Um, this young guy just about hit a home run. In the gigantic Coors Field outfield, any hard hit fly ball has the potential to fall in for a double. In fact, later in the game Mr. Headley contributed an RBI single and an RBI double. So, really, you’d rather Mr. Headley bunt, or hit a soft grounder to the second baseman? Maybe in the 9th inning of a tie game, but in the 2nd inning? I don’t think so. Nevertheless, FSN criticized Mr. Headley severely, especially when Nick Hundley’s ground ball would have scored Kouzmanoff had he been on third base.

Headley hit the ball so deep, in fact, that I wonder why Mr. Kouzmanoff didn’t advance. He had gone halfway to third base. The purpose of going halfway is to ensure a run should the ball drop for a hit. On a ball hit that far into the outfield, though, a runner should tag: if it’s caught, he goes to third; if it falls in, well, he can score easily from second base anyway. Shouldn’t the booth instead blame Kouzmanoff’s bad baserunning for the team’s failure to score that inning?

PTI observations
Though the Nachoman is in no way pleased with the proliferation of the “two or more guys screaming unfounded opinion at one another” shows throughout sports television, I nevertheless enjoy the founders of the genre, Tony Kornheiser and Michael Wilbon of Pardon the Interruption. In order to listen to these characters and still maintain one’s devotion to logic and reason, a willing suspension of disbelief on the part of the audience is mandatory. Both Mssrs. Kornheiser and Wilbon are taking on roles, eschewing a deep and nuanced redaction of sports issues in order to have a loud debate. I keep coming back to PTI partly because Mike and Tony are very good at the roles they play, but more importantly because I have an impression that both are fully capable of deep and nuanced analysis.

Nevertheless, the Nachograndpa took PTI to task for their analysis of the Packers decision to trade Brett Favre:

I have no idea whether the Packers made a good or bad decision. However, I don't understand the thinking of several talk show hosts, including Tony Kornheiser. The thinking seems to go: who'd make the best quarterback for Green Bay this year? No other question is relevent. These people tolerate no discussion about longer-term considerations.

They can't be serious. No matter what, a team should go all out for the current year? No team does this. Perhaps you do this if you think there is a very high probability of getting to the Superbowl this year. But maybe in the Packers' judgment the probability isn't that high. Viewing the longer term certainly seems an argument that at least Tony Kornheiser would grasp. I'm lost by all this.

My response: Of course Tony gets this. But his on-air persona does not, because “longer-term considerations” don’t make for a good shouting match.

Similarly, Fire Joe Morgan pointed out a major mathematical gaffe in the “oddsmakers” section of PTI. A few weeks ago Tony and Mike were asked to give the probability that the Twins would beat the White Sox in that night's game. About 50-50, right, maybe leaning slightly one way or the other, for a game between these two teams fighting for first place in the central?

Wilbon: 0%.
Kornheiser: 100%.

What doofuses. But, “I think it’s an even match, might as well flip a coin” doesn’t bring in the beer ads.

They do, but not for THAT state
Burrito Girl, the Nachoman’s wife and sidekick, walked by during the Padres game. “South Dakota?” she asked. I was momentarily bemused. “Huh?”

“SD. South Dakota? They have a team for the whole state?”

As of Saturday: active pitching leaders in double play groundouts

Tom Glavine 417
Greg Maddux 414

Yes, that’s a stat born of longevity as much as innate ability, but nevertheless, the Nachoman is rooting for the Mad Dog to overtake his 1994 union rep in this and all other statistical categories.

Speaking of Glavine and Maddux
As both pitchers aged, they relied increasingly on their pinpoint control. Mr. Glavine’s struggles were widely noted when umpire evaluation via the “QuesTec” system began. Previously, Mr. Glavine had gotten calls well off of the outside corner; once the electronic eye began checking the accuracy of umpires’ strike zones, Mr. Glavine lost his most effective pitch.

Greg Maddux can be vulnerable to umpires’ idiosyncrasies as well. HIS best pitch is a sort of backup fastball, thrown directly at a batter’s knees but breaking over the inside corner. On Saturday, Eric Cooper kept missing this Maddux backdoor fastball. Or, at least Mr. Maddux thought that Mr. Cooper was missing it. Maddux several times glared at the umpire. Heck, I’d be intimidated knowing that the best pitcher in the history of baseball, whose control is so good that his catcher can close his eyes, disagreed with my judgement. I’d hang my head in shame. [Note: that’s probably one of the reasons I wasn’t top of my class at Umpire School.]

Bad mistakes in the booth: rules interpretations
Back in January at Umpire School, our class spent a rainy Saturday afternoon using the video equipment at the hotel bar[7] to watch instructional DVDs. Mostly we saw interesting and unusual rulings: a pitch lodging in the catcher’s gear, obstruction, interference, and so forth. In virtually every case, we saw the play, saw the umpire make the correct ruling… and listened to the announcers blabber incorrectly and incoherently about the ruling over six replays. The moral of the story, as if we needed the reminder: announcers don’t ever seem to know the rules. This week the Nachoman observed three major rules gaffes.

FSN Rocky Mountain: On a popup just beyond the reach of the first baseman, the ball landed a few inches foul. “If Gonzalez touches that ball, it’s fair, because he’s in fair territory.” BZZZ. No, the ball’s location when touched, not the player’s location, determines fair or foul.

FSN Florida: Perpetuated the myth that “the tie goes to the runner.” BZZZ. Um, there’s no such rule in the rulebook, and there’s no such guideline for umpires. To their credit, FSN corrected themselves later on in the game.

FSN Cincinnati: With Brandon Phillips on 2nd base, Adam Dunn hit a soft liner that landed right near Mr. Phillips. Astros shortstop Miguel Tejada avoided Phillips, fielded the ball cleanly, and threw Dunn out at first. But, second base umpire Joe West called Mr. Phillips out for interference.

The FSN booth made two rules interpretation mistakes here. First, they questioned Mr. West’s judgment of interference. They couldn’t tell whether Mr. Phillips had in fact contacted the Mr. Tejada, but conceded that interference was the correct call if contact occurred. BZZZ! A runner who “impedes, hinders, or confuses” a fielder is guilty of interference; contact is irrelvent.

Secondly, FSN wondered why the Astros didn’t argue, because Mr. Dunn was allowed to go to 1st base, even though Mr. Tejada had thrown him out. “There’s nothing in the rulebook that says interference is a dead ball,” they said. BZZZ! Take a look at rule 2.0, and scroll down to the definition of interference: “…On any interference the ball is dead.” Mr. Dunn was placed at first base because he had completed his time at bat when time was called. The only way Dunn would have been out was if Mr. Phillips had “willfully and deliberately” interfered for the express purpose of preventing a double play.

More on San Diego-Colorado
The Padres took a 6-1 lead over the Rockies in the 6th inning behind the hall of fame pitching of Greg Maddux. Of course, Mr. Maddux has not pitched beyond 6 innings since April… he’s still effective, but not for nearly as long as he used to be. Having only thrown 70 pitches, Maddux came out for the 7th, but gave up two straight hard-hit singles. After consulting with Mr. Maddux, manager Bud Black sent the call to the ‘pen for Mike Adams. Big mistake.

Mr. Adams effectively retired Gerald Atkins, but then walked Ian Stewart on a 3-2 count to load the bases. Next, unforgivably, he walked .243-hitting Troy Tulowitzki – WITH A 5 RUN LEAD – to force in a run.

Mike Adams, you have earned the Nachoman’s Stinky Cheese Award. Get thee to the bench, and don’t return until you’ve learned to throw strikes.

[Postscript: Clay Hensley rescued Mr. Adams by inducing a double play off the bat of catcher Chris Ianetta. “Whew,” said Greg Maddux and the rest of the Padres faithful.]

Shirtlessness does not translate to broadcast competence[8]
Sure, okay, Brandi Chastain kicked the world-cup winning PK back in 1999 for the US Women’s national team. And, the image of her ripping off her shirt on national live television ensured significant interest and television ratings for women’s soccer for years. I know. She’s a national hero, and she’s cute, too.

But, she’s a LOUSY soccer commentator. Just one of her many contributions that I heard before I hit the mute button:

“Topspin on a shot ensures that the ball goes up, then comes down.” No, Ms. Chastain, the physics principle you want here is “gravity.”

Next Week
Check out this clip of the Nachoman on local Cincinnati television news. (You have to click on “Local author combines science and sports.”) Next week, you might see a quiz on Bernoulli’s principle, or perhaps instead on the “Dog Eats Fork” story on the same newscast.

-- NM

[1] Meaning, their odds of making the postseason dropped below 1%
[2] The lowlight was Wednesday’s Reds-Pirates clash, which had the Nachoman pounding his head on the wall as Josh Fogg destroyed an otherwise reasonable outing when he walked the 8th place hitter with none out in a close game. Kudos to Pirate pitcher Paul Maholm, who held the Reds to 2 runs in 8 innings, and who worked quickly and threw strikes.
[3] Mr. Dunn thus strikes out an ENORMOUS amount, as anyone who played youth baseball with the Nachoman will attest.
[4] And also an excellent AP Physics student. I don’t think Dunn and Ramirez would have done as well as Mr. Perry in my class. But I digress.
[5] The clarification is only fair… why should the default Manhattan be New York and not Kansas?
[6] Is the East River ever mentioned outside the context of assassination by “legitimate businessmen?”
[7] which was open, but not for us
[8] Take note, new Jets employee Jenn Sterger

Friday's Non-Ironic Multiple Choice Quiz

2008-08-15T07:44:00.004-04:00

Which of the following is the best defensive outfielder?
(A) Adam Dunn
(B) Manny Ramirez
(C) Luke Perry

No, folks, not THAT Luke Perry. I mean the Luke Perry who was a three-year starter on the Woodberry Forest varsity.[1]

For the definitive answer, I turned to Andrew Handelsman, baseball coach, Spanish professor, and Mets fan. After I got him to stop laughing and take the question seriously, he provided a rather hedged and nuanced answer.

I will publish his response, along with thoughts on the fading Rockies and the Adam Dunn trade, in Friday evening's post.

[1] And also an excellent AP Physics student. I don’t think Dunn and Ramirez would have done as well as Mr. Perry in my class. But I digress.

Cards-Dodgers and other stories

2008-08-08T17:26:00.007-04:00

The Nachoman has a heavy schedule for STATS this week: I worked Tuesday and Thursday, then again I’ll be working Friday and Saturday. Thing is, three of these four games pit also-rans against one another. I have the pleasure of working Astros-Reds twice, and Pads-Rockies once. Grrr.

Thus, I was looking forward to Tuesday’s matchup of contenders with decent pitching: Los Angeles at St. Louis. Chris Carpenter returned from the dead to start for the Cardinals; Chad Billingsley, who’s been pretty darned solid in his three years in the league, started for the men in Blue. These pitchers lived up to their sterling reputations.

Mr. Carpenter had struggled with his command in his first attempt to return from a 1.5 season hiatus. On this night, though, he looked like the gentleman who dominated the NL just a few short years ago. He threw 51 pitches in five innings, indicating the extent to which he was obtaining decisions early in the count. Only twice did he fall behind 2-0 to a hitter: once to Jeff Kent, who singled on a 3-0 pitch; and once to Russell Martin, who took two strikes and grounded out. This was not a Brandon Webb-style outing, as Mr. Carpenter only convinced one batter to swing and miss (that was Matt Kemp, who did so twice leading off the game), and he only struck out two. In fact, the second time Mr. Carpenter faced the top of the Dodgers order, FIVE STRAIGHT TIMES batters hit the ball hard. But he kept the ball in the park or on the ground, as the defense didn’t even have to stretch itself on two flyouts, a groundout, and a double play. No one ever reached second base in five innings.

As for the Dodgers, Mr. Billingsley struck out six in his five innings. He had to work harder than Mr. Carpenter, since he allowed runners in scoring position in three of those innings. Yet, Billingsley seemed in control the whole night. He retired King Albert two of three times, allowing only a two-out single in the first that did no damage. Two of the hits he allowed were seeing-eye grounders to lead off the 2nd inning; a couple of strikeouts and a fly ball eliminated that threat.

Hidden effects of an error
In the 4th inning, Dodger shortstop Angel Berroa committed a throwing error trying to get the slow running Yadier Molina on a grounder. Thing is, though Mr. Berroa’s throw was in the dirt, first baseman James Loney should have made the straightforward scoop. He didn’t, so Berroa took the error in the scorebook. The good news for LA was that Joe Mather flew out on three pitches to end the inning. So the error was practically harmless, right?

Consider the 5th inning, which began with a strikeout to pitcher Chris Carpenter (hitting eighth). Cesar Izturis, the 9th place hitter, singled, and the top of the order came to bat with one on and one out. This situation – runner on first, one out – typically leads to 0.57 runs, as shown in a run expectancy chart.

Had the Dodgers made the play on Molina the previous inning, 7th place hitter Mather would have led off the inning in front of the pitcher. Even if Mr. Billingsley couldn’t get 7-8-9 out in order, he would have had one more bottom-of-the-order hitter to make an out before reaching the leadoff man. A runner on first with TWO outs typically leads to only 0.25 runs.

As things worked out in the 5th
Leadoff hitter Skip Schumaker singled, Adam Kennedy singled to drive in a run, bringing King Albert to the plate with two on, one out, and a chance to do real damage. Then Mr. Billingsley was too careful, falling behind 3-1 to the King. Oh, boy.

Even the best hitter makes an out two out of three times. King Albert swung and missed at the 3-2 pitch with the runners going, and the strike-em-out / throw-em-out double play ended the frame.

On came the ‘pens
I would have enjoyed watching these starting pitchers all night. Alas, alas, each starter got through a mere five innings.

[Readers cringe, prepare for the traditional Nachoman rant against wimpy modern pitchers who think they’ve done well pitching five innings every five days, and who cry to their agents if they are asked to throw more than 90 pitches in a start.][1]

No, this time overprotective parenting/managing was not to blame. Mr. Carpenter was being eased back into the rotation from major injury, so he very reasonably wasn’t going to pitch deep into the game. Two rain delays that collectively lasted about an hour sealed Mr. Billingsley’s exit. Thus, for entirely legitimate reasons, both teams put a 1-0 game in the hands of their bullpens.

Immediately the Nachoman’s instinct was to call a local bookie -- if there are in fact bookies in Orange, VA -- and put money down on the Dodgers. Their 1.51 bullpen WHIP[2] comes in ahead of only Detroit; Los Angeles leads the majors at 1.23. The Cards looked to be in a spot of bother protecting that 1-run lead. Note that I just answered this week's quiz. Nice work to Steve from New York... Steve, if you can testify that you knew or guessed at this answer WITHOUT looking it up, I will be impressed enough to appoint you as Assistant Nachoman for New York Affairs, Mets division.

Statistical compliments aside, Dodgers reliever Brian Falkenborg got his ‘pen off to an inauspicious start. Though he struck out Ryan Ludwick, he allowed a double, a single, and (gulp) a walk to 7th place hitter Joe Mather. Yoink. In came Joe Beimel, who has allowed baserunners in seven straight relief appearances (and in 10 of his last 11). He plunked pinch hitter Rick Ankiel on an 0-2 pitch with the bases loaded to force in a run, but then got out of the jam.

A leadoff single in the 7th brought forth Chan Ho Park from the bullpen. How in the living heck can the Dodgers have such a strong bullpen that includes Chan Home Run Park? I don’t think I have ever in my life watched him during a successful outing. When I played computer baseball in 1994, Mr. Park’s avatar was practically unbeatable. Sure enough, and without the Nachoman really noticing at the time, Mr. Park had a few solid years in the late 1990s. A move to Texas in 2001 finished him. (Funny, that seems to happen to a lot of pitchers.) Anyway, Mr. Park came in expressly to face King Albert, who crushed the second pitch well over 400 feet to left field. The Cards led 4-0.

Roman Troncoso pitched a quite effective 8th inning, seemingly for naught. Dodgers bullpen to this point in sum: 3 innings, 3 runs on 4 hits and a walk.

But Nachoman, I thought you complain that those games are meaningless excuses to sell commercial time?
Yeah, last Sunday night I chose to watch preseason football… sorry ‘bout that. Shoulda been watching Phils-Cards, but I couldn’t bear the thought of listening to Joe Morgan for three hours.

Right before the end of the first half, the Redskins quarterback dropped the football soon after a pump fake. John Madden was all over the play: “Who’s the referee?” he said. The referee was Walt Coleman, of Tuck Rule fame. Well spotted, John.

Mr. Coleman ruled a fumble on the field. The replay official asked for a review. (In the last two minutes, the coach can’t challenge; rather, someone in the press box initiates the review.) Problem is, the Skins recovered less than a yard shy of the line of scrimmage. So, if the ruling on the field had been overruled, the Skins would have gained half a yard. Since the spot was not right near the first down sticks, why waste our time? Who cares?

This is why I hate replay… It is utterly impossible to limit replay just to egregious mistakes, as so many talking heads suggest. Think of how many times you’ve sat through an interminable review when the very first replay shown was conclusive; or when it’s been immediately clear that the camera can’t provide any “indisputable” evidence; or when a coach demands a challenge just as an excuse to berate the referee. Football games already last well over 3 hours. Let’s cut 10 minutes off every game and get rid of replay.

Now let’s talk about the maligned St. Louis bullpen.

They started with Brad Thompson, who garnered three ground ball outs on nine pitches. Awesome.

They continued with Kyle McClellan in the 7th and 8th. Though he fell behind nearly every hitter he faced, he got results. He gave up a walk and a single, both of which were erased by a subsequent double play. Six batters, six outs, lead protected. I note once again that it is, indeed, possible for a relief pitcher to throw more than one inning effectively.

“Uh-oh,” declaimed the Nachoman
To protect a 4-run lead, the Cardinals sent in Ron Villone. This gentleman has pitched for 14 years in the majors. In two – ONLY TWO! – of them, his ERA has been under 4.00. The last time he managed a sub-4 ERA was 1997, and even that was a lucky fluke as his WHIP over his 50 innings was an astronomical 1.71.

To face Mr. Villone, the Dodgers sent up the latest poster boy for giving agent Scott Boras a public auto de fe, Andruw Jones. Mr. Jones this year has feasted not on bad pitching but on Jack-In-The-Box – he looks to have gained 100 pounds over his Atlanta days, and has concurrently lost 100 points on his batting average. As recently as 2006, Mr. Jones had been the greatest defensive center fielder of his era, AND a fearsome visage at the plate. With the Dodgers, he has been reduced to a late-inning defensive replacement, and to pinch hitting duty in a seemingly hopeless situation like this one. If Ron Villone could get out any major leaguer, it should have been Andruw Jones.

The second pitch landed in the left field bleachers for Andruw’s 3rd home run of the year, and Mr. Villone landed on the bench.

So where was the pitch that Andruw crushed?
Okay, Ron Villone threw a pitch at belt level and over the middle of the plate. No wonder Andrew Jones hit the ball hard. One of the Nachoman’s broadcasting pet peeves is when announcers assume that ALL hard-hit balls are the result of high pitches that miss their target. Jeff Brantley of the Reds is one of the most common offenders in this department. Mr. Brantley’s analysis technique is usually to describe any home run with “The pitcher got that one up out over the plate.”

Thursday night, Houston's Hunter Pence hit a home run against Josh Fogg on a 2-0 pitch. That’s not a surprise – Mr. Fogg is particularly vulnerable to the home run in the bandbox that is the Great American Ballpark. The surprise was that Reds broadcaster Jeff Brantley admitted that the pitch was at the knees over the outside corner, and was in fact a pretty good pitch.

More kudos

...Thursday night to the Reds broadcast team for NOT getting into a predictable frowney-faced tsk-tsk-fest about maple bats when the barrel of Adam Dunn’s bat flew out toward second base.

Enter Jason Isringhausen.
Now with a 3-run lead in the 9th, the Cards were in an official “save” situation, so they summoned their savior, Jason Isringhausen. I can not in good conscience make sarcastic remarks about Mr. Isringhausen’s career, as he’s had eight straight years of solid relief work. Even just last year his ERA was 2.48, 77% better than league average. This year has been tough on Izzy, though. He lost his closer role temporarily, and was only recently reinstated. This looked like an excellent opportunity to earn an easy save and build confidence. I took no pleasure watching the Dodgers destroy Mr. Izzy slowly and painfully.

Izzy got an out, then allowed two straight singles in front of Manny Ramirez. Even with a 3-run lead, Mr. Izzy seemed afraid of Manny. He nibbled at the corners until Manny walked.

It was obvious that Izzy was done for at this point. Would Mariano The Great ever pitch scared and surrender a walk like this? Would 2000-vintage Trevor Hoffman? No, and no. The more apt closer comparison would be to Brad Lidge the year after he allowed the Devastating Pujols Homer.

A visit from pitching coach Dave Duncan couldn’t stop Mr. Isringhausen’s inevitable collapse… and I do mean collapse in every aspect of his game. With the bases jammed and one out, James Loney hit a dribbler along the first base line. Izzy had an easy play at first, allowing a run, but getting out #2. Unfortunately, Izzy played the ball like a nervous little-leaguer, attempting a barehand pickup-and-throw when he had plenty of time to field the ball properly. The ball remained on the ground, all hands were safe with still only one out, and the tying run had moved to second base.

A run scoring single by Jeff Kent spelled D-O-O-M for Mr. Isringhausen’s night, and probably for his role on the team as well if one believes the GM’s postgame comments. In came Ryan Franklin to mop up the mess. He pitched well, but Casey Blake hit a fly ball deep enough for even Manny Ramirez to score, and extra baseball was in the works.

Cards bullpen to this point, in sum: 4 innings, 4 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks. All of the trouble was the doing of Ron Villone and Jason Isringhausen.

An actual, verbatim quotation from a local news teaser
“A naked protest. Find out why demonstrators are baring all. After the game.” And SPORTS BLOGS are being criticized for being prurient?

And the teams played on…
In the bottom of the 9th, the Cardinals seemed to have the game won. Skip Schumaker led off with a single, and advanced beautifully on a deep fly ball to the right-center field warning track. King Albert drew an intentional walk, bringing up Ryan Ludwick.

Some history: On Sunday against Philadelphia, after a similar bullpen collapse, Mr. Ludwick had a chance to put the Cards ahead in the 8th inning. With the bases loaded and one out, he grounded into a 5-4-3 to end the threat.

Looking for redemption, Mr. Ludwick slammed a ball down the line… but third baseman Casey Blake managed somehow to smother the ball and carry it to the base for the forceout. If that ball had gone through to the outfield, there’s no way that Manny Ramirez, whose defense rivals Adam Dunn’s, could have thrown Schumaker out at the plate. Mr. Blake saved the game for the Dodgers, and put Ludwick at 0-2 in game-winning situations this week.

Extra innings
The Dodgers threatened against Ryan Franklin in the 10th, putting runners at the corners with one out for catcher and #3 hitter Russell Martin… who struck out on a 2-2 pitch in the dirt. A James Loney line out ended the inning.

The Cards put two on with two out in their half of the 10th, but this time Skip Schumaker couldn’t drive in the winning run. On to the 11th.

In the 11th, the Dodgers sent hitters #6, 7, and 8 to the plate. Jeff Kent and Casey Blake made two quick outs. A previous double-switch had put pitcher Cory Wade in the 8th slot. Joe Torre let him hit with two out, even though it was apparent that Mr. Wade would not be pitching anymore. Why? The sole remaining bench player was the backup catcher, whom Mr. Torre wanted to save for a possibly higher-leverage situation later on.

With Wade at the plate, Cardinals pitcher Jaime Garcia issued a walk. To a relief pitcher. After getting the count to 0-2. How pathetic is that? Good thing that Pablo Ozuna grounded out, or Tony La Russa might have eaten his (Mr. Garcia’s) liver for dinner.

Fight! Fight! Aww, that was kinda boring...
In case you didn’t notice, on Monday night Milwaukee’s Prince Fielder shoved pitcher Manny Parra twice in the dugout in an altercation. The Brewers were mum about the cause and effect of the proto-fight, taking a “boys will be boys” position.

From the Cards broadcast booth, in reference to Mr. Fielder’s new herbavoric diet: “If I ate vegetables all day, I’d have a temper, too.”

More on Mr. Fielder, this time from The Onion
“C.C. Sabathia, Prince Fielder Keep Imagining Each Other As Giant Talking Hot Dog, Hamburger”

I don’t mind bad relief pitching so much in extra innings
… because bad pitching gets the game over more quickly.

To be fair, Jason Johnson had his work cut out for him in the 11th, when he was sent in to face the 2-3-4 combination of Adam Kennedy, King Albert, and Ryan Ludwick. Mr. Kennedy lined the first pitch into center for a single. The King popped out – full credit to Mr. Johnson for some NASTY breaking balls – bringing up Ludwick for his THIRD opportunity for a game-winning hit over the last two games.

And the Nachoman rejoiced
This time, Mr. Ludwick deposited a 2-1 pitch onto the grass berm in center for the walk-off dinger. The Cards won, 6-4, and I could go to bed.

Peter Jennings once wore a suit, tie, and a thong at the anchor's desk... right?
ESPN’s sideline eye candy Erin Andrews showed up last week to Wrigley Field in a provocative sundress. She conducted interviews in a “flirty” manner. Internet commentators made the legitimate point that if Ms. Andrews wants to be taken seriously as a journalist as opposed to a hot babe who obtains interviews merely through her sex appeal, she should probably conduct herself in a more professional manner. Predictably, ESPN and others defended Ms. Andrews, and acted as if they had never noticed that male ballplayers and viewers often find her irresistibly attractive. A Deadspin commentator, Stev D., made wonderful use of analogy in the discussion of whether Ms. Andrews’ work qualifies as serious journalism:

“No one made a big deal when Tom Brokaw covered the assasination of RFK wearing nothing but body glitter and a jumbo …sock.”

Postgame fallout
Major credit goes to Ryan Ludwick for his candor in a postgame interview. The reporter tried to kiss up, saying, “Ryan, you’ve been locked in lately!”[3] Mr. Ludwick’s response: “I don’t know about that. I was having a really bad night until that last at-bat.”

As for the Cards bullpen, which has blown 26 saves on the year… here is the precise quote from GM John Mozeliak, courtesy of mlb.com:

"It's disappointing. To get a game pitched so well up until the ninth and then to have the outcome the way it did in terms of a home run, hit, walk, it's tough. I think it's something that [manager Tony La Russa], [pitching coach Dave Duncan] and I will talk about tomorrow, strategize and see what makes the most sense. We can't just keep giving games away like that.”

If I were Jason Isringhausen or Ron Villone, I’d be shaking in my red cleats.

Next week:

Woodberry Forest centerfielder Luke Perry challenges Manny Ramirez and Adam Dunn to a fielding contest. I need to call my bookie again.

[1] I can’t resist pointing out that despite the very public kid gloves with which he was handled, Joba Chamberlain is, as I write, visiting the Angel of Pitching Career Death* about his arm trouble. When, oh when, are organizations going to teach young pitchers how to PITCH rather than how to throw hard? Why won’t awesome young guys like Mr. Chamberlain and his brethren learn to pitch effectively at 80-90% velocity so they can last full games? Aha, I put the rant in the FOOTNOTE so you wouldn’t have to read it in the text!

* I mean, of course, Dr. James Andrews

[2] Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched is generally a better measure of bullpen quality, since relievers so more often bequeath and inherit runners. In late innings, the pitcher to whom a run is charged is often merely a matter of luck. Walks and hits, though, can be without question attributed to the perpetrator.

[3] Note to aspiring journalists: This is a statement, not a question. Questions tend to elicit better responses than statements-plus-microphone-thrust-in-face.

I gotcher post for ya...

2008-08-08T07:47:00.003-04:00

Yeah, don't you worry, I'm working on a post, though there's a good bit more to polish and write. So in the meantime, as has become tradition, a quiz. You may answer in the comment section for credit (whatever that means).

The effectiveness of a relief pitcher is best measured not by ERA but by WHIP (Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched). Which team has the best bullpen WHIP in the majors? Which team has the worst?

Answers in today's post...

NM

Ribbie Reporter -- In Gil we trust? For we must?

2008-08-05T00:29:00.002-04:00

Musings on Meche

I was contemplating Gil Meche's start against the Boston Red Sox earlier tonight. This sort of contemplation is dangerous, because then I start thinking about ERA+, K-BB ratios, Nachoman Quality Starts and other such things. Then I pull open espn.com and baseball reference.com and start looking at Mr. Meche's career numbers. (Before we go any further, I'd like to tell Buzz Bissinger that I have never lived in my mother's basement[1] and in fact have only lived at home on holidays and during the summer since I was 14).
But anyway, back to Mr. Meche. He had the type of start tonight that drives the Nachoman – and sometimes me – to distraction. He went six innings and gave up only four hits. He struck out nine but walked five. He managed to get David Ortiz – who’s always had his number – out three times.[2]
And when it was all said and done, he handed the bullpen a 4-2 lead that turned into a 4-3 victory after a few hiccups from closer Joakim Soria. That’s not a NQS, but I can’t be too upset with managing to hold the Red Sox to only two runs. Obviously Meche was struggling with his control all night, but he managed to dance out of trouble after the first inning (when he allowed the two runs) and turn in five more solid innings. Tonight wasn’t the sort of performance that makes general managers or the folks at Baseball Tonight drool, but it was certainly a workmanlike – and effective – effort.
So what should we make of Meche, who’s in the second year of a 5 year, $55 million contract that was widely reviled when it was announced in the winter of 2007. Last year Meche turned in an excellent season, posting a 3.67 ERA that was more than a run better than the league average and gave him an ERA+ of 128.[3]
This year, however, has been more of a struggle. Meche’s ERA is 4.17, though that’s still below the league average of 4.39. Opponents are hitting a slightly better batting average against him and have a slightly higher OPS (on-base plus slugging).[4] So, by all appearances, Meche is having a mediocre season, one probably not worth $11 million.
If you look deeper, however, you start to wonder if that’s really true. If you throw out April, Meche’s ERA is 3.25. Obviously the Royals pay Meche to pitch well every month, not just after the weather warms up, but even great pitchers go through six or seven start stretches in their career where they scuffle and even stink. Baseball’s a cyclical game that way. Even though his numbers are down, he’s on pace to pitch 206 innings. Last year he threw 214, good enough for eighth best in the AL. So aside from one awful month, Meche has been as good as last year. He’ll probably finish in the top 1o in innings pitched. And at $11 million, he makes less than Barry Zito, Pedro Martinez, Mike Hampton and Jason Schmidt. Everyone knows Zito has been awful. The others haven’t even pitched this year more than once or twice (well, Pedro’s pitched 10 times and run up a nice 6.16 ERA). So yes, Gil Meche is still probably overpaid. And yes, he didn’t look brilliant last night against the Red Sox, but the Royals still won 4-3, so who’s complaining? Besides, we could have been spending all of that money on Barry Zito.

[1] We don’t even have a finished basement in fact. It’s just used for storing junk and serving as a tornado shelter.
[2] Ortiz came into the game hitting something like .450 against Meche in about 20-30 career at bats.
[3] 100 is the league average… this stat lets you compare pitchers across years, leagues, etc. by seeing how much better (or worse) they were than the rest of their peers.
[4] Crud. Now I’ve spent 20 minutes looking up OPS. Did you know that Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds have the six highest OPS seasons in history, with Barry’s 1.4217 in 2004 taking top honors? Think about that: Barry got on base 60(!!!!!) percent of the time that year and still slugged better than .800 in the few at bats where he got a decent pitch to hit. Dang. He may be a scumbag and a steroid user, but that’s wild.

The Tale of Yoslan Herrera

2008-07-27T22:22:00.003-04:00

Starting tomorrow, I will be running an AP Physics institute at Manhattan (NY) College. I’ve experienced a good bit of culture shock already, having arrived just this afternoon from a foreign country (Virginia). More on that possibly later this week, but the relevant baseball issue is that, for the first time, I’m immersed amongst a gaggle of real live Yankees fans.

This week I probably will not be able to post a full Friday column. Rather, I will – when I have the chance – put up shorter pieces. Last Thursday night I worked the Padres-Pirates game for STATS. The pitching matchup scared me to death. The Pads put up converted reliever Clay Hensley, who had a halfway decent 2006 before injuries derailed him in 2007. He was making his first start of the year.

It wasn’t Mr. Hensley who gave me forebodings. No, Yoslan Herrera, the Pirates starter, looked like the perfect fit for the black hole that is the mound at PNC Park. Pirates starters overall had put up a 6-point ERA this year; Mr. Herrera boasted a 19.50 in two starts. In his first outing he walked four in four innings, leading to 6 runs on 11 hits. His control improved in his next start, when he walked no one. Possibly, that’s because he wasn’t in the game long enough, as he left the mound in shame after 1.2 innings, 8 hits, and 7 runs.

Yoslan Herrera is 27, and the starts I’ve described were his first two ever at the major league level. My first thought was, why throw this poor soul to the wolves again? Send him back to the minors, put him in the bullpen, whatever, but if a guy this old looks this bad in two starts, he’s not likely to improve dramatically.

One issue I’d overlooked was pointed out by the San Diego broadcast booth – though Mr. Herrera’s ERA was near 20, he hadn’t been doing THAT much worse than the rest of the Pirates staff. What did a moribund team have to lose by letting him eat a couple of innings? Point taken. Might as well give him one more chance, ‘cause there’s no one else to take his place, and the team ain’t goin’ nowhere.

Perhaps the more important issue I was not aware of before the game was exactly WHY Mr. Herrera had made his debut this year at age 27. He is a Cuban defector. And, he left Mr. Castro the hard way, not by walking out on the Cuban national team, but by sneaking across the straight to Florida on a boat before seeking asylum in the Dominican.[1] Most 27 year olds who haven’t made it in the majors yet are unlikely to do so, ever, because they’ve spent 5-8 years toiling unsuccessfully in the minors. Mr. Herrera had only spent two years on the farm.

Perhaps, then, I should not have been so surprised at the kick-butt outing Mr. Herrera turned in. Working quickly, he simply dominated the Padres. He spotted his fastball, and followed it up with a NASTY twelve-to-six curveball that no one could touch. He controlled that curve, too – he could start it in the zone, getting a swing-and-miss on a ball near the dirt; all the same, he could freeze a batter with it for a called strike three. Now, he wasn’t perfect, as he couldn’t hit the catcher’s glove with his changeup for any amount of money. He needed the mostly solid defense behind him. His overall outing was solid, not spectacular… 6 innings, 6 hits, a walk and 4 strikeouts.

The Pirates pulled Herrera after six innings, even though he had thrown only 96 pitches and was throwing well. Normally, I prefer to see pitchers work deeper into games. In this case, though, I completely agreed with the decision to put the game in the hands of the Pirates questionable bullpen. Why? Because Mr. Herrera needed the confidence boost of the solid outing. The Pirates had roughed up Hensley to the tune of 5-0 by the bottom of the 6th, and had loaded the bases to boot, when a pinch hitter officially replaced Mr. Herrera. The 6-run lead that the Pirates subsequently bequeathed to their Cuban rookie was likely to stand up, even with the likes of Denny Bautista and Sean Burdett toeing the rubber for the third period. Chances were, Mr. Herrera could sit in the dugout and earn his first major league victory, having proven to himself and his team that he is capable of pitching effectively at the highest level.

Now it merely remains for Mr. Herrera to mimic this outing the next time he pitches.

[1] He didn’t officially seek asylum here in the USA, I assume because then he’d have to enter the major league draft. As I understand things, foreign players are true free agents who can negotiate and sign with any team at any time; domestic players may only be free agents if they go undrafted. Thus, it makes good economic sense for a good baseball player to be un-American.